Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:00PM Sunday January 16, 2022 6:01 PM PST (02:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:52PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 170010 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 510 PM MST Sun Jan 16 2022

UPDATE. Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions along with periods of high clouds can be expected the rest of today through tomorrow. A weak weather system may result in a few light showers for Tuesday. High pressure aloft building off the west coast of the United States will result in mostly dry conditions by the second half of the week into next weekend. Slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 70s will prevail during the next several days.

DISCUSSION. Fairly tranquil conditions expected to prevail today through tomorrow as a high pressure aloft continues to sit over the area. This will continue to result in dry conditions along with max temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 70s. Out to the west, just off the California Coast, continues to sit a cutoff low, which has been nearly stationary for the past several days as it has been blocked off from the aforementioned high pressure situated over the western United States. This cutoff low will continue to send waves of high clouds into the area which will produce filtered sunshine at times as well as keep our overnight lows from getting too cold, with readings expected to generally be at to slightly above average.

The blocking high will finally break down late Monday into Tuesday as a strong shortwave trough moves from western Canada into the northern United States. As the high breaks down, this will allow the aforementioned cutoff low to finally make its move eastward towards the area on Tuesday. This low as it moves eastward will weaken into an open wave. Enough low-level moisture as well as weak forcing for ascent may be present to spark a few light showers, especially over the higher terrain area north and east of Phoenix. However, a few showers cannot be ruled out across the lower deserts as well. The PoPs on the latest NBM has increased slightly to 20-30%, with the highest PoPs favored across the higher terrain. There is very strong agreement amongst the deterministic and ensemble suites that QPF amounts will be very light, less than a tenth of an inch, with most areas likely observing no measurable rainfall. High temperatures for Tuesday will likely be slightly cooler compared to Monday due to increased cloud cover.

As we head towards the latter half of the week into next weekend, there continues to be excellent agreement amongst the different ensemble clusters of another strong Rex Block setting up just off the west coast of the United States. The main question remains if a shortwave or two that overtops the ridge off the west coast dives southward and closes off into another cutoff low near the area late in the week into next weekend. There are some indications amongst some deterministic as well as a small number of ensemble solutions of this being the case. However, those solutions that produce a cutoff low barely show any QPF for our area. The NBM guidance essentially continues to keep PoPs below 5%. Therefore, the most likely outcome at this time is for conditions to remain dry with above normal temperatures.

AVIATION. Updated 0010Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Light winds (around 6 kts or less) following typical diurnal trends are expected at all terminals through the TAF period. Expect periods of calm to light variable winds as well. SCT to BKN clouds will persist through tonight with a layer developing around 9-10 kft tonight. Clouds should become FEW by Monday evening before 8-10 kft CIGs redevelop Tuesday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Very light winds, with extended periods of vaiability, are expected through the TAF period at both terminals. Directional component will favor W overnight at KIPL and S to SSE during the day Monday. Variable winds will be common at KBLH, with a N to W component favored through the night and SE Monday afternoon. BKN high clouds will stick around through tonight with FEW to SCT clouds based around 8-10 kft also developing. The clouds clear up Monday morning and then FEW cumulus around 7-8 kft may develop in the afternoon.

Winds at KIPL will favor a northerly component through this afternoon before becoming westerly overnight and southerly by Monday morning. At KBLH, winds will favor a northerly component. At both terminals there will be periods of variable wind direction. Speeds at the terminals are expected to remain aob 8 kts. SCT- BKN clouds around 9 kft are expected at KIPL through the morning before scattering out. Otherwise, expect SCT clouds to mostly remain aoa 20 kft through much of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER. Tuesday through Saturday: Generally dry conditions with warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the period. A weak disturbance will move through the region on Tuesday bringing a 15% chance for light showers over the Arizona high terrain, but wetting rains are not expected. High pressure centered to the west is then likely to dominate the rest of the period. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will start out at 25-35% for Tuesday and Wednesday before decreasing later this week, dropping Min RHs back down to 15-25%. Winds will overall be fairly light through the period, but some daytime breeziness may result in gusts to around 20 mph late in the period.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . None. CA . None.

DISCUSSION . Lojero/Kuhlman AVIATION . Benedict FIRE WEATHER . Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair64°F33°F32%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRM

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrSE40NW5NW3N4N30NW40N5NW4N4N5W4N3N4NW4N3W33SW3SE40SW3
1 day agoNW7NW6NW80N7NW5N5N6NE5N6N3NW5N3NW3NW6NW5W5W5W400E3SE40
2 days agoW40000000NW30NW30W40NW4N44NW6NW6NW10N9
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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