Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM   Moonset 4:46 PM

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FXUS62 KGSP 060201 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1001 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
The weather pattern will have a summerlike look to it through Wednesday, keeping scattered thunderstorm chances around each afternoon. A strong cold front will approach out of the west on Thursday before tracking across the western Carolinas on Friday, leading to better coverage of thunderstorms towards the end of the workweek. Highs will remain above normal through the workweek but will climb well above normal Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 958 PM EDT Sunday: Still a few straggling convective cells west of I-26, but otherwise conditions have gotten quieter as instability wanes across the area. A shortwave and occluding cyclone, with associated remnant warm conveyor belt/moisture plume, are forecast to move in from the west toward daybreak.
The guidance has slowed the progression of this feature, limiting better shower chances to the mountains. Show these trends in the hourly PoP forecast. Lows will be around 10 degrees above normal.

Guidance shows the short wave/frontal feature crossing the area on Monday with an increase in PoP through the day. Have continued this trend in the forecast as well. The increase in shear forecast seems likely given the stronger winds moving in with the feature, but the instability increase on some models is more uncertain. This is due to the development of morning cloud cover limiting heating, and better overall precip chances. Therefore, while there will be scattered thunderstorms, the chance of severe storms looks to be limited unless better instability actually develops. Highs will be a few degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1220 PM EDT Sunday: Diurnally enhanced deep convection will have the potential to be maintained well into Monday night as subtle s/wv energy ripples eastward atop the region. Otherwise a mild night is expected with Tuesday morning minimums around 10 deg F above the early May climo. Lower level warming expected on Tuesday will boost lower elevation maximums into the middle 80s. As sfc dwpts creep upward in the lower 60s, weak to moderate instability is fcst.
Thunderstorms have the potential to become numerous in the mountains and perhaps gusty, within the upper diffluent flow along the backside of the eastern seaboard subtle ridge axis. Further warming is slated for Wednesday with Piedmont upper 80s, again, around 10 deg F above normal. The pattern will continue to progress toward a more dynamic look featuring increasingly deep SW flow. Within the increasingly sheared environment, tstms will have the potential to produced locally damaging wind gusts.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 110 PM EDT Sunday: An eastward progressing cold front is progged to be moving toward the Tenn Valley to start off the period before sagging into the cwfa on Thursday. Along and east of this boundary, sensible wx will feature numerous showers and strong tstms within the unstable and moderately sheared environment. Thanks to clouds and showers we will be stepping away from the midweek heat although pretty solid lower 80s are expected acrs lower elevations.
As the frontal zone gets hung up as it becomes parallel to upper flow on Friday, another piece of energy will rotate through the mean trough, extending shower chances at least one more day. A considerably drier post frontal airmass should settle atop the SE CONUS on Saturday.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection is still underway across the NC Escarpment zones, but appears unlikely to affect any terminals except KHKY this evening based on the latest round of short-range model guidance. Rather, it appears this activity will fizzle as it moves east, giving way to less-active conditions overnight.
Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs are expected again tonight, and IFR vis is expected in the mountains as well; really anywhere that received appreciable rainfall this afternoon can expect at least patchy fog during the predawn hours. It will take a long time for ceilings to lift after daybreak. Another round of convection is likely tomorrow, starting late morning over the SC Upstate and NC mountains, and reaching KCLT by mid afternoon. Retained PROB30s from the 18z TAF issuance, with tweaked timing. Winds generally out of the SSW through the period, but may be variable at times overnight.

Outlook: Enhanced moisture will combine with a weak/stalled front through the middle of the week, resulting in a period of active/mainly diurnal convective weather each day. There will also be the potential for restrictions associated with widespread fog and/or low clouds each morning. A cold front moves in for later in the work week with continued chances of diurnal convection.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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