Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:24PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 3:45 AM EST (08:45 UTC) Moonrise 7:03PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 101 Am Est Wed Jan 19 2022
Rest of tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy. Rain.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy. Rain.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy. Rain.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 190231 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 931 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will move overhead tonight, and then slide offshore tomorrow. A cold front will move through the area and stall to our south Thursday night. Low pressure developing along the stalled front will bring significant winter weather to the area Friday and into the weekend. Behind this system high pressure builds into the area through early next week.

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/. As of 930 PM Tues . No significant changes needed to previous forecast for late eve update. Temps falling quickly with calm winds and clear skies. High pressure will build overhead tonight and begin to slide offshore early tomorrow morning. This will allow for a very quiet night with clear skies continuing and winds becoming mostly calm. Temperatures will drop precipitously early this evening with great radiational cooling conditions present, and most locations should be in the low to mid 30s before 8pm. Temps will continue to fall early tonight, however high clouds streaming eastward into the area overnight will likely limit additional cooling, and expect low temps to occur shortly after midnight with readings in the upper 20s to low 30s. Temps then remain mostly steady through tomorrow morning for most spots, but will likely rise along the coast southerly winds begin to pick up towards daybreak.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 300 PM Tues . High pressure will shift offshore tomorrow and southerly flow will strengthen through the day. Low level heights will be building through the day, and should support high temps reaching the upper 50s to low 60s across the forecast area. High pressure remains offshore tomorrow night, and skies will start out mostly clear with clouds expected to increase through the night. Low temps will remain mostly in the mid to upper 40s across inland areas, and in the low 50s along the immediate coast where a steady breeze will remain.

A cold front will approach the area Thursday, likely crossing into the northern portion of the forecast area late in the day. Out ahead of the front, warm SW flow will continue, and temperatures will again climb into the 60s across the southern half of the area though there will be clouds around. Farther north temps will be a bit cooler, remaining in the upper 50s, and then dropping sharply behind the front late in the day. Some widely scattered showers will be possible out ahead of the front, with a period of more widespread showers likely as the front moves south through the area late in the day.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 300 PM Tue . A cold front will pass through on Thursday and stall just off the Southeastern Seaboard. Low pressure will form along the front and move northeastward off the Carolina coast. This will bring a threat for significant ice and sleet across a good portion of Eastern NC away from the immediate coast.

Thursday night through Friday night . A high impact winter weather event appears to be unfolding this period, with a signal for potential significant icing for parts of ENC. The aforementioned sfc cold front will stall off of the Southeastern Seaboard this period. A wave of low pres develops along this boundary Thur night. 18/00Z global models indicating a frontal inversion developing over ENC Thu night and into Fri, and with most guidance indicating 850 mb temps above freezing, limiting the chances for snow (GFS is colder aloft and indicating some snow, though a known bias of the GFS is cold thermal profiles aloft). With sfc temps at or below freezing, the threat for a prolonged period of ice/sleet will come into play, as upper flow will be nearly parallel to the frontal boundary. ECMWF/CMC continue to be especially concerning, indicating significant freezing rain totals across much of the Coastal Plain counties. GFS is now catching on to this scenario as well for the swrn counties as it has trended further north with the warm nose with this latest cycle.

Relied heavily on raw model T's for temp forecast, as MOS guidance is much too warm with sfc T's in strong frontal inversion/CAD events. Most of the FA along and west of a Jacksonville to Plymouth line will not get above freezing on Friday, and far wrn counties will remain in the 20s. This does not bode well for ice accretion, which would be efficient and significant with these temperatures.

Friday morning, there may be a period of freezing rain or sleet as far east as the Crystal coast and the Columbia area, but a strengthening NE wind should bring a maritime airmass in and change over to rain by afternoon with temps rising above freezing.

Friday night, the aforementioned low will be moving northeastward off the NC coast. How close to the coast the low moves will dictate if a warmer push moves further inland, like the ECMWF is indicating, as it is nearest the NC coast. For now, have split the difference and blended ECMWF/CMC, keeping the freezing rain or sleet threat ongoing for interior zones. By late night, the low will be moving away from the coast and CAA will ensue. A changeover to some snow showers may occur as far east as the coastal counties before precip ends, but should be trivial as moisture is quickly waning.

Saturday through Tuesday . Drier air finally filters in with passage of slow- moving positive tilt upper trough, and temps will remain below climo with longwave troughing continuing across the eastern half of the CONUS. Highs generally 35-45 with lows in the low 20s interior to 30s coast.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/ . As of 625 PM Tue . Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure in control. Increasing mid and high clouds overnight and Wed. Winds will decouple overnight though increasing cloud cover and dry airmass should limit fog threat.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ . As of 300 PM Tue . VFR conditions persist through Thursday afternoon as high pressure remains ridging into the area. A cold front will move through Thu night with rain and the potential for sub-VFR conditions. Widespread wintry precipitation mostly in the form of freezing rain and sleet is becoming a big threat Friday and continued sub VFR conditions are expected. Low pressure will pull away by Sat with return to VFR.

MARINE. SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/ . As of 930 PM Tues . Latest obs show variable winds 5-10 kt with seas 3-5 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-3 ft south. Good boating conditions expected through tomorrow with high pressure over the area. Winds will become light and variable through early tonight. Light southerly flow less than 10 kts will then develop early tomorrow morning. Winds will strengthen through the day tomorrow becoming SW 10-20 kts by mid afternoon. Seas will be 3-5 ft for the next few hours, and then subside to 2-4 ft through tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ . As of 300 PM Tue . Winds remain swrly on Wednesday night and Thursday as high pres shifts offshore, though speeds only 5-15 kt expected, with perhaps some 20 kt winds over the ctrl/srn warmer coastal waters. Strong cold front moves through late Thu with winds becoming nrly and inc in speeds to 20-30 kt. May see period of gales develop by Friday depending on strength of a potential developing coastal storm.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CQD/SGK SHORT TERM . SGK LONG TERM . TL/SGK AVIATION . CQD/TL/SGK MARINE . CQD/TL/SGK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi46 min N 1.9G2.9 37°F 49°F1024.2 hPa (+0.5)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi46 min 0G0 44°F 1025.8 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last 24 hrNW7
G13
NW7
G14
NW7
G11
NW8
G13
N9
G12
N10
G15
N11
G18
NW10
G15
N7
G11
N4
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G5
W2
G5
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1 day
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W14
G23
W14
G26
W12
G24
W12
G19
W11
G18
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G21
W7
G18
W14
G21
W11
G20
W7
G18
W7
G16
NW13
G18
W10
G20
NW12
G18
W10
G18
NW14
G17
NW16
NW12
G17
NW11
G16
W7
G15
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G11
NW10
G18
W8
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N13
G18
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NE13
G17
NE10
G19
NE12
G20
NE9
G19
NE5
G12
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G17
SE15
G21
E17
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G26
SE18
G25
SE19
G27
SW12
G31
W12
G22
W10
G19
W8
G13
W8
G15
SW8
G13
SW6
G13
W14
G27
W12
G24
W14
G23

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC9 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair29°F26°F89%1025.2 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair29°F27°F92%1025.6 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair32°F28°F85%1025.4 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair31°F27°F85%1025.9 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC23 mi50 minESE 410.00 miFair41°F31°F67%1025.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrW6W10W8NW5NW4NW9NW14N13NW8N7NW8N5NE6N500E4SE4000SE300
1 day agoSW25
G34
SW20
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SW17
G25
SW17
G23
SW19
G24
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G29
SW21
G27
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G30
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2 days agoN12NE15N12N13NE16
G22
NE19NE18
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NE9--SE16
G23
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SW15W17
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G28
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:29 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:35 AM EST     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:18 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:55 PM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
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1.3
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1.9
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1.6
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1.8
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1.6


Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:27 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:29 AM EST     1.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:49 PM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet
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1.1


Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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