Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jacksonville, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:21PM Thursday October 28, 2021 3:49 PM EDT (19:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:28PMMoonset 1:23PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 258 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
.gale warning in effect from midnight edt tonight through late tonight...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming se 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. NEar shore, seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to very rough late this evening and overnight. Showers. A slight chance of tstms late this evening and early morning, then a chance of tstms late.
Fri..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 8 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. NEar shore, seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except around 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jacksonville, NC
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location: 34.7, -77.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 281805 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slide offshore today. A complex low pressure system will impact the region tonight into Saturday. High pressure will build in from the northwest Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1045 AM Thu . Increased cloud cover over the northern Outer Banks to account for some stratocu sneaking down the coast, and also increased some clouds over the far southwest. Still expecting periods of sun and clouds through midday, with the thicker, deeper moisture and clouds not arriving until mid afternoon. Temps and overall forecast still very much on track.

Prev disc . Quiet weather continues over eastern North Carolina this morning as upper ridge axis extending from the Florida Panhandle to the Great Lakes slowly breaks down ahead of a deep negatively tilted trough over the southern plains. At the surface, weak high pressure extends into the mid-Atlantic from the north while a surface low occludes over the Ozarks.

Conditions will remain generally pleasant for much of today as the high weakens and high clouds increase ahead of the approaching surface cyclone. Winds back southeasterly ahead of the low's attendant warm front, expected to be lifting into the Carolinas by the end of the period. Scattered shower activity will increase west of Highway 17 through dusk, but no severe activity is anticipated. Highs climb into the low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/. As of 355 AM Thu . The main event is expected tonight as the warm front approaches and then lifts across eastern North Carolina overnight, allowing for precipitation coverage to further increase, maximizing shortly after midnight. The biggest challenge for the forecast is the potential for severe storms overnight. The kinematic environment is more than favorable for supercell structures with effective shear 40+ kt and favorable 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2, but the fly in the ointment is instability which is forecast to be near non-existent until after 06z. All hi-res guidance points to a very short window of favorable severe conditions as the warm front crosses from southwest to northeast but the cold front close on its heels. This will provide a narrow area of MLCAPEs around 500 J/kg (the NAM suggests a generous but unlikely 1000+ J/kg), maximized along and south of Highway 70. If storms do form in this window, they will have the potential to produce damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes given forecast large hodographs.

Of particular note is a convective complex forecast by most CAMs to develop well to our south over the Gulf Stream and persist for much of the evening. Features like this have historically blocked any appreciable moisture and instability from being realized over our area, resulting in just some light stratiform rain. Therefore, the aforementioned severe threat is highly conditional and upstream conditions will need to be closely watched during the evening.

As the front crosses the waters, strong onshore winds will lead to dangerous surf conditions north of Cape Lookout overnight into Friday. Although gusts over OBX could reach above 40 mph at times, held off on a Wind Advisory for the area given high uncertainty.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 315 AM Thu . Active weather pattern through the first part of the period with troughing generally persisting over the eastern US and large complex low pressure system impacting the area Fri and Sat. High pressure will build over the area Sunday into early next week. A weak cold front will move through the area mid next week.

Friday through Saturday . Stacked low pressure over the TN valley region will slowly lift across the southern Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday. The associated warm front will continue to lift through the eastern NC Friday morning with occluding cold front following quickly behind it. The severe tstm threat will continue through Fri morning. Ample shear and low level helicity in place for strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and tornado threat, but instability remains the limiting factor. SPC currently has the E/NE portions of the area outlooked in a Marginal risk for Friday morning. Supercellular features producing damaging winds and possibly a few brief tornadoes are the main concern, especially for coastal areas. Pockets of moderate to locally heavy rain expected as well, as precip shifts NE through the forecast area. Precip expected to become more scattered Friday afternoon, with best chances across the NE. Warm and humid Fri with highs in the 70s, with dewpoints in the 60s falling back into the 50s through the day. Isolated showers Sat, best chances along the immediate coast. Cooler Sat with highs 65-70 deg.

Sunday through Tuesday . Low pressure will continues to lift through the NE US as trough axis shifts off the east coast. Upper flow becomes more zonal Sunday as sfc high pressure builds in from the WNW. Upper ridge begins to build across the SE Mon as next frontal system approaches from the west. Near normal temps expected with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows mid/upper 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

Tuesday and Thursday . High pressure will slide off the coast Tue as a weakening cold front approaches from the west. The front is progged to push through Tue night, though still some timing differences this far out. Little moisture with this feature, so will continue dry forecast through Wed. Moisture increases late week with low pressure moving through the gulf states. Near normal temps will continue through the period with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s/50s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. SHORT TERM /through Friday/ . As of 200 PM Thu . Rain will overspread the terminals by early evening with VFR conditions now dropping to MVFR quickly in lower clouds and precipitation. Models still hint at IFR possible after 03Z. With a breezy boundary layer, confidence is a bit lower that this will happen so we will continue with low end MVFR cigs, and SCT IFR cigs.

Rain clears the terminals quickly Friday morning but MVFR cigs should persist through mid morning before a return to VFR.

Southeast winds now veer into the south late tonight and eventually southwest Friday. Gusts to 20 kts possible especially tonight.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/ . As of 315 AM Thu . Widespread showers and isolated tstms will continue to lift through the area Fri morning, with periods of moderate to locally heavy rain. Sub-VFR conditions likely Fri morning with cigs grad improving through the day. Isolated to scattered showers Fri night and Sat. SE winds early Friday, becoming SSW and gusting 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

MARINE. SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/ . As of 1045 AM Thu . SCA conditions continue north of Cape Hatteras this morning with seas 6-8 feet with northerly winds 10-15 kt. Elsewhere, seas were around 2-4 feet with winds generally 10 kt or less. Main change to the marine forecast this update was to upgrade all offshore waters to a Gale Warning starting late tonight into Friday morning as southeasterly winds quickly increase ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest. The period of gales will be brief (4-6 hrs) but frequent gusts to 35 kt are expected, with higher winds likely especially for southern waters with convective enhancement.

The southeasterly winds will aid in seas quickly building after midnight, reaching 7-9 feet for southern waters and 8-12 feet for central and northern waters. High seas will continue well into the long term period.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/ . As of 405 AM Thu . Complex low pressure system will impact the waters Friday and Saturday. A warm front will continue to push through the waters Friday morning with the occluding cold front following quickly. Strong SE surge 20-30 kt with gusts 35-40 kt will continue to spread northward through the waters Fri morning. A brief period of gale force winds likely Friday morning. Dangerous seas expected, peaking at 7-12 ft (highest north of Lookout) Friday. Winds continue to veer becoming more SSW 15-25 kt later Fri. SW 15-25 kt winds Fri night and 10-20 kt Sat. High pressure will grad build in from the west Sun, with winds becoming W 10-20 kt. The high will crest over the area Mon with Nly winds 10-15 kt.

Seas 4-7 ft Sat grad subsiding to 3-6 ft Sun as winds diminish and become more offshore. Seas will continue to subside to 2-4 ft Mon.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 315 AM Thu . Strong SE winds will develop tonight and continue into the first part of Friday, before shifting SSW. Strong onshore winds will combine with large NE swells from distant low pressure. Will issue High Surf Advisory for the beaches north of Cape Lookout. Main concern is rough surf, minor beach erosion and localized ocean overwash (mainly along Hwy 12 in spots where with vulnerable dune structure), esp during times of high tide.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. High Surf Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . EH/MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . CQD AVIATION . EH/CQD/MS MARINE . EH/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 39 mi55 min E 8.9G9.9 67°F 71°F1011 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi55 min E 14G15 70°F 72°F1009.1 hPa
41159 41 mi53 min 80°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 42 mi101 min E 12G19 70°F 73°F1010.1 hPa
41064 42 mi41 min NE 12G18 71°F 80°F1009.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 42 mi53 min 73°F3 ft
MBNN7 43 mi49 min ESE 8.9G12 71°F 1009.1 hPa (-2.4)
WLON7 44 mi55 min 71°F 71°F1008.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 47 mi49 min ENE 9.9G12 67°F 1010.9 hPa (-1.7)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi41 min E 12G18 73°F 79°F1009.3 hPa
MBIN7 49 mi49 min ESE 12G15 71°F 1008.8 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MCAS New River, NC2 mi53 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast70°F56°F61%1010.3 hPa
Jacksonville, Albert J Ellis Airport, NC15 mi53 minSSE 410.00 miFair70°F56°F61%1010.6 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC19 mi1.9 hrsE 910.00 miFair71°F54°F55%1010.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNCA

Wind History from NCA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W11W6NW5W40SW50W3W30000000000SE4E4E6S6
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2 days agoE5SE6SE50S4S3S4S6S5SW8W10NW11W4W6W8NW5NW10NW15
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Tide / Current Tables for New River Inlet, North Carolina
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New River Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
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Bogue Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:35 PM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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