Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Goleta, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:18PM Thursday October 21, 2021 1:58 PM PDT (20:58 UTC) Moonrise 6:08PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 915 Am Pdt Thu Oct 21 2021
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 12 seconds, building to 6 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..Western portion, W winds 20 to 25 kt. Eastern portion, W winds 20 to 25 kt becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 20 kt. Eastern portion, nw winds around 10 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Chance of rain.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain likely.
PZZ600 915 Am Pdt Thu Oct 21 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z, or 9 am pdt, a 950 mb surface low was 500 nm W of seattle with a cold front extending to the south of the low center across the eastern pacific. This front will approach the coastal waters on Friday and Saturday. Building seas are expected Friday through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Goleta, CA
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location: 34.47, -120     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 211630 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 930 AM PDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Updated Marine Section

SYNOPSIS. 21/227 AM.

Mostly quiet weather expected this week, with warming today then cooling through Saturday. Very light rain is possible for San Luis Obispo County on Friday. A approaching storm system will bring widespread moderate to heavy rain later Sunday and Monday, with minor flooding, gusty winds, and cooler conditions possible. Warming and drying are expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT). 21/911 AM.

***UPDATE***

Not much to add from earlier forecasts as things haven't changed much. A little warmer today, especially south of Pt Conception as heights peak and gradients are lightly offshore. Temps expected to be near to slightly below normal most areas.

Haven't had much marine layer stratus lately but expecting this to change by tonight with onshore trends and a decent marine inversion in place. The weak Sundowners may keep it clear across srn Santa Barbara County but low clouds expected to fill in most other coastal areas and some coastal valleys by Friday morning.

Based on the latest high res models precip tomorrow with this first little system expected to be mainly confined to Morro Bay north and likely some light post frontal upslope precip across the northern Ventura mountains and NW I5 corridor Friday night (snow levels 8000 ft or higher). Amounts mostly a tenth or less. Otherwise just cooler temps with the onshore flow.

***From Previous Discussion***

There will be a little sundowner this evening with the strongest gusts west of the airport (KSBA). The upper flow will turn cyclonic, the onshore flow will increase a little and a weak eddy will spin up. All of this should be enough to develop marine layer stratus across almost all of the coasts.

A weak front will wash out over the Central Coast on Friday morning. It will bring a slight chc of rain to the Central Coast through the day, but more likely it will lift the marine layer and create quite a bit of drizzle. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be under a tenth of an inch with the usual exception of the far NW corner of SLO county which could see quite a bit more. There will be enough clouds with and behind the front to make it a mostly cloudy (LA county's vlys and interior may start off partly cloudy since they will be the furtherest removed from the front) The clouds, falling hgts and much increased onshore flow will bring 3 to 6 degrees of cooling to the area. Gusty northwest to north winds will form behind the front late Friday afternoon and continue overnight. Gusts between 30 to 40 mph are likely over southern Santa Barbara County and northern Los Angeles County.

The north flow will pile up clouds against the north slopes of the mtns along the Kern county line. There is enough orographic lift and moisture to produce a chc of rain or very high elevation snow. the strong onshore flow and an eddy will bring low clouds to most of the coasts and vlys (save for the SBA south coast, the northern vlys of VTA county and the Santa Clarita Vly where the north flow will thwart the advance of the low clouds.

Not too much excitement slated for Saturday. Drier NW flow will diminish the north slope clouds. There will likely be enough mid and high level clouds embedded in the NW flow to make it a partly cloudy day. Hgts will continue to fall and max temps will fall a few more degrees.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will bring another N wind event to the area late Saturday afternoon through early morning Sunday. Low end advisories may be needed.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 21/320 AM.

The main focus of the next 7 days remains the late Sunday through Monday storm. The storm remains just out of range of the high resolution forecast mdls but that will change 24 hours from now.

Both mdls are trending slower with the southward progression of the storm (which is good since it will allow it to dump more rain and snow over the Sierra Nevadas). Sunday now looks to be a fairly cloudy and dry day. Strong WSW flow over Srn CA will bring a thick sheet of mid and high level clouds to the area. Moist but rather non dynamic flow will slowly sag southward and a chance of rain will overspreads SLO and western and northern SBA. Rainfall totals over SLO and SBA counties will be on the light side mostly under a quarter inch. The coastal slopes north of Morro Bay could be a major exception as this kind of flow pattern can generate prodigious amount of rainfall. Max temps will remain blo normal with most coasts and vlys coming in the 60s with a sprinkling of 70s in the LA mtns.

Sunday night a strong jet moves into the backside of the upper low which will be off of the coast of OR. The energy and cold air assoc with this jet will develop a cold front which will quickly shoot to the east. This action drastically changes the character of the storm from an Atmospheric River event to a cold frontal event. Over the course of the night prefrontal rain will move into the Central Coast and then work its way down to LA county. By dawn Monday rain will be falling over SLO and most of SBA counties but there will only be a chc of rain for areas south of Point Conception. These are the latest timing estimates and it should be noted that the timing of this system has been changing every day so there could easily be changes with future forecasts. At this time it does not look like that much rain will fall during this period with the NW SLO county possible exception.

Both the GFS and EC and most of the ensembles agree that the front will move fairly quickly across the southern half of the state on Monday. Current estimates are slower than previous ones calling for the front to move through in the afternoon. There will likely be a 1 to 2 hour burst of rain with the front and lighter rain on either side of it. Snow levels will be quite high (around 9000 ft) and snow will not factor into the hazards with this storm.

While the current forecast rain totals are a lighter than previous do not want to chase a moving target and will stick with the current estimates(1 and 3 inches for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. 0.50 to 1.50 for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.) But if the 12Z mdls continue the lower total trends the official estimates will have to be lowered some. The highest totals will be over the south and southwest facing mountains and foothills. Rain rates should generally stay in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch per hour range, with isolated rates slightly higher at the moment of frontal passage.

Max temps will be rain storm typical and will mostly be in the 60s across the coasts and vlys.

The jet moves perpendicular to the front late in the afternoon and this will move it out of the area fairly quickly and the rain will diminish and end from the NW to SE. Snow levels will fall to 7000 feet but there will not be much precip left to produce significant snowfall totals.

Tuesday will be, at worst, partly cloudy and breezy especially in the NW to N wind favored areas. There will be a little bit of warming but not much as the cold airmass will remain in place.

Sunny with 5 to 10 degrees of warming on tap for Wednesday as a ridge noses in from the SW.

AVIATION. 21/0626Z.

At 0445Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 400 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 1900 feet with a temperature of 11 C.

High Confidence in inland TAFs.

Moderate confidence in KSMX and KSBP TAFs. There is a 20 percent chc of no clouds. Otherwise timing may be off by +/- 2hours and cig hgt off by +/- 300 ft. Better confidence after 21Z.

Pretty good confidence in coastal TAFs KSBA and south with just a 20 percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-17Z at any given site.

KLAX . Pretty good confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chance of IFR cigs 11Z-17Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be under 6 kt.

KBUR . High confidence in TAF.

MARINE. 21/929 AM.

A larger than expected west swell is filling in the coastal waters this morning, and the wave height forecast was upped as a result through this evening. Low confidence on how large the swell will get in the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Monica Basin, and will have to monitor it through the day. As a result, Small Craft Advisories (SCA) were issued for the larger seas in some areas.

Expecting northwest winds to increase this afternoon and evening, but now looks to be focused over the more typical area between Point Conception and San Nicolas Island instead of a little more widespread. SCAs are now in effect for that area as a result, and canceled the SCA for the Santa Barbara Channel. Better confidence that these winds will expand more into the inner waters on Friday, including most of the Santa Barbara Channel (SCA likely) and western half of the Santa Monica Basin (SCA possible). Short period waves will build as a result, on top of a building longer period swell. High confidence that this longer period swell will go above the SCA 10 foot threshold by Friday afternoon off the Central Coast and southward and last through Saturday. Moderate confidence that the NW winds will be increasing during this period as well, but should return to the more traditional areas from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island with less impact to the inner waters. These winds will however generate a significant short period wave everywhere.

A storm system is still on track to impact the area Sunday and Monday, with a period of gusty SW winds everywhere, and a large swell impacting all areas Sunday through Wednesday, peaking Monday and Tuesday. During this peak, large breaking waves nearshore will pose dangers to boats, with breaking waves possible over the Morro Bay and Ventura Harbor entrances. Thunderstorms are not expected.

BEACHES. 21/405 AM.

Increased storm activity across the eastern Pacific Ocean is expected late this week into early next week. This will set the stage for stronger winds and larger swells in the coastal waters. The large swells will impact mainly west facing beaches beginning Friday, with a threat of High Surf conditions from the Central Coast and southward to southern L.A. County. A High Surf Advisory may be posted in the near future. High Surf could potentially begin as early as Friday, lasting through the weekend and into early next week.

While still early, the latest swell model are building a very large west-northwest swell to around 17 feet with a 17 second period. If this scenario develops as modeled, this could produce locally damaging sets at Central Coast beaches on Monday and Monday night and dangerous and life threatening surf conditions for anyone entering the water.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Gusty west to northwest winds will create driving hazards over southwest Santa Barbara County and northern Los Angeles County through Saturday. High surf and dangerous rip currents will affect area beaches Friday through Wednesday, largest Monday and Tuesday. A storm system will affect the region Sunday Night and Monday, with moderate to heavy rain, roadway flooding, possible debris flows around the Alisal burn scar, and gusty winds focused in the mountains.



PUBLIC . MW/Rorke AVIATION . Rorke MARINE . Kittell BEACHES . Hall SYNOPSIS . Smith

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 17 mi82 min SW 7G7 62°F 1020.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 18 mi48 min W 7.8G9.7 61°F 63°F1020.1 hPa58°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 28 mi38 min WNW 14G19 57°F 58°F1019.3 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 35 mi58 min N 11G11 56°F 1020.3 hPa (-0.3)
HRVC1 36 mi76 min 56°F 1021 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 41 mi62 min 59°F9 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA9 mi65 minWSW 610.00 miFair67°F53°F61%1019.6 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA10 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair73°F43°F33%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:21 AM PDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:06 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:34 AM PDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM PDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:25 PM PDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:10 AM PDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:21 AM PDT     5.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM PDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:06 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:12 PM PDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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