Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 4:07 AM   Moonset 4:54 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 050739 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 339 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024


Morning Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

The mid levels will remain active for the remainder of the weekend into Monday. High pressure will continue at the surface.

500mb trough is located along the SE coast of the US. A weak shortwave is moving through portions of northern GA currently, helping to fire some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
This convection may linger until sunrise as it travels east across areas mainly north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Morning convection could end up delaying any isold/scat convection this afternoon. Any convection that forms this afternoon will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Models are progging another shortwave to move through overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Thickness values indicate this could be an MCS type system that moves across northern portions of the state early Monday. Since the MCS has displayed some run to run consistency the last couple of days, feel comfortable with going likely pops up north as this system moves through. The timing of the MCS may need to be adjusted on later forecasts.

Areas of dense fog have developed across eastern portions of the CWA this morning. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through mid morning.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Shortwave ridging aloft will build across the region at the onset of the forecast period beginning Tuesday, leading to a drier and hotter midweek time frame. PoPs won't be shut off entirely but instead relegated mainly to far north Georgia Tuesday and Wednesday in the form of isolated to widely scattered convection. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week with highs ranging mainly from the upper 80s to low 90s, some 8-12 degrees above normal, though record highs are unlikely to be threatened.

The ridge will flatten by Wednesday night into Thursday while at the surface a cold front will make subtle southward progress toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As convection initiates near the front on Wednesday, model guidance continues to indicate the potential for convective complex(es) to propagate east-southeastward Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There is thus the potential for at least peripheral to perhaps more direct MCS impacts to parts of north Georgia during this time frame, and the possibility for severe thunderstorms would also concomitantly increase.

The cold front will make more substantial southward progress across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday with PoPs remaining elevated in advance of the front. The front then gets a shove into and across our area Thursday night into Friday, with elevated PoPs shifting southward across the area in advance of the front on Friday. The associated severe potential will need to be monitored Thursday and Friday as well as 0-6 km bulk shear of 50+ kts would support a damaging wind threat, and supportive lapse rates could also lead to a hail threat.

A much cooler and drier airmass will establish itself in the wake of the front by the weekend with below normal temperatures likely to make a return.

RW

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

IFR cigs likely overnight with some potential for LIFR. Will keep the bkn LIFR in a tempo for now. Fog is also possible, with areas of dense fog to the east of the airfield. Sct cu is expected this afternoon. Will keep the prob30 group in for sct convection this afternoon. Winds will be light/variable overnight and then light SW during the day.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
High confidence all elements.

NListemaa

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 83 64 82 63 / 30 40 60 40 Atlanta 83 66 83 65 / 30 40 50 30 Blairsville 78 61 76 60 / 30 60 60 50 Cartersville 83 63 82 62 / 30 50 60 30 Columbus 87 67 88 66 / 30 30 20 20 Gainesville 82 64 80 64 / 30 40 60 40 Macon 86 66 86 65 / 30 30 20 20 Rome 86 65 82 64 / 30 60 60 30 Peachtree City 85 65 85 64 / 30 30 40 30 Vidalia 87 68 86 67 / 30 30 30 30

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ024-025- 027-035>039-046>051-057>062-071>076-081>086-094>098-107>113.

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