Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atlanta, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 7:03PM Saturday October 16, 2021 3:58 AM EDT (07:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:25PMMoonset 2:42AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlanta, GA
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location: 33.76, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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FXUS62 KFFC 160620 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 220 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021


UPDATE.

06z Aviation update below.

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 1020 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

.Late Evening Update.

A line of pre-frontal showers (with a few embedded thunderstorms) is tracking eastward across northeastern AL and east-central TN this evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE of 500 J/kg at most across this area, including across the far NW corner of the CWA. Even though progged instability is quite low overnight, am maintaining a slight chance of thunder across far north GA and NW GA through 08z, as in addition to occasional lightning strikes, decent effective bulk shear could make for a storm or two with gusty winds. Made some tweaks to near-term PoPs to capture current radar trends and latest high-res model guidance. Also made minor tweaks to near-term temps, dew points, and sky cover.

Martin

PREV DISCUSSION . /Issued 815 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION . /Issued 303 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/ .

Our string of very warm days will come to an end after today as a strong cold front is knocking on the door from the northwest. Temperatures have warmed well above seasonal normals this afternoon, but records look to be largely safe (though Atlanta will be close). Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase across the Tennessee Valley through this evening ahead of the front with a risk for severe weather in those areas. However, for our area, despite favorable dynamics, both instability and moisture quality will be anemic as the front reaches our CWA, and the risk for strong and severe thunderstorms will remain to our northwest with this system.

By the time the line of prefrontal convection reaches northwest Georgia overnight into early Saturday morning, significant weakening will be ongoing. Thus, while an isolated embedded thunderstorm or two is possible in northwest Georgia, showers will largely be the rule. Showers will rapidly weaken and diminish as they approach metro Atlanta, and most areas outside of far north Georgia will likely see little if any QPF with this frontal passage. Higher QPF amounts in far north Georgia may reach a quarter inch or so.

Much cooler and drier air will infiltrate the area behind the front on Saturday. Gusty northwest winds will increase through the day with occasional gusts over 25 mph expected, though remaining below Wind Advisory criteria. While minimum relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds, conditions will need to be monitored for a possible Fire Danger Statement on Saturday given gusty winds and little in the way of rainfall to moisten dry fuels. With the cold air advection behind the front, temperatures will not warm much through the afternoon and remain in the 60s across north Georgia. Far southeast areas will still reach the 80s ahead of the front, however. Lows Sunday morning will dip into the 40s areawide with a few spots in the northeast Georgia mountains likely dropping into the upper 30s.

RW

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/.

No major changes made to the extended forecast.

The extended forecast begins with a high pressure ridge building into the area from the west behind the exiting frontal boundary from the short term. Additionally, the exiting front brings cooler than average temperatures to the region at the beginning of the week and calm weather. Widespread morning low temperatures in the 40s are expected from Sunday through Tuesday while high temperatures get up into the 60s and 70s. With high pressure dominating the area through most of next week, a warming trend through the end of the period brings temperatures back above climo by days 6 and 7.

By midweek, a cut off low marches across the northern Great Plains with a longwave trough digging southward from the Great Lakes Region Thursday. Uncertainty in the global model suite remains about the amplitude of the longwave trough and positioning of the parent cut off low, ultimately resulting in some variability in the guidance for how much moisture will be available over the state. The Euro and Canadian models have a weaker cut off low positioned further west while the GFS produces a stronger cut off low further east that is more aggressive with moisture advection into the CWA. PoPs remain low throughout the end of the long term forecast period due to uncertainty in the model guidance at this time.

01

AVIATION. 06Z Update . Mainly initial VFR conditions, though a cold front will bring some MVFR cigs to KATL and nearby sites along with VCSH by 12z this morning. Brief IFR cigs are possible as well. KCSG looks to also have some MVFR cigs after 10/12z. Shower coverage should be diminishing shortly after and kept out mention for other southern/eastern sites. Initial SW winds swing west to NW later this morning with front passage and increase to 14-18 kts gusting 22-28 kts by late morning into afternoon. Expect clearing skies also by afternoon. NW winds continue this evening though lose gusts after about 01z Sunday.

//ATL Confidence . 06Z Update . Medium on shower coverage near KATL this morning. Medium on IFR cig potential this morning. High on all else.

Baker

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Athens 75 46 70 45 / 10 0 0 0 Atlanta 69 48 68 46 / 20 0 0 0 Blairsville 63 40 63 39 / 50 0 0 0 Cartersville 67 45 67 44 / 30 0 0 0 Columbus 74 49 71 48 / 10 0 0 0 Gainesville 68 46 68 45 / 20 0 0 0 Macon 79 48 73 45 / 10 0 0 0 Rome 68 46 69 44 / 20 0 0 0 Peachtree City 70 46 69 45 / 20 0 0 0 Vidalia 84 51 72 48 / 20 10 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Martin LONG TERM . 01 AVIATION . Baker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton County Airport-Brown Field, GA5 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair66°F64°F93%1012.8 hPa
Atlanta, Hartsfield - Jackson Atlanta International Airport, GA7 mi67 minSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds68°F64°F87%1012.8 hPa
Atlanta, De Kalb-Peachtree Airport, GA10 mi66 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist65°F63°F93%1012.2 hPa
Marietta / Dobbins Air Force Base, GA13 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair67°F65°F91%1012.7 hPa
Cobb County International Airport - McCollum Field, GA20 mi69 minSW 410.00 miFair68°F65°F90%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFTY

Wind History from FTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr0000000SW5SW6040W4W5S5S30SW4000000
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2 days ago00000000NE30--0NW4SW3S4000000000

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