Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 3:39 AM   Moonset 3:48 PM

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FXUS65 KPSR 040556 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1056 PM MST Fri May 3 2024

UPDATE
Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Slightly above normal temperatures are expected through tomorrow, with afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. A dry weather system will traverse the Intermountain West this weekend leading to widespread breezy to windy conditions Saturday evening and Sunday, as well as cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will persist through next week, and temperatures are expected to rebound into the low 90s by early next week.

DISCUSSION
Dry, warm weather continues across the region today as quasi-zonal flow persists across the southwestern CONUS. Afternoon visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies persisting across the CWA as dry southwesterly flow aloft continues. Through tomorrow, 500 mb heights will remain consistent around 572-575 dm for our area and thus high temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today's in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. Light winds today will give way to increasingly stronger winds starting tomorrow in response to an approaching weather system that will impact the region this weekend.

The aforementioned weather system is currently seen on satellite WV imagery off the Pacific Northwest coast. Guidance show this closed low diving southward along the West Coast through the start of the weekend before progressing inland across the Great Basin Sunday.
Though the greatest negative height anomalies will remain north of our area, decreasing heights and increasing gradients will promote strong winds and cooler temperatures as we head through the weekend.
Strong winds will pick up across southeast California starting tomorrow afternoon/evening, particularly across Imperial County and Joshua Tree National Park where gusts are likely (>80%) to exceed 40 mph at times. Wind Advisories are in effect for these areas and the Wind Advisory for much of Imperial County is now in effect through Sunday evening. Sunday, strong winds will spread across Arizona as the closed low moves inland across the Great Basin while the associated dry cold front moves through the region. Wind gusts are likely (>70%) to climb upwards of 30-40 mph across much of the forecast area, while some areas may see gusts in excess of 40 mph at times, particularly areas across Imperial County and southern Gila County. Additional Wind Advisories may be needed for some areas as we get closer. The strong winds this weekend may lead to the development of dust channels across dust prone areas, which could reduce visibilities and make travel hazardous.

Outside of the strong winds, temperatures will fall below normal Sunday, especially across southeast California and southwest Arizona where well below normal highs are only forecast to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with the passage of the cold front. Across south-central Arizona, temperatures won't see as significant of a drop with lower desert highs Sunday in the mid to upper 80s.

The closed low will eject to the northeast for the start of the new workweek with lighter winds prevailing across the region. Global ensembles then favor longwave troughing persisting across the western CONUS through much of next week. Temperatures will gradually warm back up near to slightly above normal with daily afternoon highs across lower elevation areas climbing into the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION
Updated at 0556Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

W to SW winds will continue for another few hours, then easterly winds should develop by 09-10Z. Very similar conditions are forecast for Saturday, as seen on Friday, with southerly variability midday/early-afternoon, then late afternoon westerly gusts to around 20 kts. FEW to SCT high clouds will pass over the area at times.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds will generally be southerly through the period at BLH aob 10 kts, while westerly winds at IPL winds will shift back SE around sunrise Saturday. Southerly winds at KBLH will increase up to 15-20 kts in the afternoon with peak gusts up to 25-30 kts.
Winds will be stronger at KIPL in the late-afternoon and evening with westerly winds up to 20-25 kts and peak gusts in excess of 30 kts. Skies will remain mostly clear through mid-afternoon before SCT to BKN high clouds pass over the area.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and dry weather will persist into this weekend, with light and diurnal winds and typical afternoon breeziness today. Afternoon highs will remain slightly above normal through tomorrow in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. Gusty winds will begin to increase across the region in response to an approaching weather system starting Saturday afternoon/evening, particularly across parts of southeast California where gusts are expected to exceed 40 mph at times. Strong winds increase across Arizona heading into Sunday afternoon with gusts across south-central and southwest Arizona climbing upwards of 30-40 mph and some gusts potentially exceeding 40 mph, particularly across southern Gila County. The strong winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions this weekend. Min RHs through the weekend will be around 10-20%, while overnight Max RHs will be around 30-60% for most areas.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ560.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ563>567.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562.

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