Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 3:35 AM   Moonset 3:41 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 041751 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 151 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

New 18Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Much like yesterday, high pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels remain active today, but ridging should build by the end of the weekend.

500mb analysis shows ridging just offshore the SE coast. A shortwave trough is moving through central AL early this morning. This mid level system could provide just enough lift for some light shra/patchy light rain early this morning and continue to provide some lift for scattered afternoon convection. The shortwave trough will move very slowly eastward, and could remain right along the coast through early Sunday. Ridging should briefly build across the CWA late Sunday.

At the surface, weak high pressure will persist. A weak frontal boundary will move across the Mid Mississippi River Valley and Ohio Valley on Sunday. The front will sag southward late Sunday, with the boundary laying down from east to west. The boundary should remain north of the CWA Not much denoted in the surface pattern to focus convection, the main forcing mechanisms should be in the mid levels.

The high res models are showing some organization to convection this afternoon across the eastern portion of the CWA This is likely associated with the trough aloft. Have kept pops mostly isold/sct across much of the CWA, but have kept the likely pops in the east.

A few storms could become strong this afternoon with lightning and gusty winds being the primary hazards. BL winds remain very light (weak steering currents) and PWATs are 1.5"+, so locally heavy rainfall is possible where thunderstorms form. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

PoPs will remain elevated on Monday as a shortwave trough progresses through quasi-zonal midlevel flow across the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected given the presence of a moist airmass characterized by PWATs in the 1.5-1.7" range. While no notable severe threat is expected, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall would be expected in any stronger thunderstorm.

Drier but hotter conditions will make a return by Tuesday into Wednesday as shortwave ridging builds across the area. As such, any isolated/widely scattered convection would be relegated to far north Georgia during these midweek days. TemperaturVCSH es will respond in kind with upper 80s to low 90s spreading across the area for highs, some 8-12 degrees above seasonal norms.

Flow aloft by Thursday becomes more southwesterly between the trough extending from the Great Lakes and ridging centered across the Gulf.
With the near-stationary surface front extending across the Mid- Mississippi Valley Thursday, disturbances propagating along the frontal zone will serve to increase PoPs, especially across north Georgia. Given plentiful SBCAPE and more favorable bulk shear, will have to monitor the potential for any severe risk associated with potential convective complexes that could affect the area by Thursday and again into Friday as the surface front pushes into the area.

RW

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Lingering BKN VFR cloud deck eroding to give way to chcs for isold TSRA at northern TAF sites from 18-23Z. IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys likely areawide from 09-15Z, then gradual improvement to MVFR to low-VFR into the aftn. Winds will once again be out of the SW/SSW at 5-8kts thru 00Z, switching to light out of the SE (and VRB at times) overnight.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium confidence all elements.

96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 63 83 64 82 / 50 30 40 70 Atlanta 65 82 65 82 / 30 30 50 60 Blairsville 60 77 60 76 / 30 50 50 80 Cartersville 63 83 63 83 / 30 30 40 70 Columbus 66 87 66 87 / 20 40 30 40 Gainesville 64 81 64 80 / 30 40 50 80 Macon 65 86 65 85 / 30 50 40 60 Rome 63 84 64 84 / 30 30 50 70 Peachtree City 64 84 64 84 / 30 40 40 60 Vidalia 66 87 67 86 / 50 50 40 70

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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