Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 7:26 PM Moonrise 11:35 PM   Moonset 8:11 AM

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FXUS65 KPSR 272328 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 425 PM MST Sat Apr 27 2024

UPDATE
Updated Aviation

SYNOPSIS
A departing weather system will result in residual breeziness and some showers across the higher terrain areas of northern and eastern AZ today. Higher pressure will follow the departing system and persist through much of next week, resulting in benign weather pattern. Lower desert temperatures will warm back into the nineties by Monday and likely persist in the nineties each day through the week. No rain is in the forecast following today and winds will be lighter.

DISCUSSION
The upper low circulation which brought yesterday's windy conditions and evening thunderstorms in now pushing into Colorado early this afternoon. This potent low and strong upper level jet around its southern half is helping drive a Plains severe weather outbreak.
Back here in the southern deserts, the low is still close enough to create some breezy conditions today. Not nearly as strong as yesterday, but still with some peak gusts up to 20-30 mph this afternoon. There is also still sufficient moisture and minimal but high enough instability for surface-based convection to develop this afternoon through this evening. Activity should remain confined to the northern AZ high terrain, but with the northwest flow a few showers and maybe a storm could drift into parts of NE Maricopa and S Gila counties. Impacts from the convection, should any make it into Maricopa and S. Gila counties will likely be limited, few hundredths of an inch of rain, gusty winds, and small hail.

The height field will rise Sunday into Monday as troffing is replaced by quasi-zonal flow. This will result in warming temperatures, with highs going from low to mid 80s today, back to near normal Sunday, and then back into the low to mid 90s Monday.
The temperatures and overall weather through all of next week will be mostly steady-state, with very little day-to-day changes.
Lower desert highs are forecast to continue to reach the low to mid 90s each day, with overnight/morning lows in the 60s. These temperatures will lead to daily widespread minor HeatRisk. No rain is in the forecast and skies will be mostly clear. Winds will also be lighter most days, with typical afternoon 15-20 mph gusts. Beyond Wednesday however, global ensembles show a lot of uncertainty regarding a deeper trough pattern in the west. There is at least strong agreement that the core of the trough pattern will remain well to the north, mainly through the Great Basin, but uncertainty in the amplitude of the longwave trough pattern and uncertainty in timing of potential shortwaves will affect potential for some gustier conditions mid to late week and could have a slight impact on temperatures.

AVIATION
Updated at 2325Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major weather concerns will exist through Sunday afternoon as SCT decks clear during the evening. Forecast confidence is excellent that frequent W/SW gusts around 20kt will relax after sunset, then revert to an easterly component after midnight. The switch back to a westerly direction should occur slightly earlier than usual Sunday late morning/early afternoon with only modest late afternoon gustiness.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues will exist through Sunday afternoon under clear skies. Winds across the region will favor a W/NW component through the period with little in the way of gustiness.

FIRE WEATHER
Residual breeziness from a departing weather system can be expected for today with afternoon and early evening gusts ranging between 20- 30 mph. Some showers may affect the far eastern districts later today, but with minimal impacts. MinRHs will range between 15-20% across the lower deserts to 30-40% across the far eastern districts.
A significant warming trend takes place Sunday through early next week with little change in temperatures expected by the middle to latter of next week. With the warming temperatures, MinRHs will generally range between 7-15%. Winds beginning Sunday and continuing through most of next week will be lighter with typical afternoon upslope breeziness expected. There is potential for some increased breeziness toward the latter half of next week with a system(s)
passing well to the north, but confidence is still low at this time.



PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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