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FXUS64 KLZK 280745 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

CURRENTLY:

As of 2AM CDT, a MCS or strong to severe squall line of thunderstorms continues to extend across Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas which is approaching the Arkansas border. At the present time, winds of 60-70 mph and isolated QLCS tornadoes continue to occupy this activity as it nears the Arkansas border. A gradual weakening of this activity is forecast to begin over the next couple of hours before the line begins to weaken considerably by daybreak across western Arkansas.

TODAY (SUNDAY):

An upper lvl closed low is positioned over the Central Plains region of the CONUS with an elongated trof that extends over Oklahoma and Arkansas. Within this trof base is a 55 to 65 knot jet axis that will eject through the base of the trof during the day on Sunday.
The right front entrance of this jet axis will be positioned directly over southwestern Arkansas which will promote ascent.

At the sfc, a low pressure center will be positioned across Nebraska which will track northeastward into Iowa during the day with an attendant cold front extending back southward across Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Attached to this cold front in Oklahoma will be a dryline that will extend southward across Oklahoma and Texas just east of the I-35 corridor. The aforementioned sfc features in place will open up a broad warm sector with a moisture-rich and warm parameter space that will favor an unstable atmosphere. Current model trends have dewpoint temperatures progged in the mid to upper 60s over the entire state of Arkansas with temperatures Sunday afternoon in the low 70s to mid 80s across the state.

Although a squall line of showers and thunderstorm activity will be ongoing during the early morning hours across western Arkansas, this MCS overall is expected to quickly weaken and fall apart after day break with strong southerly winds advecting moisture and warm temperatures back into the state via Louisiana and creating a parameter space that will be re-destabilized and present an enhanced risk of severe weather over western Arkansas. Redevelopment of thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening in far eastern Oklahoma to far western Arkansas which all storm modes will be possible from discrete supercells, clusters of convection, and eventually a linear mode of storms that will sweep eastward across the state Arkansas.

The enhanced parameter space overall will favor all modes of severe weather with all necessary ingredients in place for each hazard: damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70+ mph, large hail to the size of golf balls with the possibility of some larger hailstones, and a few tornadoes including a couple that may become strong (especially across southwestern Arkansas).

A secondary threat of severe weather often forgotten about will be the possibility of flash flooding as portions of the state may see an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with a few isolated areas experiencing more than 4 inches of rainfall.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT:

The cold front will make partial progress into the state of Arkansas during the day on Monday and rain will end from west to east across the state throughout the day. Expect a few areas of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day will all rain ending by late Tuesday night across the entire CWA

Temperatures over the short-term forecast period will be slightly warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year with respect to both low and high temperatures.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Perturbed upper flow wl be in place acrs the Cntrl US early in the PD, w/ a deepening trof extending acrs the N/Wrn US and Nrn periphery of the Cont Divide. Locally, a stagnant warm and moist airmass wl be in place acrs the Mid-South and greater extent of the FA, w/ a stationary frnt positioned from W to E acrs the AR/MO border region, demarcating cooler and drier air acrs Srn MO. Upper level flow is set to weaken as ridging builds over the Srn Cntrl US, and the stronger polar jet recedes Nwrd towards the US/Canada border. Rain chances on Tues wl be largely diurnal isolated in nature.

Wed thru Thurs, the aforementioned Pac-N/W upper low wl begin to move Ewrd acrs the Cont Divide, and dig further S/Wrd into the Srn Plains, w/ mean S/Wrly H500 flow overspreading the Srn Cntrl US. A broad region of lee cyclonic sfc flow is set to develop under the approaching trof. Stronger low-lvl ascent invof the developing sfc low, and broad WAA/isentropic ascent wl drive more widespread PoPs Wed and Thurs, including scattered thunderstorms.

Late in the PD, Fri, long range guidance remains indicative of the trailing cdfrnt, asctd w/ the deepening sfc low, moving thru the Plains and approaching the FA, sometime Fri mrng to aftn.
Uncertainties remain on timing and evolution of the frnt for now, however, another round of scattered to widespread thunderstorms along and ahead of the frnt wl be possible Fri into Sat if fcst patterns cont to remain consistent. In the wake of the cdfrnt, sfc high pressure wl settle over the region heading into the weekend, and drier condns should prevail.

Expect warm and muggy condns thru most of the long term PD, w/ daily high and low temps residing above normal values. Late in the PD, towards next weekend, cooler and less humid condns are currently fcst, as a cdfrnt is progged to move thru the FA.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

All sites will begin the forecast period in VFR flight category.
Expect surface wind gusts at all sites in excess of 25 knots through the entire day on Sunday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the terminals of KHRO, KBPK, KLIT, KHOT, KADF, and KPBF beginning Sunday morning and lasting throughout the day. CIGS and VSBY during this period will drop to as low as MVFR for CIGS and IFR for VSBY, especially within stronger thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 79 63 76 59 / 60 100 70 10 Camden AR 82 63 78 59 / 50 100 70 10 Harrison AR 74 57 77 55 / 90 90 10 0 Hot Springs AR 79 62 80 60 / 80 100 40 10 Little Rock AR 81 66 79 62 / 50 90 60 10 Monticello AR 84 67 75 62 / 30 80 90 20 Mount Ida AR 79 60 81 57 / 90 100 30 0 Mountain Home AR 76 59 78 55 / 80 100 20 0 Newport AR 81 64 73 60 / 40 90 80 10 Pine Bluff AR 82 65 75 61 / 40 90 90 10 Russellville AR 78 61 80 58 / 80 100 20 0 Searcy AR 79 63 75 58 / 50 90 70 10 Stuttgart AR 81 65 73 62 / 40 90 90 20

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday morning for ARZ004-005-014-024-031-032-039-042>044-052>055-062-063- 066>068-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

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