Sunrise 6:50 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:53 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 281827 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 227 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024


Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Dry weather and partly cloudy skies will continue on Monday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are be possible Monday night and Tuesday in north Georgia, with more isolated activity south of Interstate 20.

Monday through Tuesday:

An upper level ridge and associated surface high off the coast of the Carolinas will produce quiet and dry weather in Georgia on Monday. Expect widespread fair weather cumulus in the afternoon, highs in the lower 80s and southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph.

A weak shortwave trough will tack though the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians Monday night and Tuesday. As this feature moves through rain and thunderstorm chances (20-70%) will develop in our region.
Rainfall should be most widespread in the mountains of northern Georgia, with precipitation becoming much spottier south of Interstate 20. Modest midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7.0 C/km) ahead of this system could lead to decent SBCAPE profiles if it weren't for projected surface dewpoints being in the upper 50s. Due to this limited instability potential, any stronger convection should be limited with this system. If any stronger storms do occur they would be most probable during peak heating Tuesday afternoon.

Albright

LONG TERM
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Very warm and mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late in the week into the weekend.

The departing shortwave will give way to upper level ridging through the remainder of the work week. Other than isolated lingering showers and thunderstorms in the SE Tue evening and again Wed, this ridge should usher in a couple of days of dry weather. This will also be the warmest stretch of the long term period, with temperatures rising well into 80s across most non-mountainous areas.
In fact, some locations will rise above 90 degrees (with the best chance on Thursday afternoon near and S of Macon). These highs will will be about 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

The ridge will begin to break down on Friday as a short wave moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The combination of the approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist air in place will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the area (with the best chances across N and N central GA. With the fairly weak dynamic energy, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain mostly diurnal in nature, with widespread organized thunderstorms not currently anticipated. High temperatures will still be about 5 degrees above normal.

SEC

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions (unrestricted visibility and ceilings AOA 4000 ft AGL) and east to southeast winds (3 to 12 kt from 100-150 degrees)
will prevail in the region through 09Z Monday. Areas of IFR or MVFR ceilings (600-2500 ft AGL) may develop after 09Z, with any coverage being highest between 10Z and 13Z Monday. Winds should become southerly at 5 to 10 kt after 14Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Moderate confidence in the KATL TAF.
There greatest area of uncertainty in the TAF is the potential for IFR/MVFR ceilings between 09Z and 14Z Monday.

Albright

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 54 80 59 81 / 0 0 20 40 Atlanta 59 81 63 80 / 0 0 30 50 Blairsville 52 77 57 73 / 0 0 40 70 Cartersville 58 83 61 79 / 0 10 50 60 Columbus 61 84 64 84 / 0 10 20 40 Gainesville 56 79 61 78 / 0 0 30 50 Macon 58 83 62 84 / 0 0 10 40 Rome 59 83 62 79 / 0 10 60 60 Peachtree City 58 82 62 81 / 0 0 30 50 Vidalia 58 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 30

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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