Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:10 AM   Moonset 3:15 PM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 849 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft, then 2 ft this afternoon. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tonight - SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 849 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Benign marine wind and sea conditions will continue thru this weekend. A series of weak fronts will approach from the west and stall inland from the coast thru early next week, bringing a little better chance for showers and Thunderstorms Sun thru Mon.

FXUS62 KILM 041038 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 638 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this weekend due to several upper level disturbances and interactions of weak surface fronts and the daily sea breeze. Dry High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week due to an approaching frontal system.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early this morning, will deal with areas of fog with patchy dense mainly across the inland Southeast NC portions of the FA.
SPS already issued to accommodate the patchy dense. High level and some mid level clouds will combine to keep fog development minimal across Northeast SC. Some of these clouds will filter across Southeast NC, likely helping to keep the fog from expanding and becoming widespread dense.

Mid-level ridge axis will slide eastward, off the Carolina Coasts today thru tonight. This will allow some further moistening of the atm with an increase in PWs to 1.6+ inches inland, ie. along and west of I-95 corridor, and up to 1.2 inches at the coast. The further eastward moving of the upper ridge will allow the 1.5+ pws to reach the coast later tonight.
We'll have the moisture, now a closer movement east of the frontal boundary. In addition, today's inland sea breeze movement will flare up convection ahead of it but the stable layer in its wake will negate pcpn development. For the most part, the coast will stay dry and the inland counties will carry the threat, with the hier POPs along and west of the I-95 corridor. Later tonight, a mid-level s/w trof will approach from the SW with an increase in POPs overspreading the entire ILM CWA, especially closer to the coast, late in the pre-dawn Sun hrs. Max temps today, actually running near or slightly above normal. Tonights lows running above normal, with a few coastal locations seeing upper 60s to near 70.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather increases on Sunday with a weak frontal boundary still stalled west of the I-95 corridor and moisture advection overspreading the area. Weak shortwave energy coinciding with afternoon heating should produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Remaining unsettled on Monday, especially along the sea breeze which will be bolstered by increasing southerly flow. An approaching shortwave Monday night into Tuesday will keep showers and storms in the forecast overnight. Highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s each day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will produce better instability. A few afternoon storms are possible, but with much less coverage than previous days. High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s will be the start of a warming trend through Thursday.

Ridging amplifies during the middle of the week. Expect above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping coastal sites above normal as well. Watching the next chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday ahead of an upper low and associated cold front.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Looking at VFR/MVFR conditions thru 13Z, due to fog and possibly bkn 025 ceiling. Otherwise, mid to upper level clouds to dominate for much of this 24 hr period. Guidance indicates possible convection across the inland terminals this aftn and early evening and will indicate with VCTS, this followed by prob30 for -shra thru the evening for again the inland terminals. Have also indicated VCSH to overspread the area during the pre-dawn Sun hrs, from SW to NE, aided by a mid- level s/w trof tracking toward and partially across the northeast SC area. Ceilings may also drop to MVFR as a result of the pcpn. Winds generally 130-170 degrees at 4 to 8 kt, around 10 kt at the coastal terminals at the height of the sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic visibility and ceiling restrictions Sun into Mon. Otherwise, looking at VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the mainstay Tue into Wed.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Benign wind and sea conditions will continue thru tonight courtesy of a relaxed sfc pg due to weak offshore high pressure. Winds generally SE-SSE around 10 kt thru the period. Seas generally 2 ft or less, mainly dominated by a E-SE 7 to 9 second period wave. Sea breeze could push winds within 10 nm of the coast to around 15 kt this aftn and early evening.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...Winds become southerly on Sunday and increase to 10-15 knots. Slightly stronger near the coast with the assistance of a developing sea breeze. Winds turn SW on Monday and increase in response to a tighter pressure gradient. Gusts up to 20 knots are expected, but conditions should remain sub-SCA. Seas 2- 3 feet early this week increase to 3-4 feet during the middle portion of next week. Low impact easterly swell will continue through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Bannermans Branch
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Sat -- 12:33 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:59 PM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

New Topsail Inlet
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Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:03 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:51 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:33 PM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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