Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:26PM Thursday October 28, 2021 4:11 PM EDT (20:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 1:33PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 281936 CCA AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 336 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A storm system will cross the Carolinas tonight through Saturday, resulting in a period of heavy rain tonight, then a few passing light rain showers Friday and Saturday. Clearing weather is in store for Sunday as the storm system exits to our northeast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 240 PM Thursday .

Complex pattern in place now with a large closed upper low over MO . a sfc low over SE MO . an occluded front extending from the sfc low SE to a triple point over the southern AL/GA/FL borders, and the typical warm and cold front extending east and south respectively from the TP low. Mesoanalysis shows an H7 and PWAT moisture plume elongated just east of the aforementioned frontal system. A large area of prefrontal rain assoc with this moisture plume is lifting north across the Carolinas. While the radar currently shows rain beginning to move from SW to NE into our CWA, this initial batch of rain will dry up before reaching the ground, given the antecedent dry air in place over central NC. It's worth pointing out that mesoanal also suggests a weak CAD pattern is also in place across our area, so this initial batch of virga may in fact re-enforce the CAD. Forecast soundings suggest that the atmosphere will moisten adequately for rain to reach the ground by 5 PM across our Triad and western zones, perhaps a bit earlier than that for our SC border counties, and between 7-9 PM for our Triangle counties north and eastward. So in summary for the rest of this afternoon into the evening, look for increasing and lowering clouds, with rain gradually developing and overspreading central NC from SW to NE.

For the late evening and overnight period . look for occasional rain bands to lift north across central NC as vigorous moist sly flow lifts up and over the aforementioned cool/stable low levels. This will set us up for periods of moderate rain at times, with most of central NC seeing anywhere from 1/2 to 1 inch of rainfall.

Finally, the concern for severe convection. Given the dry stable low levels currently in place, the key to any convection across our far eastern zones will be the extent to which the higher-dwpt airmass (65+ deg dwpts) currently along and off the GA coast can advect northward and inland. Based on latest CAM guidance and HREF members, it appears that the moist buoyant airmass later this evening and overnight is unlikely to penetrate very far inland, so the greatest risk for severe convection now appears to be limited to more immediate coastal areas and offshore. So while the highest risk for severe convection is well to our east, it's worth pointing out that given the strength of this system, we don't want to completely rule-out thunder and possibly even a marginally gusty thunderstorm across our far eastern zones later tonight, so for now will keep that mention limited to areas east of I-95, and corresponds well with the latest SWODY1. In summary for late this evening and over . couple rounds of heavy downpours can be expected with the main hazard being brief flooding of poor drainage areas; but overall, the greatest svr wind and tornado risk is now to our east. Lows tonight in the mid-upr 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 254 PM Thursday .

Our wx pattern will remain dominated by the aforementioned close low, which will move from WRN TN early Friday to the central spine of the Appalachians by Friday night.

Despite the dry slot on the southern periphery of the low moving across the Carolinas early in the day, scattered showers will remain in the forecast for Friday and Friday night given the combination of mid/upr disturbances rotating around the larger cyclonic flow, coupled with patches of enhanced moisture ejecting east from the low. Despite having rain the forecast, it's worth noting that this period of time won't be a washout, and in fact there may be a fair amount of sunshine from time-to-time, and any passing showers should be brief resulting in very light rainfall amounts.

Highs Friday will generally range from 65 to 70; but with llvl thickness gradually decreasing during the day in the wake of late tonight's cold front, and lows Friday night will drop to the mid to upper 40s under partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 330 PM Thursday .

The strong closed mid/upper low will lift NE from western Virginia into Upstate New York on Saturday and Saturday night. The weakening/occluded surface low will follow a similar track along the spine of the Appalachians, with a surface trough setting up over the Mid-Atlantic. While an isolated sprinkle or light shower can't be ruled out on Saturday as the center of the mid/upper low makes its closest approach, the environment will be so stable and dry (PW values only around three quarters of an inch) that most of the region should remain precipitation-free. The ECMWF and NAM are entirely dry and the wettest model (GFS) only has a few hundredths of an inch at most. Thus only have slight chance POPs in N/NW zones. High temperatures will be in the upper-50s to mid-60s, which is roughly 5 degrees below normal, with lows Saturday night in the mid- 40s to 50.

As the mid/upper low continues to lift north and get absorbed by another mid/upper low over eastern Canada, strong height rises and W/NW flow aloft mean high confidence in sunny skies and dry weather on Sunday and Monday. A shortwave trough rotating around the base of the low in eastern Canada will result in some weak forcing for precipitation on Tuesday, but at this time it looks to remain north of the area. Models then show the next cold front moving through late Tuesday/early Wednesday and stalling south of the area. With continued westerly flow aloft and PW values only an inch at most, the front looks pretty moisture-starved, so not expecting much precipitation if any with it. A better chance of rain comes on Thursday as a wave of low pressure riding along the front approaches from the SW, but on the ECMWF it is slower and doesn't reach central NC until Thursday night/Friday. For now just have slight to low chance POPs on Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday will be near normal (highs in the mid-60s to lower-70s and lows in the lower-to-mid-40s) before turning slightly below normal on Wednesday and Thursday behind the cold front.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1251 PM Thursday .

Through 18Z Friday: VFR and mainly clear skies attm will quickly give way to increasing mid clouds (but still VFR) the rest of this afternoon as a large patch of light rain (now ongoing across much of SC) moves nwd into and eventually across central NC as the afternoon progresses. Much of the initial rain will evap before reaching the ground but will result in gradually lowering cigs. Flight conditions will then quickly drop to IFR once the atmosphere moistens adequately and the heavier rain moves in from south to north during the evening hours (mainly after 00Z). Look for IFR conditions and occasional periods of rain, some heavy at times, during the overnight hours. Flight condition should improve Friday morning after 11Z when the heavier bands of rain exit to our NE, leaving 2.5-5k ft AGL cigs in its wake. Look for E-SE sfc winds to be 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt through tonight, with higher gusts assoc with the scattered heavier downpours. After these downpours exit to our NE, winds will become SW generally in the 6-12kt range.

After 18Z Friday: The main concern during the late-Friday through Saturday period will be passing showers from time-to-time. Outside of this shower activity we'll see mainly VFR conditions. However, during and invof of said showers flt conditions may briefly drop to MVFR or IFR. Also worth noting that there could be a brief period of fog or stratus both Saturday and Sunday mornings around sunrise. Otherwise, look for improving skies during the daytime Sunday.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . np NEAR TERM . np SHORT TERM . np LONG TERM . Danco AVIATION . np


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi41 min ESE 7G9.9 60°F 1005.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi75 minS 710.00 miLight Rain67°F57°F72%1007 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi15 minSE 310.00 miLight Rain64°F59°F84%1009 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi15 minS 410.00 miLight Rain67°F57°F69%1008.3 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi19 minSE 710.00 miOvercast67°F59°F76%1007.8 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi15 minSE 710.00 miLight Rain68°F57°F69%1007.7 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi16 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F60°F87%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFF

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Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Thu -- 03:04 AM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:46 AM EDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:09 PM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
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Thu -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 04:13 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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