Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 1253 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon - .
This afternoon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers early. Tonight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with a few gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.

AMZ100 1253 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Breezy northeasterly winds early this week with a high pressure ridging from our north and low pressure offshore. Mostly dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

FXUS62 KMHX 191721 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 121 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/
As of 115 PM Sunday... Made no significant changes to the forecast for this afternoon as mostly cloudy skies and cool temps will continue.

Prev Disc...Lingering line of light rain is currently along a weak, elevated back door cold front mainly north of hwy 264 and east of hwy 17, slowly moving east- southeast and dissipating over the next few hours. NE flow kept lows near 60 inland and for NOBX, increasing to the mid 60s at the Crystal Coast.
Instability remains non- existent with NE flow, but weak forcing is anticipated in the afternoon as an elevated back door cold front treks through the region from the north. For this reason, a few pop up weak showers are possible in the afternoon and evening Sunday, particularly near the Crystal Coast. Minimal QPF is expected from these showers. This has been handled by Schc PoPs for light showers south of hwy 264 where the moisture profile is a bit more impressive, and no mentionable PoPs to the north. With low level clouds decreasing for the coastal plain in the afternoon, we should warm up to near 70 inland despite the cooling NE flow. Coolest spot will be NOBX where the NE flow and stubborn cloud cover keeps temps near or just above 60 for the high Sunday.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 400 AM Sunday...Quiet night in store with dry conditions and lows in the mid to upper 50s. While winds lighten over inland ENC, the low offshore paired with the high building in from the north keeps OBX and Inner Banks breezy through the night. Low level cloud cover starts building in from the north and east through the night

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 4 AM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Monday...High pres noses into ENC, while low pres spins well off the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting in from the Atlantic on cont nerly flow, keeping temps cooler than climo, and cont mo cloudy skies. Highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the low/mid 70s inland.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Saturday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30's% at best.
Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 115 PM Sunday.. Much of ENC is under MVFR ceilings as of this update with the OBX being the lone holdout under IFR ceilings as expected. Steady NE'rly winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up around 15-20 kts and MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue through much of the afternoon across ENC with VFR conditions and light winds finally returning to the Coastal Plain by late afternoon with MVFR ceilings returning to the OBX during this timeframe.

As we get into tonight the forecast will become slightly more complicated. Current thinking is that with light NE'rly flow continuing to pump in ample low level moisture from the Atlantic into the FA,this moisture will become trapped underneath a low level inversion allowing ceilings once again lower from NE to SW down to IFR/MVFR levels. How far inland this low stratus gets is still up for debate but highest confidence in low ceilings remain across the OBX with lower confidence as we go further south and west across ENC. In addition to this if the Coastal Plain is less cloudy than currently forecast than there will be a chance for some patchy fog at times mainly after 06Z tonight. Given the lack of confidence in getting fog, left this out of the TAFs for now and capped ceilings at MVFR with a SCT IFR deck at all the terminals given uncertainty with ceilings. Will need to monitor trends in future updates to see how things go tonight. By Mon morning any low ceilings and lowered vis will quickly lift allowing for VFR conditions across much of the area outside the OBX by mid morning at the latest.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon night, as nerly flow cont.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday night/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Gusty NE'rly flow from the low offshore and high building in from the north result in wind gusts near 25 kts and building seas through the short term. Small craft advisories are in place for all waters but the Pamlico River for Sunday into Monday to account for this NE'rly surge. Seas will be at 5-7ft for the coastal waters off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke through the short term, highest in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ137-150.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152-154-156-158.

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Ocracoke
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Sun -- 12:19 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:07 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:52 PM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

Hatteras Inlet
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Sun -- 03:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:23 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:45 PM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina (2), Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,