Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:53 AM   Moonset 4:40 PM

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FXUS62 KCAE 051101 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 701 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will continue through early next week with showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Dry conditions should prevail for midweek, with a return of showers and storms possible again by Friday.
Expect well above normal temperatures each day.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Convection will move out of the forecast area later this morning as the associated upper level shortwave shifts east.
With limited instability we expect mostly showers with just isolated thunderstorms. The weak instability and weak shear will preclude severe weather. Rain rates should not be favorable for flooding except in urban and flood prone areas.

Deep moisture will remain over the forecast area with PWAT values around 1.5". During the late morning and mid- day we should see a reprieve in convective activity with NVA over the region. However, a weaker shortwave is expected to move over the forecast area during the afternoon. This should support scattered shower and thunderstorms. Coverage should be lower than the previous day given the weaker upper support. There may be some enhanced coverage in the Pee Dee and closer to I-95 where a sea breeze boundary could provide additional convergence. The threat of severe weather is limited today given weak shear, weak lapse rates, and weak DCAPE values.
Temperatures are expected to be near average once again during the day, but relatively warm overnight. Convection will diminish during the evening hours given the lack of continued support.
Lingering low level moisture tonight could once again lead to low stratus and patchy fog.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area on Monday as another shortwave moves through.
Some isolated activity will be possible early in the day, but stronger activity should occur during the afternoon. Severe threat remains rather low, but periods of heavy rainfall and some gusty winds will still be possible. Rain coverage will diminish somewhat overnight Monday with the loss of heating and due to the shortwave pushing east. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s through the day, then drop to the mid 60s Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Respite from the rain may be brief on Tuesday as weak ridging aloft quickly moves east ahead of the next stronger shortwave.
Activity may be more across the east where the sea-breeze could enhance convergence. This shortwave moves through Tuesday night, then a slightly longer period of dry conditions should occur from Wednesday into Thursday morning as another weak ridge spreads across the area. Thursday afternoon into Friday could become active again ahead of both a series of upper shortwaves moving through, and a surface cold front pushing southeastward towards the region. Better moisture should be across the area, along with stronger instability and increased shear. Can not rule out the potential for stronger storm development Thursday afternoon/evening. Additional activity possible on Friday, but less instability to work with. Cold front moves through by Saturday, and this should lead to a return of dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will generally remain well above normal through mid-week with highs in the lower 90s.
Slightly cooler Thursday and Friday with increase in clouds, then a more significant cooldown by the weekend behind the cold front, with highs mainly in the 70s.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Periods of restrictions likely for much of the TAF period.
Convective activity should be lower today than the previous day.

Early this morning: Lingering showers will continue to cause periodic visibility restrictions at CAE, CUB, and OGB for the next few hours. As the showers shift east, ceilings should lower across the region. This will keep MVFR/IFR restrictions in place through mid-morning. Light winds will generally be out of the south but may be variable at times today.

Ceilings restrictions are expected to lift by 18Z. Convective activity today should be more scattered than the previous day, so confidence in restrictions from rainfall is lower. Any convection will diminish this evening, but with low level moisture remaining high there will likely be another round of low stratus and patchy fog tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Fog and stratus likely again early Monday. Widespread fog/stratus restrictions become less likely on Tuesday with drier air moving in through mid-week. Afternoon convection possible each day in the extended.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Sun -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:53 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:06 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:23 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Sun -- 04:03 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:36 AM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:06 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Columbia, SC,