Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Maria, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:51PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 5:02 PM PST (01:02 UTC) Moonrise 10:37AMMoonset 8:41PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 238 Pm Pst Tue Dec 7 2021
Tonight..NW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds. Rain likely after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of rain in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 10 to 12 ft dominant period 10 seconds.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 7 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft. Chance of rain.
PZZ600 238 Pm Pst Tue Dec 7 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 22z, or 2 pm pst, a 1028 mb high was 600 nm W of point conception, while a 1012 mb low was over southeast california. A storm system will move through the waters on Thursday and will bring gusty nw winds with a moderate chance of gales over the outer waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Maria, CA
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location: 34.93, -120.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 080049 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 449 PM PST Tue Dec 7 2021

Updated Aviation Discussion

SYNOPSIS. 07/904 AM.

Dry and cool conditions expected the rest of today through Wednesday. A better chance of rain and mountain snow will move over the area with a stronger storm system between Wednesday night and Thursday. A cool air mass is expected to linger into the weekend, then a potentially significant storm system could affect the area early next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI). 07/128 PM.

We've entered an active period of weather but there will be at least a day or two of relative quiet between systems. The first of those is now through Wednesday evening. Dry weather but cool with mostly light winds and some clouds at times but also a fair amount of sunshine. The next system on tap for Thursday, though precip will likely begin before sunrise in many areas. Another light event overall but slightly higher rainfall than today's rain. And once again little to no southerly flow ahead of it so really no precip enhancement potential. In these scenarios the transverse ranges often provide a rain shadow to Ventura County so amounts there will likely be a tenth or less. Elsewhere probably in the tenth to quarter territory. Highest likely in northwest SLO County and eastern San Gabriels where up to around a half inch is possible. Minimal to no impacts with this one. Snow levels around 6000' for most of the precip portion of the event, with up to 3 or 4 inches possible at higher elevations. One potential issue to watch for is some post-frontal colder air coming in Thursday evening with northwest flow maybe generating some upslope showers near our border with Kern County. At that time snow levels drop to around 4500' so a dusting or a mix of rain and snow near the Grapevine in the evening can't be ruled out.

The next "break" in the weather will be Thursday night into Friday, though there will be some gusty winds during that time. First from the northwest Thursday night and then shifting to northeast Friday. Either or both of those events could be advisory level, though more likely Thursday night. The northwest winds will be focus in the mountains but could also sneak into southern Santa Barbara County, especially in the Montecito Hills area. The Friday winds will be of the Santa Ana variety and will focus on the usual parts of Ventura and LA Counties. Probably a better chance of advisory winds with the northwest event Thursday evening but there could be some brief advisory level gusts Friday as well. A little warmer on Friday but still mostly just low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE). 07/159 PM.

A little bit of warming over the weekend with lighter winds to continue to the overall quiet period. The next system, the strongest of the bunch by far, will hit the northwest coast of SLO County as early as Monday morning. Ensembles and deterministic solutions in remarkably good agreement on timing and strength, and run to run consistency has been very good as well so confidence is higher than usual this far out. However, having said that, it's not uncommon for storms that have strong southerly flow ahead of it to slow down prior to arrival. In any case, timing uncertainties aside, this has the ingredients for an impactful storm, and one that has the potential to cause some flooding issues beyond just the routine ponding of water. Not seeing a lot of convective potential yet, but strong orthogonal flow hitting the foothills and mountains should be enough to enhance rain rates to levels we haven't seen in quite some time. The most likely time frame for those higher rates appears to be on Tuesday when the cold front comes through. Will have more details later as we get closer but certainly rain totals in the 1-3" range seems like a good early estimate. Quite possibly higher (3-5") in the usual favored upslope areas like Rocky Butte in northwest SLO and in the Santa Ynez Range. Snow levels around 7000', so a good dump for the ski resorts but not much impact elsewhere through Tuesday. Potentially at lower elevations Wednesday depending on how much moisture is left behind the front.

AVIATION. 08/0047Z.

At 2323Z at KLAX, the marine layer was at 4000 feet deep. The top of the weak inversion was at 4500 feet at a temperature of 6 Celsius.

Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAFs. There is a 30% chance of MVFR cigs after 12Z at coastal and valley TAFs south of Point Conception, otherwise moderate confidence on cigs varying between BKN100 and BKN250.

KLAX . Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of BKN025 starting at 15Z. High confidence that any east wind component will stay below 4 kt.

KBUR . Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of BKN025 starting at 15Z.

MARINE. 07/853 AM.

NW winds have weakened to below SCA level for the outer waters along the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island early this morning. However, steep short-period choppy seas remain. Wave heights are expected to lower through the morning, so feel comfortable letting the current Small Craft Advisories expire. For the rest of the day and through Wednesday afternoon, good confidence that winds and seas will remain mellow and below SCA level. However, a strong eddy circulation may bring SE wind gusts of 10 to 15 kt through the San Pedro and Santa Barbara Channels through the morning and possibly again Wednesday morning. There will be a chance of light rain across the waters through the day.

NW winds will strengthen again Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across all the waters ahead of an approaching storm. High confidence in at least SCA level conditions over all the waters by mid to late Thursday morning lasting through at least Friday morning. There is also moderate confidence (50% chance) of Gales across the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island developing by Thursday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory level winds are likely across the inner waters. These gusty winds will create dangerous short- period seas over all the waters. Seas over 10 feet are likely across the outermost waters, mainly on Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE).

Lingering rain and snow showers are possible Thursday evening near the Grapevine. Gusty northwest to northeast winds are expected late Thursday into Friday. Gales are possible across the coastal waters between Thursday and Friday. A potentially significant storm system should move over the region between late Monday into Tuesday.



PUBLIC . MW AVIATION . Lund MARINE . Sweet/Stewart SYNOPSIS . MW

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 23 mi117 min 60°F 58°F
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 27 mi63 min 0G1 57°F 1014.1 hPa (-0.0)
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 29 mi37 min 62°F3 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 31 mi33 min WSW 1.9G3.9 1014.8 hPa
HRVC1 34 mi135 min 57°F 1014.7 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 38 mi37 min 59°F4 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 45 mi33 min SSW 1.9G3.9 59°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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This dayW5
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N2
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NW7
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ago
W13
G17
W11
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W13
N1
G4
SW1
SW3
N2
G5
W1
--
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S1
SW3
G6
NE2
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G6
E1
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NE1
SE4
NE4
G16
N11
G16
N6
G15
N12
G19
N11
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA1 mi72 minNW 68.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F53°F81%1014.5 hPa
Lompoc, Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA14 mi65 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F53°F92%1014.9 hPa
Lompoc, Lompoc Airport, CA18 mi67 minWNW 810.00 miFair59°F53°F81%1014.4 hPa
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA24 mi67 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F51°F67%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSMX

Wind History from SMX (wind in knots)
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This day0S40S4S60E3SE3S60SE4SE4SE40S300E53W7W3W7NW6NW4
1 day agoW30000SE3N70NW70W30S30E40NW3W5NW7NW14NW3NW6NW100
2 days agoW4NW40S5S6E3S3E30000E4SE400NW9NW11NW10W10W12NW15NW9NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:27 AM PST     1.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:49 AM PST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:39 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:51 AM PST     3.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:25 PM PST     -4.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:41 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Avila, California, Tide feet
12
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1.2
1
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1.2
2
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0.8
3
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0.3
4
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-0.1
5
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-0.2
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0.1
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0.7
8
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1.6
9
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2.5
10
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3.2
11
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3.4
12
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3
1
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2.1
2
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0.7
3
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-0.9
4
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-2.3
5
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-3.4
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-4
7
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-3.9
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-3.3
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-2.3
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-1
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0.1


Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis Wharf, California
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Port San Luis Wharf
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:53 AM PST     3.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:12 AM PST     2.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:39 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:25 AM PST     6.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:04 PM PST     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:41 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Port San Luis Wharf, California, Tide feet
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3.6
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3.8
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2.7
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4.5
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1.5
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0.2
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-0.7
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-1
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-0.7
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-0
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1
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2.1


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