Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 4:53 PM   Moonset 3:28 AM

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FXUS62 KCAE 200646 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 246 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming temperatures. A frontal boundary will approach the region Thursday and is expected to stall just north of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Skies are clear across the forecast area tonight though there are signs of patchy fog developing in a few locations. Guidance suggests that areas of low clouds or patchy fog will develop towards daybreak as trends will need to be monitored. Lows remain on track to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Any low clouds should lift and become a scattered cumulus deck this afternoon but the region stays dry with stable conditions in place courtesy of high pressure to our north. Northeasterly flow results in near to slightly below normal temperatures today with forecast highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday through Wednesday night will be dominated by surface high pressure and upper level ridging. This will keep dry air in the mid and upper levels over the region while at the surface weak moisture return will begin Wednesday. Pwat values will be around 0.8 inches Tuesday and increase to around 1.0 inches Wednesday. With a subsidence inversion and the dry air aloft continue to expect some vertically limited diurnal cumulus each day with no showers or thunderstorms. Cumulus which develop will dissipate with sunset providing partly cloudy days and mostly clear nights with winds generally around 5 mph each day. With the upper level ridging and increasing heights temperatures will be rising each day with highs Tuesday afternoon in the mid 80s and into the upper 80s Wednesday. Radiational cooling conditions will be excellent Tuesday night allowing lows to drop into the upper 50s to around 60 then increasing clouds will limit cooling Wednesday night yielding lows in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Models have generally remained on track with minor changes this run which keeps the GFS the more dynamic solution through the long term with the ECMWF taking a more zonal approach. A cold front will be moving toward the region Thursday then stall just north of the area Thursday night and Friday. Southerly flow Thursday and Friday will keep moisture advecting into the area with pwats Thursday reaching 1.25 inches and 1.5 inches Friday.
Although moisture will be on the rise with the front struggling to reach the area a strong trigger mechanism for convection will be lacking. With the upper level trough flattening in response to a short wave passing north of the region expect the potential for other short waves to possibly generate some convection or even the sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours.
Overall the highest potential for convection Thursday and Friday remains over the northern Midlands and Pee Dee closer to the frontal boundary. For Saturday and Sunday an upper level short wave will be crossing the region Saturday with the upper level pattern returning to more zonal on Sunday. With moisture remaining above seasonal levels expect chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. High temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly above normal.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Watching for Early Morning Fog Development. Otherwise, VFR Conditions Likely through the Period....

Skies have cleared out across the terminals tonight. This clearing has promoted the development of fog at AGS with highly variable visibilities being reported during the last hour. Trends will need to be monitored to see if the fog is confined to the river or could impact other terminals. Guidance suggests that areas of low clouds will develop towards daybreak but no restrictions are expected from these clouds at this time. Any low clouds should lift and become a scattered cumulus deck in the afternoon but the region stays dry with stable conditions in place. VFR conditions will persist into Monday night.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant flight restrictions are currently anticipated through Wednesday. Low probability of restrictions during the late week period from afternoon and evening convection.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Mon -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:01 AM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:38 PM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Mon -- 04:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:25 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:44 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Columbia, SC,