Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Paradise Valley, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:44PM Sunday January 16, 2022 3:23 AM MST (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:37PMMoonset 6:48AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paradise Valley, AZ
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location: 33.62, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 160540 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1040 PM MST Sat Jan 15 2022

UPDATE. Updated Aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Breezy conditions will persist through this afternoon, especially across the Arizona high terrain. Periods of high clouds will move into the area through early next week. Generally dry conditions along with above normal temperatures can be expected through next week.

DISCUSSION. Breezy conditions are currently being observed from southeast to west-central Arizona with wind gusts ranging between 20-30 mph with locally higher gusts, especially across the higher terrain. These higher winds are in response to an enhanced pressure gradient resulting from a strong surface high pressure located over the intermountain region. These enhanced wind gusts will continue through the rest of this afternoon and diminish by sunset, with significantly weaker winds expected on Sunday as the pressure gradient weakens.

Meanwhile, latest objective analysis shows a high pressure aloft situated over the western third of the United States with a cutoff low situated off the California coast. This cutoff low is sending mid to high level cloudiness into the area, with the thicker cloud deck limited to above 20 kft. Below that layer, very dry low to mid tropospheric air exists as evidenced by the latest Phoenix ACARS sounding due to strong subsidence from the aforementioned high pressure aloft. The thicker cloud layer aloft will likely hold back max temperatures a few degrees for today compared to yesterday, with highs likely topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The overall synoptic pattern is expected to remain unchanged during the next couple days with ridging aloft holding firm over the western third of the United States and the cutoff low remaining stationary off the California Coast. Then, by late Monday into Tuesday, as a shortwave trough digs from western Canada into the northern United States, the aforementioned cutoff low will finally begin to make its trek eastward towards the area, although in a much weakened state as it opens up into a wave. Some ensemble members, especially the ones from the ECMWF suite, are indicating some light measurable rain over the area. The NBM continues to have only 10-15% PoPs. However, the environment does not appear to be overly conducive to rain as there is limited moisture in the low-levels and a general lack of forcing.

As we head into the middle to latter half of next week, there is very strong agreement amongst the ensemble clusters of a strong Rex Block setting up off the west coast. The overall setup may allow for a couple of subtle shortwave troughs to overtop the ridge and dive southward into the southwest CONUS. However, there is uncertainty amongst the ensemble suites as to whether or not one of these shortwaves will develop into another cutoff low west of the area by the end of next week into next weekend. At this time, about a third of the GEFS members show this scenario of another cutoff low developing while most of the EPS members do not show it. The scenario of another cutoff low west of the area would introduce precip chances once again. At this time, the NBM PoPs at the end of next week into next weekend is less than 10%.

Lastly, temperatures will likely remain above average through most of next week with highs topping out in the lower to middle 70s. There is even a possibility of upper 70s by next weekend as depicted by the upper end of the NBM guidance if the cutoff low scenario does not materialize as currently depicted by the EPS solution.

AVIATION. Updated 0540Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Easterly winds in the lowest 5kft ASL will continue through the day Sunday before trending toward southeasterly. At the surface, nocturnal downvalley patterns have begun. Overall, easterly surface winds will be favored well into the afternoon before a late afternoon (or early evening) switch to a westerly component. Above the near surface inversion but within 2kft AGL, easterly winds up to 20 kts are anticipated through about 12Z before beginning to weaken. As for sky cover, an upper low centered west of San Diego has been spreading thick cirrus across the area. That will continue the rest of the night before thinning between 14Z- 18Z.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

North and northeasterly flow in the lowest 3-5kft ASL will continue through Sunday. At the surface, light nocturnal patterns (favoring west and northwest directions) will continue through the morning before northerly directions begin to develop by midday. As for sky cover, thick cirrus has begun to thin and will continue to do so from southwest to northeast over the next several hours.

FIRE WEATHER. Monday through Friday: Generally dry conditions with warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the period. A weak disturbance will move through the region on Tuesday bringing a 15% chance for light showers over the Arizona high terrain, but wetting rains are not expected. High pressure centered to the west is then likely to dominate the rest of the period. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will initially range from 15-25% on Monday, but then increase to 25-35% for Tuesday and Wednesday. Drying conditions are then likely late in the period dropping Min RHs back down to 15-25%. Winds will overall be fairly light through the period, but some daytime breeziness may result in gusts to around 20 mph late in the period.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Lojero/Kuhlman AVIATION . AJ FIRE WEATHER . Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Scottsdale Airport, AZ5 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair49°F28°F44%1019.7 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ6 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair48°F24°F39%1019.9 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ12 mi32 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F29°F46%1019.5 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ18 mi29 minNNE 710.00 miFair55°F23°F29%1019.1 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ20 mi25 minN 710.00 miFair46°F29°F52%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSDL

Wind History from SDL (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrN90N8NW7
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S3E55E5NE7SE50E300NE3NE3000W50
1 day ago0000000SW3SW433S4W3000N300NW6N9NE10
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2 days ago000NW4000SW3NW303W4W5NW30----------0000

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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