Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dillard, GA
May 19, 2024 1:17 PM EDT (17:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:22 AM Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 4:05 PM Moonset 3:12 AM |
Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 191612 AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1212 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will exit off the Carolina Coast today, with high pressure building in from the north. Relatively dry conditions return for the first half of the week resulting in only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms in the mountains. A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1140 AM: Forecast moving along as expected this morning, so minimal changes were made as we head into the afternoon. Expect the cloud cover to gradually scatter out over the Piedmont. No need yet to make any changes to precip probs.
Otherwise...a closed low is centered over GA embedded within a shortwave which will slowly drift east into the Carolinas today. Main precip remaining over the area is very light and associated with deformation zone of the shortwave or via very weak convection along the front itself. Updated PoPs to allow this precip to slowly decay and focus increasingly south.
Beneath the shortwave, we retain pretty good lapse rates through most of the daytime hours. The northeasterly flow associated with the sfc high is deep and forcing really comes from the CAA, with no appreciable warm upglide. A subsidence inversion will persist over most of the Piedmont and should preclude new convection there this afternoon. However, over the mountains, the inversion will be weaker but also some degree of low-level convergence will be present owing to slightly more backed flow behind the shortwave meeting the easterly flow from the high. This should provide slight forcing. Deep dry air in the mid to upper levels would appear difficult for the relatively mild instability to overcome, so PoPs have been limited to chance range in the mountains. Storms likely will be slow moving but PWATs will be considerably lower than what we saw overnight, somewhat mitigating heavy rain threat. With the NE winds continuing, max temps will be several degrees below normal despite partial sunshine. Remaining PoPs will diminish nocturnally; some low stratus could develop near the Blue Ridge Escarpment overnight in the wedgelike easterly flow. Mins will be around normal.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday: The warming trend will continue through the forecast period as lower elevation max temperatures climb into the middle 80s by Wednesday. Building upper ridge atop the SE CONUS will keep the atmosphere suppressed, save for diurnal isolated ridgetop deep conection in the NC mtns Tuesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday: Upper ridging across the Southeast and along the East Coast will begin to gradually break down, as a series of shortwaves eject out of the Rockies. Wednesday looks like the last dry day, with stronger capping resulting in no mentionable PoPs and temps a few degrees above normal. From there, a cold front is fcst to sag southeastward across the Ohio Valley and bring a return of mainly diurnal convection to the area. Most activity will be in the northern part of the forecast area Thursday as the front approaches, but then expands south for Friday. A pronounced shortwave trough crosses the area Friday, which may enhance convective coverage and contribute to bulk shear. But the 00z deterministic guidance is still not in great agreement on placement of the front and resulting QPF response. The ECMWF still is a little north of the area Friday compared to the GFS and Canadian. Overall, a more active convective pattern is expected to continue from Friday thru the weekend. Temps will continue to be slightly above normal thru the end of the medium range.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Backdoor front pushed south of the terminal area overnight leaving NE winds in place for the period. Low-end gusts are really not out of the question any time thru sunset. Cigs are proving somewhat variable but low MVFR to IFR will be common through late morning. Light precip ongoing near KGSP/KGMU/KCLT may provide enough downward motion to scatter the low decks and allow for periodic improvement. Expect that enough sfc warming will occur by 15-17z to eliminate the IFR, but with subsidence inversion persisting bases may not lift above MVFR level in spots, but scattering still expected by early aftn. Low stratus could creep in from the NE tonight but confidence only moderate, so will keep cloud mention SCT near daybreak Mon.
Additional note for KAVL: Weak low-level convergence will persist over the Appalachians today along with weak instability, so a TEMPO is retained for chance of isolated or widely sct TSRA this aftn. Winds are expected to flip to SE this evening.
Outlook: Stronger high pressure settles over the region Monday and persists through midweek, but isolated mountaintop convection still appears possible both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Precip and restrictions possible with next front arriving circa Friday.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1212 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will exit off the Carolina Coast today, with high pressure building in from the north. Relatively dry conditions return for the first half of the week resulting in only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms in the mountains. A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1140 AM: Forecast moving along as expected this morning, so minimal changes were made as we head into the afternoon. Expect the cloud cover to gradually scatter out over the Piedmont. No need yet to make any changes to precip probs.
Otherwise...a closed low is centered over GA embedded within a shortwave which will slowly drift east into the Carolinas today. Main precip remaining over the area is very light and associated with deformation zone of the shortwave or via very weak convection along the front itself. Updated PoPs to allow this precip to slowly decay and focus increasingly south.
Beneath the shortwave, we retain pretty good lapse rates through most of the daytime hours. The northeasterly flow associated with the sfc high is deep and forcing really comes from the CAA, with no appreciable warm upglide. A subsidence inversion will persist over most of the Piedmont and should preclude new convection there this afternoon. However, over the mountains, the inversion will be weaker but also some degree of low-level convergence will be present owing to slightly more backed flow behind the shortwave meeting the easterly flow from the high. This should provide slight forcing. Deep dry air in the mid to upper levels would appear difficult for the relatively mild instability to overcome, so PoPs have been limited to chance range in the mountains. Storms likely will be slow moving but PWATs will be considerably lower than what we saw overnight, somewhat mitigating heavy rain threat. With the NE winds continuing, max temps will be several degrees below normal despite partial sunshine. Remaining PoPs will diminish nocturnally; some low stratus could develop near the Blue Ridge Escarpment overnight in the wedgelike easterly flow. Mins will be around normal.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday: The warming trend will continue through the forecast period as lower elevation max temperatures climb into the middle 80s by Wednesday. Building upper ridge atop the SE CONUS will keep the atmosphere suppressed, save for diurnal isolated ridgetop deep conection in the NC mtns Tuesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday: Upper ridging across the Southeast and along the East Coast will begin to gradually break down, as a series of shortwaves eject out of the Rockies. Wednesday looks like the last dry day, with stronger capping resulting in no mentionable PoPs and temps a few degrees above normal. From there, a cold front is fcst to sag southeastward across the Ohio Valley and bring a return of mainly diurnal convection to the area. Most activity will be in the northern part of the forecast area Thursday as the front approaches, but then expands south for Friday. A pronounced shortwave trough crosses the area Friday, which may enhance convective coverage and contribute to bulk shear. But the 00z deterministic guidance is still not in great agreement on placement of the front and resulting QPF response. The ECMWF still is a little north of the area Friday compared to the GFS and Canadian. Overall, a more active convective pattern is expected to continue from Friday thru the weekend. Temps will continue to be slightly above normal thru the end of the medium range.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Backdoor front pushed south of the terminal area overnight leaving NE winds in place for the period. Low-end gusts are really not out of the question any time thru sunset. Cigs are proving somewhat variable but low MVFR to IFR will be common through late morning. Light precip ongoing near KGSP/KGMU/KCLT may provide enough downward motion to scatter the low decks and allow for periodic improvement. Expect that enough sfc warming will occur by 15-17z to eliminate the IFR, but with subsidence inversion persisting bases may not lift above MVFR level in spots, but scattering still expected by early aftn. Low stratus could creep in from the NE tonight but confidence only moderate, so will keep cloud mention SCT near daybreak Mon.
Additional note for KAVL: Weak low-level convergence will persist over the Appalachians today along with weak instability, so a TEMPO is retained for chance of isolated or widely sct TSRA this aftn. Winds are expected to flip to SE this evening.
Outlook: Stronger high pressure settles over the region Monday and persists through midweek, but isolated mountaintop convection still appears possible both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Precip and restrictions possible with next front arriving circa Friday.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
Greer, SC,
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