Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 4:40 AM   Moonset 6:50 PM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 309 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Through 7 pm - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with a few gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with a few gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Sat night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sun - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 309 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the area into Thu while a sfc trof extends across the carolinas. Modest sw winds could near small craft advisory levels at times, especially Thu. A cold front accompanied with scattered convection will move through the area late Thu into Fri. Cooler and drier air will then return to start the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 072000 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 400 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure into Thursday with unseasonably warm and humid conditions expected. Mostly limited showers and storms expected through Wednesday. A cold front moves through late in the work week bringing a better chance of rain and possible strong to severe storms. High pressure will then follow bringing drier and cooler conditions for the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Tonight: Mainly isolated showers and storms ahead of another upper shortwave along the sea breeze, differential heating boundaries and/or convective outflows are expected to wind down early this evening with a dry night thereafter. Can't completely rule out a strong to severe storm if any updrafts can get strong enough given sufficient DCAPE and hail CAPE. Otherwise, an unseasonably warm night is on tap with mostly just some mid/high clouds and lows around 70 most locales.

Although there is not much tidal departure, the high astronomical tides due to the new moon could still produce minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River and thus we have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for late this evening into very early Wednesday.

Wednesday: Likely the warmest day of the year so far as mid-level ridging builds. We undercut 1000-850 mb thickness scheme temps which would suggest mid 90s given at least some cloud cover. We are currently forecast a tie of the record high in Wilmington (ILM) and a degree shy at Florence. Otherwise, the combination of such temps along with fairly high dewpoints near 70 will heat indices in the mid to upper 90s, although still shy of our 105 degree Heat Advisory criteria. But given it's the first real significant heat of the season and many have not acclimated just yet, folks should still be cautious if they will be outside for any length of time.
Otherwise, expect isolated to scattered convection to develop during the afternoon, mainly inland from the SC Pee Dee northeast to the NC Sandhills. Despite marginal deep layer shear, instability looks plenty sufficient to support a few severe storms later in the day.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ridge will be located offshore Wed evening with moving through mainly NC Wed eve. Looks like main convective activity with this shortwave will remain north and west of area, but there is a chc for a shwr or storm late day Wed into Wed night. SC will have less of a chc. After passage of this shortwave, Thurs morning should start out quiet, but cold front will be approaching the Carolinas late Thurs into Fri. The flow aloft remains rather flat Thurs aftn with only minor perturbations in the flow aloft until mid to upper trough digs down from the Great Lakes into Fri. A pretty decent cap Thurs gets eroded on Fri as deep trough approaches. Looks like best chc of stronger storms may be with shortwave Wed night, ahead of front and especially on Fri as mid to upper trough pushes cold front through. Could possibly see some hail on Fri as mid level heights drop with cool pool aloft and increasing mid level lapse rates. Both the GFS and ECMWF show shortwave riding up from the SW around deeper trough, but EC keeps it south of area on Fri while the GFS moves it through the Carolinas. Therefore, timing may be off, but overall, should see potential for a few periods of shwrs and storms Wed night through Fri time period.

Airmass will remain warm and humid until front passes on Fri. Temperatures up around 90 on Thurs will be tampered by clouds and convection on Fri with 80s for highs Fri. Temps Wed night and Thurs night will remain in the 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Once cold front and upper level trough move off the coast on Fri, plenty of dry and cooler air will move in for the weekend.
Pcp water values up to 1.8 inches in moisture pooling ahead of front will drop down to less than a half inch by Sat morning.
Dewpoint temps up near 70 in convection Wed night through Fri will drop down to less than 50 on Sat as dry high pressure builds in. High Temps in the 70s on Sat will be back near or above 80 Sun and Mon, which is about normal for this time of year. The air mass will begin to modify slightly as the high moves off the coast, but overall dry westerly flow will remain aloft. A weak backdoor cold front may drop into the area Sun night or Mon, but have not included any chc of pcp for now as models differ with timing.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Moderate to high confidence for the 18Z TAFs across SE NC and NE SC. Mainly isolated showers/storms expected this aftn, especially near the coast driven by the sea breeze. However, not enough to warrant mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, mostly dry through the rest of the period with gusty S/SW flow at times, especially during the aftn/eve near the coast due to the sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...Looking at VFR dominating Wed into early Thu with isolated convection. Threat of more widespread strong convection and periodic flight restrictions later Thu into early Fri ahead of a CFP. Clearing later Fri with VFR dominating thru Sat with high pressure prevailing.

MARINE
Through Wednesday...The local waters will remain between Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough which will keep elevated southwest winds in place. Gusts could reach or even exceed Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt) at times but confidence/coverage isn't great enough to warrant raising a headline at this time. Seas look to stay about 4 ft or less.

Wednesday night through Sunday...
Southwesterly flow typical of the warm season will remain in place Wed night through Thurs. The persistence southerly push should drive seas up and by late Thursday we may reach SCA criteria possibly for winds and seas. Seas around 3 to 4 ft will reach up to 4 to 6 ft late Thur into Fri dropping back down to 3 to 4 ft Fri night and down 3 ft or less for the weekend.

Winds will veer as cold front nears Thurs night into early Fri with a shift to N-NW later Friday. Winds may reach as high as 25 to 30 kts in gusts Wed night through Fri until front passes. NW to N winds on Sat will back to the W-SW as high pressure migrates across the Southeast, shifting offshore by the end of the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 02:23 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

New River Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:40 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:42 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:37 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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