Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 10:58 PM   Moonset 7:25 AM

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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 310 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Waves light chop. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.

AMZ100 310 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Coastal trough will continue to push inland today as high pressure gradually builds in from the northeast, remaining in control through much of next week. Late in the period, a cold front may attempt to move through the area.

FXUS62 KMHX 272009 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 409 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Coastal trough will continue to push inland tonight as high pressure gradually builds in from the northeast, remaining in control through much of next week. Late in the period, a cold front may attempt to move through the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 400 PM Sat...Upper level ridge continues to build over the eastern seaboard this afternoon, carrying a plume of elevated moisture and associated mid-high level cloud cover. At the surface, weak trough is rotating towards the NC/VA state line, around a surface high centered off the Delmarva Peninsula. The weak convergence associated with this feature aided in a few spotty showers developing along and west of Highway 17, but this activity is expected to quickly weaken as we lose heating tonight. Showers will produce little meaningful precip - under a tenth of an inch.

Cloud cover will gradually erode overnight, but process will be slow as mid-level moisture remains trapped underneath the ridge.
This, in addition to weak moisture advection owing to southerly return flow, points to milder lows in the mid to upper 50s. Some guidance is suggesting some patchy fog could develop mainly south of Highway 70 early Sun morning, but this will be highly dependent on cloud cover. Chance of occurrence is low - less than 20%.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM Sat...Ridge will move little tomorrow, but the surface high shifts south in the late afternoon as a weak cold front pushes out of southeastern Canada and into New England by Sun evening. Dry and predominantly sunny conditions will allow for a prompt return of warmth across the region as highs climb into the low 80s inland, mid 70s along the coast. Southwesterly winds increase along the coast of OBX late tomorrow as pressure gradient tightens between the offshore high and New England front.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 300 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures Monday through Friday

- Thunderstorm risk returns mid to late-week

FORECAST DETAILS

The week will begin with the high pressure that was camped offshore over the weekend beginning to slide southward into a position more consistent with a traditional Bermuda High. This will allow southerly flow to come out of the Caribbean and overspread the southeastern US. This will kick off a period of above normal temperatures with highs reaching the low to mid 80s inland with mid to upper 70s along the coast. Dry weather will prevail through much of the day on Tuesday with a fairly unorganized disturbance beginning to approach from the west with rain chances holding off until overnight Tuesday night.

The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area on Wednesday afternoon and with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. This does not look like a severe threat at this point. Thursday looks drier relative to Wednesday but another slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Despite this moving through the area, temperatures will remain high during this time topping out in the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Friday and Saturday with both the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Models differ in how quickly the front will approach from the west so for now low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the afternoon hours, Friday and Saturday. Temperatures slightly cooler but still well above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Sunday/...
As of 140 PM Sat...Predominantly VFR conditions in place over the terminals this afternoon as mid and high level clouds spill over an upper ridge while high pressure ridges in from the northeast. A subtle surface trough is working its way inland, and low-level convergence is aiding in some very weak and brief shower development along an axis from EWN to DPL. This activity will quickly die off by sunset but may bring a brief period of MVFR conditions to any directly impacted terminal. Probability of this is too low (<10%) to warrant any TEMPO groups this afternoon.

Dry and partly cloudy conditions continue tonight into tomorrow as ridge and high pressure move little. Minority of guidance likes the idea of a brief fog threat, primarily for EWN and OAJ, from 09-12z but doubtful on this given persistent cloud cover.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail under southwesterly winds.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions into early next week, with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching disturbance will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 405 PM Sat...Surface trough is lifting north towards VA, with high pressure gradually building over area waters from the northeast. Regional observations show winds steadily falling, now easterly to southeasterly at 10-15 kt with seas of 3-5 feet area wide. Winds will continue to veer southerly through tonight into Sunday morning as the surface high gradually pushes south, with broad southwesterly flow taking hold by late Sun afternoon. Potential wrinkle in the forecast will be during this period, as guidance shows winds reaching up to 15-20 kt across the Pamlico Sound and northern waters as pressure gradient tightens ahead of a weak cold front dropping out of New England.
If the stronger solutions pan out, a brief period of SCA could develop after 18z Sun. Right now, probabilities are too low (10-20%) to warrant new headlines this afternoon.

Seas will change little through the period, subsiding from the currently observed 3-5 feet to around 3-4 feet by Sunday.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected late-weekend into early next week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure overhead this weekend will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will be very light over the weekend, then will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 06:12 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:49 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:58 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Spooner Creek
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Sat -- 12:16 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:43 PM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,