Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 4:47 AM   Moonset 6:54 PM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 343 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Through 7 am - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Wed - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon. Fri night - W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 343 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the area into Thu while a sfc trof extends across the carolinas. Combined, modest sw winds will result, bordering sca potential Thu. A cold front accompanied with scattered convection will move through the area Thu into Fri. High pressure will build into the area in the wake of the departing front going into the upcoming weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 070846 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 446 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid conditions expected. Scattered convection across the area this morning will lift NE of the region by midday. Limited convection expected Wed however by late in the week, a cold front accompanied by strong convection will move through late in the work week. High pressure will follow bringing drier and cooler conditions into the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Ongoing scattered showers with isolated tstorms will be traversing roughly the northern 1/2 of the ILM CWA this morning.
This in response to the mid-level s/w trof pushing across. Will includes POPs in the low to mid chance categories specifically for this pcpn. Otherwise, the s/w trof lifts E to NE of the FA by midday taking the convection threat with it. Meanwhile, with highs in the mid to upper 80s today, lower 80s at the beaches, expect a sea breeze to develop and push not too far inland as flow aloft will become W to NW. Have indicated a low chance for convection along this sea breeze. Upper ridging to dominate later today thru tonight with associated subsidence keeping convection at bay tonight. Sfc pressure gradient should tighten-some this aftn and remain thru tonight, keeping winds active across the FA which should be enough to keep fog potential to a minimum tonight. Lows tonight to remain closer to summer-like with upper 60s to lower 70s commonplace.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The heat wave peaks on Wednesday with all places away from the immediate coast topping 90. The mid level ridge axis will be just offshore but it will still act to suppress all but isolated convection. There will be quite a bit of instability but with little to no forcing and fairly high LFC's (approaching 5kft) once again convective coverage should be minimal. The pattern starts to change on Thursday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes pushing a cold front in our direction. This will lead to a mainly late day increase in shower and storm coverage as well as possibly their intensity.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
One last day of showers and storms on Friday before front moves through and dry air arrives. Guidance is trending a bit stronger with the mid level wave driving the front possibly offering a severe weather threat. The pattern shift is complete by Saturday with the main upper trough in the East, allowing much cooler and drier air to spill into the area. Expect a weekend with seasonable highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s...much cooler than the mid week period but actually quite close to normal. A secondary cool front may push through on Monday. Any guidance showing precip with its arrival looks highly suspect.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mainly VFR thru the pre-dawn hrs, except inland terminals may see MVFR ceilings around daybreak Tue. SW winds should stay active enough to keep rad fog at bay. Still there is an outside chance for IFR stratus ceilings at those same inland terminals around daybreak Tue. Included VCSH for the slowly decaying cluster of showers/tstorms approaching from upstream, ie. from the west. Upper level disturbance exits the area Tue, leaving subsidence aloft in its wake. Diurnally driven convection will be limited to the sea breeze and the Carolinas trof as focal points of convergence. Winds become WSW to SW 10-15 kt during the aftn/evening and slowly diminish to 5 to 10 kt at the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Looking at VFR dominating late Tue night into early Thu with limited/isolated convection. Threat of more widespread strong convection and flight restrictions Thu into early Fri ahead of a CFP. Clearing later Fri with VFR dominating thru Sat.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Sfc high centered offshore from the SE States Coast, will get slide slightly further E and S this period. At the same time, sfc trof across the central Carolinas becomes better established while frontal systems remain across the Mid- Atlantic States. This will result in a dynamic sfc pressure pattern conducive of SW to WSW wind directions. A tightening sfc pg will also be active resulting in 10-15 kt speeds increasing to around 15 kt today, with a 15 to 20 kt range to occur tonight. Seas generally in a 2 to 4 ft range with a few 5 footers. SSE-SSW wind waves at 5 second periods to dominate with an underlying small 10+ second period Easterly swell.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Southwesterly flow typical of the warm season in place early in the period as high pressure sits off the coast. The persistence of the fetch will add swell energy to the wind waves and by Thursday we may attain SCA criteria. Cold front moves through later Friday leading to veering winds that will also abate in speed. The swell will persist but also lessen. Wind gets all the way around to the north on Saturday before backing kicks in as another weak boundary approaches from the NW.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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