Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM   Moonset 7:09 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 070552 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1252 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Today through Wednesday Afternoon/

A relatively quiet day has come to an end with little to no showers and storms to be had across the region. While the evening 00Z FWD sounding showed a very unstable atmosphere, storm development was quite lacking as the necessary source of lift remained well to our north. Up in Oklahoma, discrete storms and clusters continue to zipper south along the dryline, and are progged to move east through the rest of the overnight hours. CAM guidance continues to confine storm chances to just north of the Red River, but we cannot rule out the low possibility that a storm may develop a bit more south in our northern tier of counties through this morning.
Elsewhere will continue to remain dry.

Otherwise, a cold front will continue its southward trek as a shortwave disturbance swings around the periphery of the main upper low. This frontal passage will ultimately result in a temporary northwest wind shift through the first half of this afternoon.
The front will eventually stall across the region as its upper level support ejects to the northeast. Even in the presence of the stalled front, afternoon temperatures region-wide will be able to climb into the 80s as little cold air advection is expected post- front. Later towards early evening, deepening low surface pressure to our northwest will shift winds back to the south and urge the front northward as a warm front in response. This will place all of North and Central Texas back into the warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s expected once again going into midweek. Guidance is continuing to pick up on the potential for isolated storms in Central Texas this evening, but has backed off some in the most current runs. The inhibition to storm development today is a lack of appreciable lift overhead, and so have not included mentionable precipitation chances this afternoon and evening.

Our next chance at severe weather will be on Wednesday as a sharpening dryline just to our west will become a focus for storm initiation as another shortwave moves across the Central Plains and spreads forcing for ascent over the region. The dryline should gradually move east over the course of the afternoon, eventually ending up closer to I-35 later in the day. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of this boundary through the end of the short term period. Forecast soundings show steepening lapse rates and abundant instability and deep layer shear, indicative of strong to severe storms primarily capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds.

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 244 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024/ /Tuesday Night Through The Weekend/

Temperatures well above normal will continue on Wednesday as an upper-level ridge settles in across the Southern Plains. Further supporting this mid-week warmth will be our southwesterly winds, which will aid in allowing afternoon highs on Wednesday to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s across North and Central Texas.
With dew points hanging out in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will quickly approach the mid to upper 90s. A few locations across Central Texas may even reach the 100 degree heat index mark.
While this sort of heat is not necessarily unprecedented for this time of year, it will be important to keep an eye on friends and loved ones who may be a bit more vulnerable to heat illness.

The other major talking point for this forecast involves the continued potential for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week. Our best potential will be through the afternoon and evening hours on both Wednesday and Thursday. Much of this activity will fire off along and east of the I-35 corridor, across both North and Central Texas. The environment will remain supportive of severe weather, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and plenty of atmospheric instability to work with.
Sufficient shear for storm organization will also exist, leading to our main threats including large hail and damaging winds. On top of this, antecedent conditions remain conducive for additional flooding concerns and will need to be closely monitored across portions of Central Texas. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact spatial coverage of thunderstorms as we are still a few days out. Details will continue to be refined over the next several days regarding this potential for severe weather through the middle of the week, so continue to check back for updates to the forecast as we move into the week ahead.

Much cooler and drier weather will return to the entire forecast area as a cold front sweeps through North and Central Texas. Highs through the weekend will cool into the mid to upper 70s through the afternoon, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. This will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the weekend. As an aside, we are approaching that time of year where the days with cool, continental air are numbered.
While it's hard to say if this will be our last substantial cold front of the season, the odds for additional cold fronts as we move into the year are decreasing. Enjoy it while you can!

Reeves

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

Concerns: MVFR stratus returns early this morning and again overnight into tomorrow morning; FROPA and northerly wind shift this morning.

Stratus is streaming up into southern Central Texas and will continue northward over the rest of the overnight hours, eventually blanketing all of the TAF sites by daybreak. Unlike the previous few days, the stratus will not stick around as an cold front will move through the region and scour out low level clouds. Expect FROPA and its accompanying wind shift at D10 around 14Z and at ACT around 15Z. North to northwest winds will prevail at the TAF sites through the mid afternoon, before the front is pushed back northward and winds return to the south. Southerly winds will then remain through the rest of the period. MVFR stratus will stream northward late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, and will be covered in full in future TAF issuances.

Prater


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 89 65 80 61 / 5 20 20 20 10 Waco 71 87 68 80 62 / 10 20 10 30 20 Paris 70 87 61 80 57 / 10 30 40 30 20 Denton 69 89 60 79 57 / 0 10 20 20 10 McKinney 70 87 63 79 58 / 5 20 30 20 10 Dallas 73 90 66 80 61 / 5 20 20 20 10 Terrell 70 87 64 80 58 / 10 20 30 30 20 Corsicana 73 89 69 82 61 / 10 20 20 30 20 Temple 70 89 69 81 61 / 10 10 5 20 10 Mineral Wells 69 90 61 79 57 / 0 5 10 20 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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