Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crowell, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:33PM Thursday September 23, 2021 10:14 PM CDT (03:14 UTC) Moonrise 8:17PMMoonset 8:54AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crowell, TX
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location: 34.11, -100     debug


Area Discussion for - Lubbock, TX
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FXUS64 KLUB 232317 AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 617 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021

AVIATION. VFR conditions and south winds to continue through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 227 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021/

SHORT TERM . The axis of a de-amplifying mid/upper-level ridge continues to center over the CWA as a weak shortwave trough pivots over the Desert Southwest this afternoon. Cyclogenesis of a broad lee low has commenced across the Raton Mesa as per regional METAR data, which has resulted in a diffuse pressure gradient (evident on West Texas Mesonet data) across the region. Vertical mixing heights should extend into the mid-levels by peak heating, scouring out moisture with relative humidity falling into the upper teens as dry-bulbs warm to middle 80s this afternoon. Breezy conditions will continue overnight as the nocturnal low-level jet re-intensifies to 30-35 kt in response to a shortwave trough rotating over the central Great Plains, which should result in a milder night compared to the last few with temperatures falling into the lower 50s area-wide. A few areas across the northwestern South Plains may observe temperatures in the upper 40s shortly before sunrise. Friday will be a "rinse and repeat" with similar conditions as today given persistent low-level WAA, though boundary-layer mixing should be more vigorous west of the edge of the Caprock escarpment as theta-e advection becomes nearly constant with height through 700-650 mb in the afternoon.

Sincavage

LONG TERM . Southerly breezes, cool nights and warm and dry afternoons will prevail through the weekend as West Texas remains positioned beneath shortwave ridging. The only caveat is that a cold front associated with broad trough/low over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes may graze the northern/northeast zones early Saturday. Even if the front does make it into the CWA, it should quickly retreat with minimal impacts locally.

The pattern will take a more interesting turn next week as an upper low that will hang out over the Desert Southwest through the weekend ejects slowly eastward ahead of a large trough across the eastern Pacific. Initially, low level moisture will be rather meager, but should improve by Tuesday as the Gulf of Mexico begins to open back up. Even so, lift and increasing mid-upper level moisture from the approaching system may provide slim shower/storm chances on Monday, with better chances by Tuesday. There remains plenty of details to be resolved that will dictate exactly where and when the best rain chances will be, but the entire region will have a chance of seeing precipitation next week. The initial upper low is progged to open and lift northward around the middle of the week, but should quickly be replaced by additional troughing through late week. This will keep rain chances going through late week, after perhaps a relative lull between the two waves. Given the pattern, and improving deep-layer moisture, we have accepted the NBM PoPs which now show slight chance to solid chance PoPs over a good chunk of the CWA from Monday through Friday. Rather limited instability and wind shear should tend to hinder storm organization and intensity, though a rogue strong storm isn't out of the question. Locally heavy rainfall may be a bigger threat, at least once the better low-level moisture arrives. Otherwise, temperatures will trend back toward and perhaps even below average as we progress through next week.

FIRE WEATHER . No changes made to this morning's fire weather assessment. Breezy south winds will continue for the rest of the afternoon, and the Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for the northeastern Rolling Plains through 24/00Z (7 PM CDT) this evening. Minimum RH values will fall to near 15 percent due to very warm temperatures and south winds between 15-20 mph. Breezy conditions will persist overnight with RH recovering above 50 percent. Similar conditions are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon, and no fire headlines are warranted at this time.

Sincavage

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

07


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Childress, Childress Municipal Airport, TX27 mi21 minSSE 710.00 miFair70°F39°F32%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCDS

Wind History from CDS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S6S7S7S7S5S6S7S6S7S8S15
G21
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1 day agoNE5E4N3N3N4NW4N4N4N3N3N3Calm333SW4--3Calm5SE4SE4SE7SE8
2 days agoNE7NE10
G18
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NE14
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N17
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NE11
G20
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G18
NE6NE7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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