Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oriental, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:26PM Thursday October 21, 2021 5:47 PM EDT (21:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:10PMMoonset 7:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 334 Pm Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers late.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves light chop.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC
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location: 35.03, -76.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 212004 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 404 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure slides further offshore today. A cold front pushes through later tomorrow into Saturday, with high pressure building in from the northwest Sunday, and then pushing offshore early next week. A developing low pressure system will likely affect the area by mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 340 PM Thursday . Ridging south of the area persists while a weak cold front approaches from the NW, bringing a local enhancement of the gradient and improved low to mid level moisture advection. Light/low topped showers could begin to develop overnight over the Gulfstream potentially working over the coast into early Friday morning, with limited if any QPF expected. Increasingly warm and humid airmass fills in overnight, with dew points surging into the lower to mid 60s by sunrise Friday. Accordingly, low much more mild/muggy than the last several days, with lows only dropping into the lower to mid 60s with light SW winds persisting inland and breezy conditions along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. As of 350 PM Thursday . A cold front will slowly work its way into the area tomorrow from the west. Ahead of the front, temps will climb well into the 70s, and eventually dewpoints will surge into the upper 60s by the afternoon and into the evening. Initially, mostly scattered showers are possible Friday morning through early afternoon. As the front works across the Inner Coastal Plain, moisture continues to build in with PWats climbing over 1.5in, allowing instability to build to 1-1.5 kJ/kg inland, up to 2kj/kg in areas affected by the seabreeze along the SWern coast, and potentially over 2.5kJ/kg over the still warm waters just off the coast, making scattered thunderstorms possible. Tstorms become most widespread late afternoon and into the evening across the eastern half of the area, just ahead of the front. Given the favorable dynamics over the forecast area, featuring 30-40 kts of shear, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, capable of some damaging wind gusts, and pockets of greater low level helicity indicate there is potential for an isolated tornado.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 300 AM Thurs . A cold front continues to cross the region Friday night, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe. Then, high pressure builds in from the northwest this weekend, and slides offshore early next week, with warm temps continuing. A developing low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday Night . Convection will be slow to push offshore Friday night, but the front will eventually clear the coast before sunrise Saturday morning.

Saturday through Monday . High pressure builds in from the northwest Saturday morning. Measly CAA behind the front will only knock down low level heights slightly, and highs are expected to be mostly in the mid 70s. High pressure will slide overhead Saturday night, and then offshore Sunday, with warmer conditions anticipated Sunday and Monday with southerly flow developing. Have highs in the upper 70s to low 80s both days, with Monday the warmer of the two days.

Tuesday and Wednesday . Models have changed much since yesterday, but have come into good agreement over the last couple forecast cycles that during this period an area of low pressure will push eastward across the lower Ohio Valley, and then transfer to the Southeast coast as an upper level trough deepens while pushing east of the Appalachians. Decent timing differences remain, but the track of the system has better agreement among the latest cycle of forecast models. Have mostly chance PoPs for this period, in the 30-40% range given the model spread, but the potential for more widespread rain is certainly there. Temperatures during this period will be cooler, but remain around average.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. SHORT TERM /through Friday Morning/ . As of 100 PM Thursday . VFR prevails through the period with some upper level clouds streaming in from the SW. SWerly winds around 10kt with gusts to 15kt this afternoon, inland terminals may experience slightly higher gusts. Gusts die down with sunset. Low level moisture transport increases this evening and overnight, with increasing low, but still VFR, clouds developing, with persistent SW winds precluding any fog threat.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/ . As of 315 AM Thurs . A cold front will cross the region Friday and Friday night, and bring the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, becoming most widespread late afternoon and evening. This could lead to some periods of sub-VFR conditions. High pressure then builds into the area Saturday through Monday, with VFR conditions expected.

MARINE. SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/ . As of 400 PM Thursday . Moderate SW winds continue to increase as surface ridging persists S of the area and a cold front begins to approach from the NW. As the gradient tightens further this evening with 15-20 kt expect across the waters, and gusts to 25-30 kt mainly limited to the coastal waters and eastern Pamlico Sound, with a wind driven SCA remaining in effect accordingly. Winds peak late evening/overnight, before very slowly subsiding through the early morning hours as the ridging to our south weakens.

Seas build from 2-3 ft in weak local windswell to 3-5 ft this evening and overnight in response the the stronger SW winds developing.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/ . As of 320 AM Thurs . Moderate SW winds will continue Friday ahead of a cold front, with winds mostly 15-20 kts through the day. Behind the front winds will turn to the WNW at 10-15 kts by Saturday morning, and then shift to the north Saturday night. Winds on Sunday will become light and variable before coming around to the S/SE at 5-10 kts. Southerly flow then continues Monday at 10-15 kts.

Seas Friday morning will remain elevated at 3-5 ft, and then subside slightly to 3-4 ft by Friday afternoon. Seas subside to 2-3 ft on Saturday and then remain steady through Monday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CB/CEB SHORT TERM . SGK/CEB LONG TERM . SGK/CB AVIATION . SGK/CEB MARINE . SGK/CB/CEB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi47 min SSW 9.9G14 73°F 72°F1019.6 hPa (-1.2)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 30 mi47 min SSW 13G16 73°F 1019.6 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC13 mi51 minSSW 1310.00 miFair77°F60°F56%1019.2 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi1.9 hrsSSW 107.00 miClear75°F59°F58%1018.8 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC19 mi53 minSSW 910.00 miFair76°F59°F56%1018.7 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi49 minSSW 1410.00 miFair73°F61°F66%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6--S4SW5S6SW4SW5W6SW5----SW6--SW6--SW5SW4SW6SW8SW9SW13
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1 day agoS5S6S6SW5S5--SW3SW5SW5W7W7W7SW6SW6--W4--W7--W6W9--W7SW7
2 days agoW8W8NW8--W5W6W5SW7SW6W8NW7N5N6N6N5--N6NE7E4NE550W5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:57 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:01 AM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:38 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:00 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:15 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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