Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:35 PM   Moonset 3:08 AM

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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 529 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Today - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves light chop. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Wed - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 529 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Breezy northeasterly winds early this week with a high pressure ridging from our north and low pressure offshore. Mostly dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

FXUS62 KMHX 200830 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 430 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 400 AM Monday...High pressure ridging extends S'wards to our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east.
Continued NE'rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon.

Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% PoPs in place through the near term. OBX will see NE'rly gusts of 25-30mph late this morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening.

Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s inland where there are more breaks in the clouds.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 400 AM Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for OBX.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 430 AM Mon...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west at the end of the week bringing chances for unsettled weather.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may reach or exceed 90 by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops capped 30% on Fri, and perhaps slightly better chances Sat at 40%. Followed closer to convective climatology this far out, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to evening time periods, with very small shower chances overnight through the noon period. Hottest day of the week appears Fri, where highs around 90 or even a tick higher are possible interior, with 70s to around 80 beaches.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 130 AM Monday...A narrow band of low stratus (IFR to MVFR ceilings) is moving through the region, currently near KISO and KOAJ. VFR conditions continue behind this line of stratus, with a low fog threat just before sunrise this morning. Probs are too low to put in the TAFs, with highest chances closer to I-95.
More widespread low stratus moves in with NE flow from NOBX early this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how far west this cloud deck moves. Most likely outcome is BKN/OVC deck east of hwy 17, away from the TAF terminals. This deck will persist through much of the day before decreasing in coverage in the afternoon/evening Monday. Currently have SCT007 deck in TAFs to cover the uncertainty. More substantial fog threat possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the potential for IFR visibilities.

LONG TERM /Tue through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions are expected through much of the week. Exception may be early Tue, when MVFR or lower stratus and/or fog possible in the morning hours with light onshore flow. Next chance of thundershowers not until Friday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 415 AM Monday...Riding over central ENC and the coastal plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE'rly breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25 kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA's linger due to the potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA for waters currently without a hazard.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Mon...Good boating cond this week as high pres dominates. Nerly breezes on Tue become srly on Wed as high pres eases offshore. Winds will remain light (5-15 kt) through the end of the week, with seas remaining below 5 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Mon -- 01:44 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:36 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Ocracoke
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Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:26 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:31 PM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,