Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boys Ranch, TX
May 20, 2024 12:15 AM CDT (05:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:37 AM Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 5:22 PM Moonset 3:51 AM |
FXUS64 KAMA 192348 AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 648 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New AVIATION
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...Issued at 1:35 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Another conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is present today for northeastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The upper level ridge has flatten out over our area, and will allow for a shortwave surface trough to move in from the west this afternoon.
Concerns about moisture quality and dryline placement are in place today, but if the right conditions are met a very unstable environment exists and will promote thunderstorms to become strongly severe.
Mesoscale parameters...
As of late this morning, a pocket of dry air has already moved into the southwestern quadrant of the CWA Areas near Hereford, Vega, and even Amarillo have had their surface dewpoints plummet to the upper 30's and some lower 40's. Surrounding areas to the north and east have still retained moisture up to this point, so dewpoint temperatures reside in the upper 50's and lower 60's.
Later this afternoon, a dryline should materialize with a west- to-east gradient and advance eastward. How quickly this occurs has been a point of contention, since many of the CAMs and 12Z guidance suggest the dryline should quickly mix east, and disallow storm from growing upscale in our area. However, the 12Z NAM products still favor a slower moving dryline and suggest storms will become severe in our CWA before they move into western Oklahoma and Kansas. Given that the current spread of dewpoint values are higher than most of the guidance, a slightly slower dryline progression is anticipated for today. This would permit storms to initiate in our two eastern stacks of counties (Beaver to Donley and eastward). Based off of model 0-6 km Theta-E moisture profiles, better quality moisture will be available in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Though storm initiation seems more probable here than what the models convey, they may be slower to fully mature and become severe if subsidence still prevails aloft.
Environment and hazards...
Should the full potential of our mesoscale parameters be realized, a favorable environment exists for powerful severe thunderstorms. This is especially true for the far northeast Panhandles where the higher end instability and shear is placed.
Based off of LAPS data and surface observation mesoanalysis, SBCAPE values range between 2,500- 3,500 J/kg, with MLCAPE ranging between 1,500-2,500 J/kg. Large inverted V model soundings show DCAPE around 1,600 J/kg. Steep lapse rates approaching 9 C/km, and 0-6 km bulk shear between 35-40 kts are also at play today. With wind direction generally veering with height, a discrete to semi- discrete storm mode is expected today. And provided such a large disparity between surface temperatures and dewpoints, LCL heights will be quite tall and high based storms are expected. The primary hazard today will be powerful straight winds up to 80 mph and dry microburst are possible. Large hail is also of concern today given the very unstable air and good bulk shear. However, the temperatures at the surface and aloft are quite warm for this time of year, so the freezing level is much higher for any storm that forms. Even so, 2 inch hailstones or larger cannot be ruled out.
The tornado threat for today is also low considering the high LCLs and only modest low level shear. But if the triple point forms further south, and with higher terrain in place, a tornado or two is not impossible. Landspouts may also form today with any boundary convergence, but they will have the same limiting factors as a mesocyclonic tornado will have. In addition, 3CAPE and enhanced stretching potential values are below the recommended criteria for non-supercellular tornadoes.
Rangel
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the northeast Panhandles through 10 PM this evening.
Afternoon showers and storms will be possible today. See the Mesoscale Update above for details regarding today's severe potential. Tonight, the dryline will attempt to retreat to the east, but another surface low is expected to track across the Panhandles and hold it in place. Tomorrow, we'll still have warm southwest flow aloft over the Panhandles and with another lee surface low setting up in southeast CO we can expect very dry conditions with RH values in the 5 to 10 percent range. Winds expected to be in the 15-25 mph range, which will support elevated to maybe some brief critical Fire Weather conditions.
Mild overnight lows on Monday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Tuesday will be similar to Monday as we'll still be under Southwest flow, but there will be a weak frontal system from the upper trough that's expected to push through. Overall, the main front is expected to come overnight Tuesday night and will cool the Panhandles down into the 80s on Wednesday. Given that the trough is pretty quick to eject to the northeast as another upper trough swings down front he Pacific Northwest, we can expect Thursday to be under a more zonal to southwest flow, with a potential dryline setup again in the eastern Panhandles. Models area back and forth regarding where storms would initiate on Thursday, but the potential is still there for the eastern Panhandles. While confidence is low, if storms develop they have a decent chance to be severe, but again it's still uncertain if things will even materialize in our area this far out. Upper trough axis is still well displaced to the north and quickly exits to the east with zonal flow returning on Friday and Saturday leaving the area with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Possible shortwave that could trigger another round of storms in the extended, but no confidence at this time for the forecast.
Weber
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
For the 00Z TAFs, some potential exists for a brief period of MVFR clouds at KGUY late tonight into Monday morning. However, confidence is low on any MVFR cig development at KGUY so have opted for only inserting a SCT deck for this issuance. VFR conditions are expected at KDHT and KAMA through late Monday afternoon.
02
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 59 100 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 57 99 62 92 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 54 93 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 60 103 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 55 100 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 56 99 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 60 98 64 91 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 53 94 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 53 96 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 56 101 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 60 97 64 93 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 60 100 64 91 / 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 60 98 65 93 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 60 98 66 96 / 10 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 648 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New AVIATION
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...Issued at 1:35 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Another conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is present today for northeastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The upper level ridge has flatten out over our area, and will allow for a shortwave surface trough to move in from the west this afternoon.
Concerns about moisture quality and dryline placement are in place today, but if the right conditions are met a very unstable environment exists and will promote thunderstorms to become strongly severe.
Mesoscale parameters...
As of late this morning, a pocket of dry air has already moved into the southwestern quadrant of the CWA Areas near Hereford, Vega, and even Amarillo have had their surface dewpoints plummet to the upper 30's and some lower 40's. Surrounding areas to the north and east have still retained moisture up to this point, so dewpoint temperatures reside in the upper 50's and lower 60's.
Later this afternoon, a dryline should materialize with a west- to-east gradient and advance eastward. How quickly this occurs has been a point of contention, since many of the CAMs and 12Z guidance suggest the dryline should quickly mix east, and disallow storm from growing upscale in our area. However, the 12Z NAM products still favor a slower moving dryline and suggest storms will become severe in our CWA before they move into western Oklahoma and Kansas. Given that the current spread of dewpoint values are higher than most of the guidance, a slightly slower dryline progression is anticipated for today. This would permit storms to initiate in our two eastern stacks of counties (Beaver to Donley and eastward). Based off of model 0-6 km Theta-E moisture profiles, better quality moisture will be available in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Though storm initiation seems more probable here than what the models convey, they may be slower to fully mature and become severe if subsidence still prevails aloft.
Environment and hazards...
Should the full potential of our mesoscale parameters be realized, a favorable environment exists for powerful severe thunderstorms. This is especially true for the far northeast Panhandles where the higher end instability and shear is placed.
Based off of LAPS data and surface observation mesoanalysis, SBCAPE values range between 2,500- 3,500 J/kg, with MLCAPE ranging between 1,500-2,500 J/kg. Large inverted V model soundings show DCAPE around 1,600 J/kg. Steep lapse rates approaching 9 C/km, and 0-6 km bulk shear between 35-40 kts are also at play today. With wind direction generally veering with height, a discrete to semi- discrete storm mode is expected today. And provided such a large disparity between surface temperatures and dewpoints, LCL heights will be quite tall and high based storms are expected. The primary hazard today will be powerful straight winds up to 80 mph and dry microburst are possible. Large hail is also of concern today given the very unstable air and good bulk shear. However, the temperatures at the surface and aloft are quite warm for this time of year, so the freezing level is much higher for any storm that forms. Even so, 2 inch hailstones or larger cannot be ruled out.
The tornado threat for today is also low considering the high LCLs and only modest low level shear. But if the triple point forms further south, and with higher terrain in place, a tornado or two is not impossible. Landspouts may also form today with any boundary convergence, but they will have the same limiting factors as a mesocyclonic tornado will have. In addition, 3CAPE and enhanced stretching potential values are below the recommended criteria for non-supercellular tornadoes.
Rangel
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the northeast Panhandles through 10 PM this evening.
Afternoon showers and storms will be possible today. See the Mesoscale Update above for details regarding today's severe potential. Tonight, the dryline will attempt to retreat to the east, but another surface low is expected to track across the Panhandles and hold it in place. Tomorrow, we'll still have warm southwest flow aloft over the Panhandles and with another lee surface low setting up in southeast CO we can expect very dry conditions with RH values in the 5 to 10 percent range. Winds expected to be in the 15-25 mph range, which will support elevated to maybe some brief critical Fire Weather conditions.
Mild overnight lows on Monday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Tuesday will be similar to Monday as we'll still be under Southwest flow, but there will be a weak frontal system from the upper trough that's expected to push through. Overall, the main front is expected to come overnight Tuesday night and will cool the Panhandles down into the 80s on Wednesday. Given that the trough is pretty quick to eject to the northeast as another upper trough swings down front he Pacific Northwest, we can expect Thursday to be under a more zonal to southwest flow, with a potential dryline setup again in the eastern Panhandles. Models area back and forth regarding where storms would initiate on Thursday, but the potential is still there for the eastern Panhandles. While confidence is low, if storms develop they have a decent chance to be severe, but again it's still uncertain if things will even materialize in our area this far out. Upper trough axis is still well displaced to the north and quickly exits to the east with zonal flow returning on Friday and Saturday leaving the area with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Possible shortwave that could trigger another round of storms in the extended, but no confidence at this time for the forecast.
Weber
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
For the 00Z TAFs, some potential exists for a brief period of MVFR clouds at KGUY late tonight into Monday morning. However, confidence is low on any MVFR cig development at KGUY so have opted for only inserting a SCT deck for this issuance. VFR conditions are expected at KDHT and KAMA through late Monday afternoon.
02
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 59 100 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 57 99 62 92 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 54 93 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 60 103 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 55 100 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 56 99 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 60 98 64 91 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 53 94 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 53 96 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 56 101 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 60 97 64 93 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 60 100 64 91 / 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 60 98 65 93 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 60 98 66 96 / 10 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDUX MOORE COUNTY,TX | 20 sm | 20 min | W 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 28°F | 21% | 29.78 |
Amarillo, TX,
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