Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 1:52 AM   Moonset 12:01 PM

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FXUS64 KOUN 011110 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 610 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across northern into central Oklahoma early this morning as low-level jet maintains warm advection atop a southward sinking outflow boundary. The current expectation is that convection will tend to wane through the morning as forcing weakens. The effect, if any, this outflow boundary may have on convective development later today is not entirely clear, but the current expectation is that outflow will wash out through the day with the main focus for convection being the dryline just to the west of our area by late afternoon.

The environment ahead of the dryline will be fairly similar to yesterday, with moderate to strong instability but rather modest bulk shear values around 30-35 kts. As we saw yesterday, this should still be sufficient for supercell development with all severe hazards possible. Storm coverage will likely be greater today out west as a weak shortwave provides more background ascent, with convection expected to develop upscale into clusters or line segments during the evening and progress eastward across the area. The severe threat appears to diminish with eastward extent as instability wanes later into the evening and overnight period.

Ware

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

By Thursday a cold front is expected to progress south and eastward across the area. With an unstable airmass in place ahead of the boundary, strong to severe storms will be possible once again. The front will clear the area Thursday night but will quickly return northward during the day on Friday, bringing renewed chances for at least scattered thunderstorm development. Models are also now showing a second cold front moving into northern and western Oklahoma very late Friday night, with a complex of storms possible here.

Storm chances then continue Saturday and Sunday as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place and at least modest southwesterly flow is maintained aloft. There is some signal for a potentially more significant trough ejection into the plains on Monday, but models disagree on timing and location of any attendant severe risk at this range.

Ware

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Lingering showers and storms may impact PNC/SWO/OKC/OUN for next couple of hours. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will be prevalent this morning before rising to VFR around 16Z. Gusty south winds will occur again today with a chance of another round of storms late today and tonight across the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 81 64 78 59 / 40 40 80 40 Hobart OK 83 61 82 57 / 40 60 40 30 Wichita Falls TX 82 64 83 62 / 30 60 50 40 Gage OK 88 58 78 49 / 40 30 30 20 Ponca City OK 80 64 76 55 / 80 40 90 40 Durant OK 84 65 79 64 / 20 70 80 60

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ007-008-012-013.

TX...None.

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