Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mission Canyon, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:25PM Friday October 15, 2021 7:14 PM PDT (02:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 2:04AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 214 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..Eastern portion, E winds 20 to 25 kt becoming S 5 to 10 kt by the afternoon. Western portion, se winds 5 to 10 kt becoming nw by the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 14 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 214 Pm Pdt Fri Oct 15 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1033 mb surface high was located over utah, with a ridge extending off the ca coast to a 1026 mb high 600 nm nw of point conception. A weak thermal trough of low pressure was over the southern california bight. This utah high will stay in place through Sat then weaken on Sun. Gusty ne winds will affect mainly the nearshore waters from ventura to malibu later tonight and Sat morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mission Canyon, CA
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location: 34.45, -119.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 160011 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 511 PM PDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. 15/1224 PM.

Santa Ana winds will bring widespread warming with dry air across southwest California through Saturday. By Sunday, winds will switch back to onshore with cooler temperatures and higher humidities. A deepening marine layer is expected early next week for more seasonal temperatures.

SHORT TERM (TDY-MON). 15/1249 PM.

Santa Ana winds brought red flag warning conditions to most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties today. Widespread humidities less than 15 percent and gusty east to northeast winds of 25-45 mph have been common. A few foothills wind sensors peaked between 50-55 mph before noon. Temperatures warmed well into the 80s in the windier corridors with a few 90+ readings from Lake Casitas to Camarillo in Ventura Co. and near 90 degrees around the Long Beach area. For tonight, many breezier foothills in eastern Ventura County and western LA County may remain well above 70 degrees for minimum temperatures along with 10 percent humidity, a significant fire weather risk at nighttime.

East to northeast winds will likely increase late tonight for the typical Santa Ana corridors, but also downslope of the Santa Lucia Mountains in western San Luis Obispo County. Wind advisories will remain in effect for most areas through midday on Saturday. Computer model data continues to show upper level wind support a little stronger in the morning compared to today, along with surface pressure gradients nearly the same at -5mb for LAX-DAG. Temperatures and humidities will have a head start for reaching their peak/trough, respectively on Saturday. Fire starts are more concerning due to the duration of very low humidities and winds tomorrow. Many temperatures will be at least as warm as today with highs 85-95 degrees for valleys and coasts in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.

Winds will reverse to onshore at coastal areas late Saturday afternoon and evening, then continue to advance more humid air into the valleys Saturday night. The mountains and deserts will continue to see poor overnight recoveries and rather dry conditions extending into Sunday afternoon. For the coast side of the mountains, Sunday will be a much cooler day with afternoon seabreezes. By Sunday night, an upper trough swings across northern CA with a cold front sliding through the central coast. The ability of this front to hold together and bring anything more than a few light sprinkles of rain to the SLO County coast early Monday morning is highly unlikely. The main effect will be a stronger onshore push of low clouds and patchy drizzle in the morning with more seasonal temperatures.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI). 15/122 PM.

Model deterministic runs and ensembles are coming into better alignment for a ridge to pop back up across CA beginning Tuesday with heights pushing 585dm by Thursday. There are at least weak offshore pressure gradients showing up (-2.7mb on ECM) on Thursday and anything stronger could contribute significantly to downslope heating and drying. That leads to uncertainty in the temperature forecasts with model data ranging from 75 to 90 degrees potentially for some coastal zones. For the most part, expect a shrinking marine layer for beach areas with temperatures climbing back above normal during the week and humidities dropping again. A peak in temperatures on Thursday looks reasonable.

The greatest uncertainty in the forecast comes toward the end of next week and the following weekend. The ridge will breakdown and slide east beginning Friday with a weakening cold front approaching the area late Saturday (Oct 23). Ensemble runs have indicated many members with precipitation on Sunday into Monday, however, newer runs have shown much drier scenarios due to the location of a large trough over the eastern Pacific. Trends in the ensembles are for a weaker part of the trough to pass through southwest CA, kind of a glancing blow. Then the trough digs well out over the central Pacific which will likely force the jet stream well to our north (get used to this sentence as La Nina will help repeat this pattern all winter). The bottom-line is that we might get a little precipitation late next weekend, but it doesn't look like it will amount to much and will have minimal impacts on our current fire season.

AVIATION. 16/0010Z.

At 2320Z at KLAX, the marine layer was at 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 800 feet deep with a temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs with moderate confidence in wind speed and timing for NE winds for LA/Ventura County TAF sites. There is a chance of LLWS and moderate turbulence for LA/Ventura County TAF sites through 21Z, especially around higher terrain. There is a 20% chance of restricted visibility at KSBA due to smoke from the Alisal fire.

KLAX . High confidence in CAVU TAF. Any east wind component should be less than 7 knots.

KBUR . High confidence in CAVU TAF. There is a chance of LLWS and moderate turbulence through 21Z.

MARINE. 15/1249 PM.

From Ventura to Santa Monica and out to the Channel Islands, northeast Santa Ana winds close to shore will decrease this afternoon and even turn onshore into this evening. Northeast winds will increase over this area later tonight into Saturday morning with Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) in effect during that period. The strongest winds will likely be closest to shore. While there is a chance that these winds will affect Santa Catalina Island including Avalon Harbor, moderate confidence that any winds that form there will be less than 15 knots.

Otherwise, not expecting SCA conditions across the coastal waters through Sunday night. For Monday and Monday night, northwest winds will strengthen across the waters with moderate confidence in SCA level winds returning to the outer waters off the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, and possibly to the east Santa Barbara Channel. Winds and seas are then expected to be below SCA levels for all coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Wind Advisory in effect until noon PDT Saturday for zones 40-41-44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Saturday for zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).

Gusty northerly winds may occur across southern Santa Barbara County and the Interstate 5 Corridor on Sunday night and Monday.



PUBLIC . EB AVIATION . Lund/Gomberg MARINE . Sirard SYNOPSIS . EB

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 3 mi98 min W 6G9.9 82°F 1016 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 16 mi44 min W 7.8G9.7 64°F 61°F1016.2 hPa55°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 43 mi34 min NW 5.8G7.8 63°F 59°F1016.2 hPa
46251 48 mi48 min 63°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi21 minW 810.00 miFair71°F33°F25%1015.8 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA23 mi19 minNW 410.00 miFair72°F30°F22%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW3N3000W30000000W5S54SW5W7SW7SW5W10W7W8
1 day ago00000000N300000SE5SE7SE6SW5S5S5SW8W7W6SW3
2 days agoW4N8N10N3N7E5E30000000SE4SE6S5SW8S6SE7SE9SE6SE40

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:00 AM PDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:03 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:51 AM PDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:11 PM PDT     2.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:17 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:55 PM PDT     5.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, California (2)
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:05 AM PDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:52 AM PDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:16 PM PDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:16 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:00 PM PDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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