Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Isle Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:41PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:47 AM EDT (08:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 317 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Through 7 am..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Sun..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt, becoming w. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 317 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. An approaching cold front will slide off the carolina coasts and across the area waters this evening. Sca conditions will occur primarily during and after the cfp, through midday Sun. Scattered showers and isolated tstms will be possible late Sat aftn and evening associated with the cfp. Strong high pressure will build in from the gulf coast states Sun thru early next week, with the center of this high overhead during the mid-week period of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Isle Beach, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 160819 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 419 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably warm conditions expected today ahead of an approaching cold front, before a moderately strong cold front crosses the coast Saturday evening. Cooler and drier air will overspread the region early Sunday through early next week, with cool mornings, and mild days through much of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Minimal amount of clouds expected today ahead of an approaching cold front. This will allow aftn temps to reach or exceed local Max temp records for today, Sat October 16th.

. Record Highs . WILMINGTON NC . 87 in 2018. LUMBERTON NC . 92 in 1925. FLORENCE SC . 88 in 2018. NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC . 88 in 1990.

From mid-late this afternoon thru mid-evening, is the time-line of the CFP from west to east, and associated swath of clouds and 30-40 POPs of mainly showers with isolated thunderstorms. The best and main dynamics associated with the upper trof and it's interaction with the sfc cold front will remain north of the FA and so will the possibility of severe tstms. Although, can not rule out either convective gusts 40+ mph or even during or just after the synoptic CFP, due to the change in airmass.

The rather progressive upper trof will quickly drive the sfc cold front across the FA this aftn and early evening and to well offshore by midnight. Quite the dry atm column come Sun morning, with model PWs around 1.5 inches prior to the CFP late Sat, dropping to less than 1/3rd of an inch by daybreak Sun. Rather tighten sfc pg after the CFP, will extend thru Sun and combined with the associated CAA, expect breezy post cold frontal NW-N winds overnight thru Sun, under Clear/Sunny skies. Min temps tonight will generally run around the 50 degree mark . whereas Max temps Sun will struggle to break into the lower 70s. Believe it or not, these are what the Normal Min/Max temps should be this time of the year. "Indian Summer" across the Carolinas will come to an end . for the time being.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A negatively tilted trough will pivot across the NE CONUS, as a 500 mb ridge axis shifts from the central plains across the MS River valley. This will produce deep WNW flow and a very dry column through the period. At the surface, broad high pressure centered over the lower MS River valley Sunday night will slide east to the southern Appalachians by Tuesday night. A weak gradient could lead to some decoupling Sunday night, and almost certainly by Tuesday night. The coolest air will be in place Sunday night, with low temperatures expected to drop into the lower-mid 40s away from the coast, and upper 40s at the beaches. Slightly warmer air will be working in from the west Monday and Monday night. This will lead to highs Monday in the lower 70s, and lows Monday generally in the mid 40s, except lower 50s at the beaches. With decoupling more widespread, some areas will still likely fall into the lower 40s Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Upper ridge axis will continue to transition eastward and dampen, moving offshore Thursday. Deep WSW flow will set up as closed 500 mb low drops over the Great Lakes, and surface high moves offshore. As a result, temperature trends will be on the rise through the period, reaching around 80 degrees for highs Thu- Fri, which is 3-5 degrees above climo. Moisture ahead of a late week cold front continues to appear very limited, so although a slight chance for showers returns to the forecast, QPF values remain generally low.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. MVFR/IFR due to ground fog and vertical vsby, should dissipate once the SW winds commence either late in the pre-dawn Sat hrs or just after daybreak. Otherwise, looking at VFR with a small window of sub-VFR conditions from convection associated with the CFP late this aftn and early evening. Sw flow will further increase later this morning, leading up to the CFP. Look for an abrupt veering of the winds to NW-N after FROPA with a gust or 2 possibly approaching 30-40 kt not out of the question. However, low confidence to place in the TAFs other than mentioning here at this point in time. Look for skies to clear out quickly after FROPA, with SKC dominating at the end of the 24 hr TAF Issuance Period.

Extended Outlook . Mainly VFR expected thru the period with cool and dry high pressure prevailing Sun thru Wed with breezy NW to N winds expected Sun.

MARINE. Through Sunday . SCA already in effect for all waters from 6 pm today through noon Sunday . mainly for the SW winds increasing to near SCA levels prior to the CFP this evening, but mainly due to post cold frontal gusty NW-N winds. The sfc pg to tighten dramatically after the CFP, combined with excellent CAA across SSTs well into the 70s. A few gusts above 30+ kt is possible during the abrupt air mass change during and immediately after the CFP. MWS or even SMW may be issued to identify these stronger wind gusts that may occur outside of any convection in the area. Midday Sun may be to early to end the SCA given the continued tightened sfc pg and CAA, and the 1025mb+ center of high pressure still west of the Appalachian mountains. Seas will generally be governed by short period wind induced waves . except for this morning when the weak Easterly swell at 7 to 9 second periods will dominate for the last time. The NW-N wind fetch will remain a rather short distance and as a result seas will not build to SCA thresholds given the strong winds.

Sunday night through Thursday . Surface high will move eastward across the southern Appalachians Sunday night to off the SC coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Northerly winds look to remain a bit elevated Sunday evening, with some mixing down of 20-25 kt gusts early. Winds will settle down a bit later Sunday night into Monday and back to the west, however CAA over warmer SSTs will allow for some gusts approaching 20 kt to continue into Monday morning. The center of high pressure will build across the SC coast Monday and Tuesday, then move offshore Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in a SW trajectory by midweek, with speeds 15 kt or less.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . DCH NEAR TERM . DCH SHORT TERM . CRM LONG TERM . CRM AVIATION . DCH MARINE . DCH/CRM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 7 mi40 min W 9.7G14 76°F 77°F1012.2 hPa
SSBN7 7 mi37 min 76°F1 ft
41108 23 mi78 min 76°F2 ft
MBIN7 30 mi48 min 0G1.9 71°F 1011.4 hPa (-0.7)
WLON7 32 mi54 min 68°F 75°F1011.3 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 33 mi54 min 71°F
MBNN7 35 mi48 min WSW 1G1.9 70°F 1011.8 hPa (-0.6)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi54 min SW 1.9G2.9 71°F 77°F1011.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi100 min SW 5.8G9.7 75°F 77°F1012.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 39 mi41 min 77°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi38 min WSW 7.8G12 77°F 80°F1012.2 hPa70°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi53 minN 07.00 miFair64°F62°F93%1012.5 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi55 minWSW 38.00 miFair67°F66°F97%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW30NW3N4N30SE5E4SE7SE5SE6SE4SE30000000000
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2 days ago--------N7N8NE4N4E30E4E5E5SE30000000000

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Sat -- 03:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:08 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:20 PM EDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 AM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:28 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:51 PM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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