Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:45 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 281031 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 631 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
The warming trend will continue into next week as high pressure remains centered just off the Atlantic Coast. A weak cold front is expected to move through the area on Tuesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A stronger front is expected to approach the Carolinas by late week and bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
600 AM Update...Current IR imagery shows continued terrain induced clouds with low bases. These clouds will limit the fog potential across the mtn valleys. A few spots arnd KUZA are developing dense fog, but dont expect a widespread of dense fog threat thru the morning hours.

Strong stacked ridging continues to dominate the pattern over the near term period. Today's weather will be similar to Sat and a modified persistence method was used for the fcst. Still expect good llvl Atl moisture adv today and low clouds will be present in some fashion with the higher coverage likely across the BR escarpment due to mech uplift. Could still see a period or two of -ra/dz or sprinkles mainly across the NC mtns, but isol pockets may traverse the Upstate and NE GA as well thru noon. Confidence was not high enuf for a PoP mention, however. Lessening cloud cover during the afternoon and more of a defined s/y to sw/ly llvl flow shud help max temps to reach a cat or so abv normal. Overnight will see lowering cloudiness as well with mid/upper dry air advection. Thus, along with weak to calm sfc winds, expect min temps lowering to or a little below normal levels.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 2:55 AM EDT Sunday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on Monday with broad upper ridging still centered over the Eastern CONUS and an h5 low riding up the ridge and towards the western Great Lakes. Over the next 24 hrs or so, an embedded upper short- wave will approach our area from the west and help push the upper ridge eastward. The shortwave will gradually translate over our area late Tuesday and then move off the Carolina Coast as the period is ending early Wednesday. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered just off the SE Coast keeping warm and dry SLY low-level flow over our area. Over the next 24 to 36 hrs, a weak cold front will approach our fcst area from the west. The latest guidance appears to be trending a bit slower with front's approach, and now suggests that it will move thru our CWA later on Tuesday.
This will likely result in more sfc-based instability across much of our area when the front moves thru, and thus better convective coverage Tuesday aftn/evening. This instability coupled with the above-mentioned upper shortwave could produce some stronger thunder- storms over our area. Regardless, the boundary should be east of our CWA by the end of the period early Wednesday. Temperatures start out 1 to 2 categories above climatology on Monday and remain above climo thru the period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 2:35 AM EDT Sunday: The extended forecast picks up at 12z on Wednesday with an embedded upper shortwave moving off the Carolina Coast as heights rebound over the Southeast and upper ridging begins to gradually amplify. Over the next couple of days, numerous weak upper shortwaves will lift to our north and towards the Ohio Valley region. As we head into next weekend, broader upper trofing will dig further southward and morph into a large, closed upper low somewhere over the Great Lakes region. This will act to flatten the upper ridge over our area as the period is ending. At the sfc, high pressure will still be centered off the Southeast Coast as a weak cold front moves east of our CWA as the period begins early Wednesday. In the front's wake, we'll remain under weak, SLY low-level flow with the sfc high remaining nearly stationary offshore and with a slight chance for diurnal convection on Wed and more of a solid chance for Thursday.
By early Friday, reinforcing high pressure will migrate southward from New England and settle just off the mid-Atlantic Coast. At the same time, a more robust low is progged to eject out of the Plains and bring a stronger cold front to our area by early Saturday. Most of the long-range guidance has the front moving thru our area on Sat with sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely Fri aftn thru much of Sat. Weak high pressure slides in behind the front as the period ends early Sunday. Temperatures will remain well-above climatology thru the period.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds will continue across the area this morning with occasional MVFR CIGs possible across most terminals, except KCLT arnd daybreak. These clouds will lift or scatter fairly quickly at KGMU/KHKY, but may linger longer toward noon at KAVL and KAND. KCLT could see IFR VSBY and have included a TEMPO thru 14z.
VFR conds return to all sites by the afternoon and flight conds remain non-restrictive thru the period. Southerly to southwesterly winds will remain light/moderate with no great gust potential as the sfc p/grad relaxes and relatively weak winds persist within the BL.

Outlook: Dry weather lingers through Monday. A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms to the area on Tuesday, with more of a potential for mainly mountain isolated/scattered diurnal convection on Wed/Thu.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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