Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:10 AM   Moonset 3:16 PM

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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1232 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog near the coast late.Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog near the coast in the morning.Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.Tue night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1232 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Benign marine conditions continue this weekend into next week. A series of weak fronts will approach from the west and stall inland from the coast early next week, bringing a little better chance for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KILM 040621 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 221 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as due to several upper level disturbances and localized low pressure. High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week due to an approaching frontal system.

UPDATE
No changes to the forecast with the mid evening update. Next several hours the forecast is fog oriented and with inherited good coverage...it's probably a fool's gold to fine tune but will take a second look later.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Persistent low level south-southeasterly flow will lead to another night of saturation near ground level. Best chance for fog, potentially dense, will be across the Cape Fear region and possibly parts of coastal northeast SC. Confidence in fog development decreases further inland as edge of mid/high level cloud deck will be across western parts of the CWA May be more low stratus inland vs the expected fog closer to the coast. Regardless, any fog/stratus will clear after sunrise.

Temps will be only slightly lower on Saturday, with highs in the low 80s. Main forecast problem in the near term is rain chances beginning midday Saturday and continuing through the day. There is going to be a rather sharp moisture gradient in the vicinity of I-95 during the day Saturday, with 1.6" PWAT to the west and near an inch at the coast. This is mainly due to rather dry mid levels around offshore ridge, with 20% RH at 700mb at the coast tomorrow afternoon. Current thinking is scattered storms (40-50% chance)
possible across western parts of the CWA beginning midday, with upper level impulses moving across from the SW around ridge offshore and trough to the NNW. How far inland that intrusion of mid level dry air gets will determine edge of best rain chances.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Pulses of shortwave energy overhead paired with localized lower pressure leads to shower/storm chances through the short term period. Sat night the coast could remain dry before moisture starts to recover late. The axis of better moisture will push into the area along with the shortwave Sun with continued chances for convection, particularly during the afternoon and along the sea breeze. The shortwave will move offshore Sun night with activity expected to wind down overnight. Another shortwave approaches Mon with greater precip chances with the addition of instability. Highs in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Rain chances continue through Tues where one last push of energy moves through aloft before ridging builds in for midweek with quiet weather. Under this ridge, highs will increase into the 90s with humid conditions. No heat advisory concerns with the current forecast. High temp records for Wilmington NC and Florence SC are a couple degrees above what is in the forecast for Wed and Thurs, so this heat will be something to keep an eye on. Rain chances return late Thurs through the end of the period with an approaching frontal system.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Looking at VFR/MVFR conditions thru 08Z, then dropping to IFR/LIFR at the coastal terminals with mid and upper level clouds possibly limiting the inland terminals to just IFR at its worst. Between 08z and 12z, BR/FG lowering vsbys and sub 500 ft OVC or VVs will dominate. After 13z, SSE-S 5 to 10 kt winds pick up and the days heating commences, which should dissipate any leftover flight restrictions rather quickly. Some guidance indicates possible convection across the inland terminals this aftn and will indicate with VCTS, this followed by prob30 for shra thru this evening for the same inland terminals.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic visibility and ceiling restrictions Sun into Mon. Otherwise, looking at VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the mainstay Tue into Wed.

MARINE
Through Saturday...Benign marine conditions continue through Saturday courtesy of offshore high pressure. Seas linger in the 1-2 ft range tonight and tomorrow, combination of 1-2 ft SE wind wave and 1 ft E swell. South-southeast winds persist, predominantly less than 10 kts outside of localized sea breeze enhancement Saturday afternoon. May see some patchy fog close to the Cape Fear coastline early Saturday morning, but confidence is low on how low visibilities may get and how far offshore any fog may impact.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Flow around the Bermuda high will lead to SE to SW flow through the period. Sub-SCA conditions with wind speeds 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 ft increasing to 3-4 ft Wed with an increasing southerly wind wave and some long period swells from the E/NE.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cape Fear
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Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:53 AM EDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:16 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:25 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:44 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Fear, North Carolina, Tide feet

Fort Caswell
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Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:14 AM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:39 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:46 PM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:07 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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