Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crowell, TX
May 4, 2024 6:01 AM CDT (11:01 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 3:40 AM Moonset 3:48 PM |
Area Discussion for - Lubbock, TX
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FXUS64 KLUB 040825 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 325 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Our active first week of May continues today with more chances for severe thunderstorms, albeit not quite as potent as recent days thanks to a cold front that will slow south of our area this afternoon. This front at 2 AM was making good progress through the northern TX Panhandle and is slated to enter our northern zones around 5 AM before clearing our southernmost counties before noon.
Models have come into better agreement with the front slowing along I20 early this afternoon which would afford us a break from the most intense convection. Still, consensus is for a layer of modest elevated CAPE to linger across much of our domain with upwards of 1500 J/kg grazing our far southern tier of counties where some SBCAPE is also apparent at times.
Widespread stratus and cool temps north of the front won't be a deterrent for storms today given the available elevated ascent and instability. Combined with effective shear around 40 knots and improving ascent courtesy of a mid-level shortwave trough and upper jetlet, the stage should be primed for surface-based supercells initially near the front across the Permian Basin. With time, these storms should exhibit some splitting behavior owing to linear hodographs. Any of these left movers would be fair game to drift northeast into our southern zones with additional elevated storms likely flourishing by late afternoon and evening as upper ascent peaks ahead of the aforementioned impulse. Hail is the main threat for us in this setup, though even this threat is looking less as models have trended farther south with the front and lower with our instability.
NBM's PoPs were adjusted lower this morning during FROPA to better reflect the drier model consensus, before ramping up later this afternoon and evening. The NBM still looks too generous with precip chances after midnight in the wake of the upper impulse, so PoPs were given a military grade haircut to account for this pronounced subsidence. No changes were necessary to temps today or tonight.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
After a few lingering showers off the Caprock Sunday morning, the remainder of the day is shaping up dry under rising heights in SW flow. However, this subsidence won't extend to the surface where moist upslope winds will likely maintain low clouds for most of the day. Some clearing near the TX-NM border late in the afternoon could push highs there to nearly 80 while the remainder of the area holds in the 70s for highs.
Monday remains the most dynamic day next week as the base of a negatively-tilted trough ejects across Colorado and western KS by late morning. This early passage of the trough will kick the dryline off the Caprock by midday and perhaps east of the 100th Meridian if the global model consensus is right. Opted to keep NBM's low PoPs in our eastern zones through the afternoon as post-dryline winds have diminished considerably in recent model runs due to a northward shift and overall weakening trend of the surface low in the central plains. The upper pattern becomes less amplified by midweek as a stacked upper low sits over the northern plains. As this low phases with new energy feeding into the backside of a broad trough, the result will be a southward shift to the elongated upper trough complete with a healthy cold front for our area o/a Thursday. This front looks too moisture starved for precip, but should end our otherwise very mild stretch of highs in the 80s/90s from Monday through Wednesday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
FROPA remains on track from 11-13Z ahead of persistent MVFR ceilings and gusty N winds. TS potential is looking quite low for most of the day until after 5 PM or so and mainly at LBB where the northern fringes of TS could impact the terminal. Confidence in this scenario is too low for a mention in the TAF at this time.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 325 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Our active first week of May continues today with more chances for severe thunderstorms, albeit not quite as potent as recent days thanks to a cold front that will slow south of our area this afternoon. This front at 2 AM was making good progress through the northern TX Panhandle and is slated to enter our northern zones around 5 AM before clearing our southernmost counties before noon.
Models have come into better agreement with the front slowing along I20 early this afternoon which would afford us a break from the most intense convection. Still, consensus is for a layer of modest elevated CAPE to linger across much of our domain with upwards of 1500 J/kg grazing our far southern tier of counties where some SBCAPE is also apparent at times.
Widespread stratus and cool temps north of the front won't be a deterrent for storms today given the available elevated ascent and instability. Combined with effective shear around 40 knots and improving ascent courtesy of a mid-level shortwave trough and upper jetlet, the stage should be primed for surface-based supercells initially near the front across the Permian Basin. With time, these storms should exhibit some splitting behavior owing to linear hodographs. Any of these left movers would be fair game to drift northeast into our southern zones with additional elevated storms likely flourishing by late afternoon and evening as upper ascent peaks ahead of the aforementioned impulse. Hail is the main threat for us in this setup, though even this threat is looking less as models have trended farther south with the front and lower with our instability.
NBM's PoPs were adjusted lower this morning during FROPA to better reflect the drier model consensus, before ramping up later this afternoon and evening. The NBM still looks too generous with precip chances after midnight in the wake of the upper impulse, so PoPs were given a military grade haircut to account for this pronounced subsidence. No changes were necessary to temps today or tonight.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
After a few lingering showers off the Caprock Sunday morning, the remainder of the day is shaping up dry under rising heights in SW flow. However, this subsidence won't extend to the surface where moist upslope winds will likely maintain low clouds for most of the day. Some clearing near the TX-NM border late in the afternoon could push highs there to nearly 80 while the remainder of the area holds in the 70s for highs.
Monday remains the most dynamic day next week as the base of a negatively-tilted trough ejects across Colorado and western KS by late morning. This early passage of the trough will kick the dryline off the Caprock by midday and perhaps east of the 100th Meridian if the global model consensus is right. Opted to keep NBM's low PoPs in our eastern zones through the afternoon as post-dryline winds have diminished considerably in recent model runs due to a northward shift and overall weakening trend of the surface low in the central plains. The upper pattern becomes less amplified by midweek as a stacked upper low sits over the northern plains. As this low phases with new energy feeding into the backside of a broad trough, the result will be a southward shift to the elongated upper trough complete with a healthy cold front for our area o/a Thursday. This front looks too moisture starved for precip, but should end our otherwise very mild stretch of highs in the 80s/90s from Monday through Wednesday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024
FROPA remains on track from 11-13Z ahead of persistent MVFR ceilings and gusty N winds. TS potential is looking quite low for most of the day until after 5 PM or so and mainly at LBB where the northern fringes of TS could impact the terminal. Confidence in this scenario is too low for a mention in the TAF at this time.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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