Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 3:31 AM   Moonset 3:38 PM

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FXUS64 KOUN 042338 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 638 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move across portions of western north Texas and southern Oklahoma tonight into early Sunday morning. There could also be additional storms that form along a stalled cold front along and south of I-44 this evening.
In both of these scenarios, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Given training storms overnight and PWAT values between 1.25 and 1.5 inches across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, there are flooding concerns in the aforementioned areas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow morning, moving eastward and out of the area by the afternoon.

Bunker

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Monday: Severe weather, potentially significant severe storms, are expected Monday afternoon and evening as a negatively-tilted mid- level trough moves across the Plains Monday afternoon. There still is uncertainty in regards to the overall setup, however. For example, there is disagreement in the location of the dryline, magnitude of capping, and when height falls are forecast to overspread western Oklahoma between the ensembles. Nevertheless, the open warm sector will be characterized by sufficient instability owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, curved and long hodographs, and plenty of orthogonally-oriented deep-layer shear relative to the dryline. All of these thermodynamic and kinematic profiles could support very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few strong tornadoes. Confidence in the overall evolution will get better the closer to the event.

Tuesday: Could see a lull in activity Tuesday as the main wave moves off to the east.

Wednesday: A cold front will move in Wednesday morning and will make it to southeastern Oklahoma by the afternoon. Dewpoints ahead of the cold front are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. A shortwave will round the base of the main mid-level trough, and will move across the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this boundary in the afternoon and evening timeframe. Given the shear and instability, a few severe storms are possible as well across the southeastern portions of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Through the rest of the week, it seems as though for now we will see a lull in thunderstorm activity.

Bunker

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Widespread MVFR conditions expected to return this evening, along with widespread SHRA/TSRA spreading from southwest to northeast.
Most of the stronger TSRA will be confined to terminals KSPS eastward to KDUA overnight. More scattered TSRA expected to progress northward through southwest and central Oklahoma north of stalling cold front. IFR conditions likely toward and after 10Z many terminals with slowly lifting cigs through the day tomorrow with moist east and southeast flow prevailing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 58 71 61 79 / 90 80 10 50 Hobart OK 56 73 61 84 / 90 40 20 40 Wichita Falls TX 61 76 64 84 / 100 50 10 30 Gage OK 51 73 57 87 / 60 40 10 30 Ponca City OK 54 70 59 80 / 70 80 20 60 Durant OK 64 75 64 81 / 90 80 10 30

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013- 018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

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