Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crowell, TX
May 20, 2024 7:03 AM CDT (12:03 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 5:11 PM Moonset 3:44 AM |
FXUS64 KLUB 201133 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 633 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Quiet weather but hot temperatures are expected today across the forecast area. Zonal mid to upper level flow today will begin to back to southwest this evening as trough over the north Rockies and Great Basin moves to the east. At the surface, a weak pressure trough will linger across the Panhandle and South Plains today with a weak pressure gradient across the forecast area as a tighter gradient and stronger surface winds will be focused to our east from North Texas into Oklahoma. This flow will result in a veered surface flow with southwest to west winds developing area wide which will in turn shift rich surface moisture in place off the Caprock early this morning eastward with dry air spreading across the area throughout the day. As for temperatures, progged 1000-500 mb thickness increases suggest warmer temperatures than yesterday, but a weaker downslope component could offset this. The exception could be off the Caprock where drier air could allow for those warmer temperatures to be realized. The bulk of guidance seems a bit too cool relative to what the setup appears to be and have thus tried to trend the MaxT grid toward the higher end of guidance while the blend looks for fine for tonight's lows.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The mid/upper-level pattern on Tuesday will feature a synoptic-scale trough encompassing the western two-thirds of the U.S., where multiple smaller-scale troughs and vorticity lobes will pivot about a gyre embedded within the waveguide as a response from an anomalous ridge in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The leading shortwave trough is forecast to eject into the north-central Great Plains on Tuesday afternoon, while the core of a 250 mb jet streak translates over the CWA A cirrus shield congruent with this jet streak should eclipse at least the southern half of the CWA on Tuesday, though this should have limited effect on boundary-layer mixing. The backing to the mid-level flow in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave trough (e.g., 700-500 mb flow near 50 kt) will result in a small warm nose/subsidence layer above 700 mb, and when combined with the slightly negative geopotential height falls, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to middle 90s from northwest-to-southeast across the CWA, respectively, on Tuesday. Mid-level flow will weaken heading into the afternoon hours as the CWA becomes far removed from the ejecting shortwave trough, and only breezy, west-southwesterly winds are expected to develop in concert with peak heating.
Broad, southwesterly flow will persist over the region heading into Wednesday as the high-level, split-flow pattern remains intact.
Elongation of the 250 mb, subtropical jet streak is forecast to evolve as the anomalous ridging over the northeastern Pacific Ocean begins to collapse; and this will shift the cirrus shield east of the CWA on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front originating from the vertically-stacking cyclones over the Corn Belt will have surged southward across the central Great Plains and is forecast to arrive in the extreme southern TX PH prior to sunrise on Wednesday. The front should reach the southern South and Rolling Plains by the late morning hours; however, presence of an increasingly barotropic airmass to the south should slow the fast, forward-speed of the front with the front forecast to stall either in the aforementioned locales or in the northern Permian Basin. The blended prognosis on the frontal position was acceptable and has been maintained with this forecast package, though additional adjustments to the front as it becomes quasi-stationary may be necessary in forthcoming cycles.
Cooler, though still warm, temperatures will follow the front with highs ranging from the lower-to-upper 80s from the extreme southern TX PH into the southern South and Rolling Plains are also forecast for Wednesday afternoon.
Advection of an elevated mixed layer (EML) from the prior day as a function of the mid-level cooling associated with the geopotential height falls will continue atop the pre- and post-frontal airmass on Wednesday. Forecast soundings indicate most-unstable parcels potentially yielding >=2,500 J/kg CAPE within a belt of strong, southwesterly, deep-layer flow; and lapse rates throughout the EML near 7.5 deg C/km. Low chances for convection will depend on the position of the quasi-stationary front, and are currently confined to the southeastern Rolling Plains. Thunderstorms that initiate along, or in the post-frontal airmass (i.e., non-surface-based), will have a mean storm motion vector to the east at nearly 40 kt and prospects for supercells remain east of the CWA at this time. The severe weather threat for the small area of PoPs on Wednesday is, therefore, low; and NBM PoPs were trimmed as thinking is leaning towards the southeastern zones being bereft of convection during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday. Meanwhile, a well-defined shortwave trough on the southern tranche of the cyclonic gyre embedded within the larger-scale troughing is forecast to dig into the northern Rocky Mountains heading into Thursday morning.
The mass response ahead of the amplifying trough to the west will result in lee cyclogenesis across eastern New Mexico, along with the quasi-stationary front transitioning into a warm front and moving northward across the CWA during the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday morning. The dryline, previously eroded from the passage of the front but still intact within the pre-frontal airmass in southwestern Texas, will also mix northward, perhaps along or east of the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment. Rapid boundary-layer moistening is forecast to occur on Thursday morning, with dewpoints potentially reaching 60 degrees along the I-27/HWY-87 corridors. Low PoPs have been maintained, with the "silent" 10-percent PoP contour drawn back to the I-27 corridor as elevated, WAA thunderstorms may be ongoing during this time as another 700 mb trough arrives ahead of the leading mid-level perturbation. Global NWP guidance is in excellent agreement with the position of the shortwave trough as it ejects into the northern Great Plains, with high confidence in the dryline mixing into the Rolling Plains on Thursday. The glancing influence of the negatively-tilting shortwave trough over the northern Great Plains amidst the return flow, hot temperatures, and strong to potentially extreme instability in the moist sector favors severe thunderstorms. The orientation of the deep-layer flow would favor splitting supercells, though it is too early for specificity on storm characteristics with chances for storms ending Thursday night. Dry, hot, and breezy weather is then forecast through the end of the period as the CWA remains within the inflection point of the subtropical ridge over Mexico and the progressive flow over the northern U.S.
Sincavage
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 633 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Quiet weather but hot temperatures are expected today across the forecast area. Zonal mid to upper level flow today will begin to back to southwest this evening as trough over the north Rockies and Great Basin moves to the east. At the surface, a weak pressure trough will linger across the Panhandle and South Plains today with a weak pressure gradient across the forecast area as a tighter gradient and stronger surface winds will be focused to our east from North Texas into Oklahoma. This flow will result in a veered surface flow with southwest to west winds developing area wide which will in turn shift rich surface moisture in place off the Caprock early this morning eastward with dry air spreading across the area throughout the day. As for temperatures, progged 1000-500 mb thickness increases suggest warmer temperatures than yesterday, but a weaker downslope component could offset this. The exception could be off the Caprock where drier air could allow for those warmer temperatures to be realized. The bulk of guidance seems a bit too cool relative to what the setup appears to be and have thus tried to trend the MaxT grid toward the higher end of guidance while the blend looks for fine for tonight's lows.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The mid/upper-level pattern on Tuesday will feature a synoptic-scale trough encompassing the western two-thirds of the U.S., where multiple smaller-scale troughs and vorticity lobes will pivot about a gyre embedded within the waveguide as a response from an anomalous ridge in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The leading shortwave trough is forecast to eject into the north-central Great Plains on Tuesday afternoon, while the core of a 250 mb jet streak translates over the CWA A cirrus shield congruent with this jet streak should eclipse at least the southern half of the CWA on Tuesday, though this should have limited effect on boundary-layer mixing. The backing to the mid-level flow in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave trough (e.g., 700-500 mb flow near 50 kt) will result in a small warm nose/subsidence layer above 700 mb, and when combined with the slightly negative geopotential height falls, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to middle 90s from northwest-to-southeast across the CWA, respectively, on Tuesday. Mid-level flow will weaken heading into the afternoon hours as the CWA becomes far removed from the ejecting shortwave trough, and only breezy, west-southwesterly winds are expected to develop in concert with peak heating.
Broad, southwesterly flow will persist over the region heading into Wednesday as the high-level, split-flow pattern remains intact.
Elongation of the 250 mb, subtropical jet streak is forecast to evolve as the anomalous ridging over the northeastern Pacific Ocean begins to collapse; and this will shift the cirrus shield east of the CWA on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front originating from the vertically-stacking cyclones over the Corn Belt will have surged southward across the central Great Plains and is forecast to arrive in the extreme southern TX PH prior to sunrise on Wednesday. The front should reach the southern South and Rolling Plains by the late morning hours; however, presence of an increasingly barotropic airmass to the south should slow the fast, forward-speed of the front with the front forecast to stall either in the aforementioned locales or in the northern Permian Basin. The blended prognosis on the frontal position was acceptable and has been maintained with this forecast package, though additional adjustments to the front as it becomes quasi-stationary may be necessary in forthcoming cycles.
Cooler, though still warm, temperatures will follow the front with highs ranging from the lower-to-upper 80s from the extreme southern TX PH into the southern South and Rolling Plains are also forecast for Wednesday afternoon.
Advection of an elevated mixed layer (EML) from the prior day as a function of the mid-level cooling associated with the geopotential height falls will continue atop the pre- and post-frontal airmass on Wednesday. Forecast soundings indicate most-unstable parcels potentially yielding >=2,500 J/kg CAPE within a belt of strong, southwesterly, deep-layer flow; and lapse rates throughout the EML near 7.5 deg C/km. Low chances for convection will depend on the position of the quasi-stationary front, and are currently confined to the southeastern Rolling Plains. Thunderstorms that initiate along, or in the post-frontal airmass (i.e., non-surface-based), will have a mean storm motion vector to the east at nearly 40 kt and prospects for supercells remain east of the CWA at this time. The severe weather threat for the small area of PoPs on Wednesday is, therefore, low; and NBM PoPs were trimmed as thinking is leaning towards the southeastern zones being bereft of convection during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday. Meanwhile, a well-defined shortwave trough on the southern tranche of the cyclonic gyre embedded within the larger-scale troughing is forecast to dig into the northern Rocky Mountains heading into Thursday morning.
The mass response ahead of the amplifying trough to the west will result in lee cyclogenesis across eastern New Mexico, along with the quasi-stationary front transitioning into a warm front and moving northward across the CWA during the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday morning. The dryline, previously eroded from the passage of the front but still intact within the pre-frontal airmass in southwestern Texas, will also mix northward, perhaps along or east of the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment. Rapid boundary-layer moistening is forecast to occur on Thursday morning, with dewpoints potentially reaching 60 degrees along the I-27/HWY-87 corridors. Low PoPs have been maintained, with the "silent" 10-percent PoP contour drawn back to the I-27 corridor as elevated, WAA thunderstorms may be ongoing during this time as another 700 mb trough arrives ahead of the leading mid-level perturbation. Global NWP guidance is in excellent agreement with the position of the shortwave trough as it ejects into the northern Great Plains, with high confidence in the dryline mixing into the Rolling Plains on Thursday. The glancing influence of the negatively-tilting shortwave trough over the northern Great Plains amidst the return flow, hot temperatures, and strong to potentially extreme instability in the moist sector favors severe thunderstorms. The orientation of the deep-layer flow would favor splitting supercells, though it is too early for specificity on storm characteristics with chances for storms ending Thursday night. Dry, hot, and breezy weather is then forecast through the end of the period as the CWA remains within the inflection point of the subtropical ridge over Mexico and the progressive flow over the northern U.S.
Sincavage
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Frederick, OK,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE