Monday, October18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fillmore, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:18PM Monday October 18, 2021 12:11 PM PDT (19:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:43PMMoonset 5:08AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 910 Am Pdt Mon Oct 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm pdt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 910 Am Pdt Mon Oct 18 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z, or 9 am pdt, a weak cold front near point conception will exit the coastal waters this afternoon with increasing nw winds behind the front through late tonight.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fillmore, CA
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location: 34.4, -119     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 181812 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1112 AM PDT Mon Oct 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. 18/906 AM.

A cold front moving through the area is bringing light rain and drizzle to the area this morning. Sunny and warmer conditions are slated for Tuesday. Fair weather is forecast for Wednesday with more warming on tap for Thursday. Unsettled cloudier and cooler weather is slated for the end of the week and the weekend.

SHORT TERM (TDY-WED). 18/918 AM.

***UPDATE***

The cold front is almost through the area and light showers are still falling from eastern Ventura County through Los Angeles County. Maximum precipitation amounts seem to be around 0.1" in foothill locations, with most stations only having recoded a few hundredths. It will be cool today in the post frontal air mass. No impactful changes expected from the previous short term forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Weak and dying cold front is over SLO county right now and is only producing a few showers. PVA out ahead of the front is quickly lifting a broad deck of strata cu clouds across LA and VTA counties. The rapid lift and deepening of this cloud layer should squeeze out some drizzle or even light rain across most of the area. Rainfall totals, however, will not be impressive and will likely mostly come in the trace to 5 hundredths range. The only exception could be the foothills and coastal slopes where the upslope flow will aid in rainfall production and those areas could see up to a quarter inch of rainfall. Skies will quickly clear from the NW to the SW in the afternoon as NVA fill in behind the front. The only chc of rain will be over the eastern San Gabriel mtns and the foothills of the San Gabriel Vly. Today will be the coldest day of the next 7 with 4 to 8 degrees of cooling on tap for the coasts and 10 to 20 degrees for areas further inland. Max temps will not escape the 60s across the coasts and vlys. Max temps across the coasts will be 8 to 12 degrees blo normal while the vlys and inland areas will be 10 to 20 degrees blo normal.

Tuesday will be a sunny day. Today's cold front will wipe out the marine inversion which will keep the area stratus free. A weak ridge will move in from the west and hgts will build to 576 dam. Max temps will respond to the higher hgts and ample sunshine by rising 3 to 6 degrees across the csts and vlys (which actually may not be enough as there could be some offshore flow as well) and 8 to 12 degrees across the mtns and interior.

A trof will sweep through the northern half of the state on Tuesday night and into Wednesday. It will only bring a slight chc of rain to SLO county and no where else. The lift ahead of the trof will bring marine layer stratus back to the most of the coastal areas. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will follow the morning low clouds as the trof ushers in a slug of mid level moisture. Hgts actually rise a little bit but the clouds should counteract the warming and max temps will be similar to Tuesday's readings.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN). 18/136 AM.

Both the GFS and EC agree that a small ridge will move through the state on Wednesday night. On Thursday the state will still be under the western portion of the ridge. Hgts will be near 583 dam. There will be near neutral flow in the E/W direction and weak offshore flow from the north. It will likely be a mostly cloudy day (perhaps partly cloudy over LA county) as a grip of mid and high level clouds ride up the backside of the ridge. The hgt rises and lack of onshore flow will more than compensate for the reduced sunshine and max temps will rise 3 to 6 degrees across the area making this the warmest day of the next 7 for most of the forecast area. This warming will bring most max temps to within a degree or two of normal.

Both the deterministic GFS and EC along with their respective ensembles show a series of trofs pushing through the state Friday through next Monday. There is not much consensus on exactly when the trof axes/fronts move through. Thus the exact timing of rain is still a bit of a question mark. The current mdl runs keep the bulk of the dynamics and mositure to north of the area on Friday and Saturday. The systems on Sun and Mon seem a little stronger and further south and right now this seems the best 48 hour window for rain. Almost all of the ensembles do not show significant rainfall occuring friday through Sunday but quite a few do favor better rainfall on Monday/Monday night. Monday/Monday Night is a day 8 forecast so would not run out and buy umbrella stock just yet. Other than the rain chc it looks like it will be a mostly cloudy period with max temps several degrees blo normal.

AVIATION. 18/1811Z.

At 1659Z at KLAX, there was a moist layer of 8000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 10000 feet at a temperature of 5 C.

Moderate confidence in all TAFs. Cigs may bounce around between 015 and 035. Good confidence in a gradual switch to VFR conds between 20-22z.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may bounce around between 015 and 035. Good confidence in a switch to VFR conds 18-20Z. Good confidence there will not be an east wind component greater than 5 kt.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may bounce around between 015 and 035. Good confidence in a switch to VFR conds 18-21z.

MARINE. 18/930 AM.

No changes to the marine forecast in the morning update.

NW winds are currently strengthening across the northern outer waters this morning as a cold front traverses through the waters. As the front moves southward today, winds will strengthen further and expand to the outer waters south of Point Conception. High confidence that winds will strengthen to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level across the waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, but lower confidence in timing. Have issued an SCA starting at 9am, but there is a chance that winds will strengthen a few hours earlier (or later). Moderate to high confidence in SCA level winds expanding into the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel by late this afternoon, and an SCA has been issued for this portion starting at 3pm. SCA level winds will likely last through late tonight, then quickly diminish. Winds and seas are then expected to be below SCA levels for all coastal waters Tuesday through Thursday. A large NW swell is expected to enter the waters on Friday with moderate confidence in hazardous seas greater than 10 feet across the outer waters through the weekend.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).

A storm system could affect the region next weekend.



PUBLIC . Rorke AVIATION . Sweet/Stewart MARINE . Sweet/Stewart SYNOPSIS . jld

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46268 34 mi71 min 61°F 60°F3 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 37 mi95 min NW 7G9.9 63°F 1014.6 hPa
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 38 mi71 min WSW 11G13 60°F 61°F1015.4 hPa (+0.8)
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 42 mi45 min 63°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 44 mi41 min W 9.7G14 59°F 62°F1015.1 hPa52°F
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 46 mi51 min W 16G19 59°F 60°F1015.4 hPa49°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA14 mi16 minW 810.00 miA Few Clouds68°F48°F49%1015 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA17 mi20 minWSW 1110.00 miFair64°F49°F58%1014.4 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA20 mi19 minW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds65°F47°F52%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCMA

Wind History from CMA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW12SW12SW10SW8SW6S3SE3NE3E30SW3000E5000E3NE30SW5SW6SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:47 AM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:08 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:05 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:59 AM PDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:12 PM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM PDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:44 AM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:08 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:00 AM PDT     5.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:09 PM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:05 PM PDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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