Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Garner, NC

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:03PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:42 PM EDT (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:52PMMoonset 1:15PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garner, NC
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location: 35.6, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 281407 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1005 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Warm high pressure across the Southeast will shift offshore today. A cold front across the mid-Atlantic this morning will move across the Carolinas tonight and early Wednesday. Cool high pressure will build into the area on Wednesday through the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1005 AM Tuesday .

Still looks to be a warm day with plenty of sunshine. The band of broken mid and high clouds to our NW is on pace to track SE and SSE through central NC through this afternoon, leading to a couple of hours of partly sunny skies as it passes by. But otherwise, dry/stable/warm air persists below 600 mb noted on soundings in the vicinity and just upstream, so much of the day will be sunny to mostly sunny. Moisture is deeper from N WV across S and E PA into the Northeast ahead of and with the incoming backdoor front and potent mid level shortwave trough, with PWs near or above normal there, versus values near to below normal over our area. As this better moisture and stronger forcing for ascent (including mid level DPVA and focused upper divergence in the LFQ of the diving upper jet) drops ESE through tonight, the western reaches of this area are still poised to scrape our NE sections. While the latest model runs continue to keep precip just to our NE, it's within the margin of error that a storm or two (with any convection supported in part by elevated CAPE with good mid level lapse rates up to 7.5-8.0 C/km) could drop through our far NE such as Warren/Halifax/Edgecombe/N Nash counties, and the lower level dry air should bolster DCAPE values. Will keep a dry forecast there for now, given the scant moisture, but will be watching trends closely for the need to include a mention of isolated thunder there tonight. After an almost 15 m rise yesterday, low level thicknesses came in this morning almost 20 m above Mon morning readings, so with temps already near or above 70F in many spots, highs of 83-90 look attainable. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 330 AM: Latest surface analysis shows a 1019 mb surface high centered across coastal Georgia. A cold front extended from northern New England southwest to the northern Ohio Valley. The upper level flow across the mid Atlantic was diffuse ahead of an southeastern advancing upper level trough moving across the eastern Great Lakes.

The upper level trough will advance southeast today and move offshore this evening and amplify with time with decent height falls noted across the mid Atlantic. A Piedmont trough will develop across VA and the Carolinas this afternoon as the cold front reaches the northern Chesapeake Bay by sunset and then into central NC by daybreak Tuesday. The air mass ahead of the front in central NC will warmer today than Monday with low level thickness values about 12 to 16m higher. Relatively modest and somewhat dry mid level flow atop a light southwesterly flow will limit moisture transport into the area. By late afternoon, PW values will range around 1.0 to 1.25 inches with a rather dry boundary layer highlighted by afternoon surface dew points in the lower 60s. With limited moisture arriving with the front this evening, rain chances will be limited and PoPs will be excluded from the forecast. Further north, there is better moisture and forcing for ascent, so scattered convection is apt to develop across VA during the late afternoon and advance into southeastern and southern VA during the evening. Convection allowing models keep this activity outside of the RAH CWA with the closest approach and time period with the greatest but still quite limited chance of storms brushing the northern Coastal Plain near Roanoke Rapids from 9pm to 1am. Given the low probabilities will keep the forecast dry but we will need to monitor this. Given the dry soundings, higher based convection with high DCAPE values and steep mid level lapse rates to our north, strong to severe storms are possible in VA, if this convection was able to over perform and sustain itself, it could pose a threat for the northern Coastal Plain. For now, this appears to be a limited threat.

The air mass across central NC will be warmer than the past several days with morning lo level thickness values in the 1395 to 1400m range, supporting highs ranging in the lower 80s near the VA border and Triad, mid 80s in most locations, including the Triangle and the upper 80s across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Very little cold advection will arrive by daybreak, so lows tonight will range 3 to 9 degrees above normal, in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. -Blaes

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 320 AM Tuesday .

The cold frontal passage early on Wednesday will bring in lower 1000- 850 mb thicknesses under northeasterly surface winds. While the passage of the front is expected to remain dry, forecast model soundings are showing development of afternoon fair weather cumulus with daytime heating. Highs should range from the upper 70s in the northeast to the middle 80s in the south and west. With weak high pressure settling into the northern Great Lakes, along with lower thicknesses, overnight lows Wednesday night should be a few degrees cooler than Tuesday night in the middle to upper 50s.

The closed mid-level low pressure system over far southeastern Canada and west of Maine on Wednesday will rotate and move into southeastern Maine by Thursday afternoon. Several weak shortwaves will rotate around this trough, the most impactful one being during the day on Thursday. The GFS/NAM keep most of the shortwave north and east of central NC, while the ECMWF is further west. Regardless of the exact solution, the GFS does show some weak low-level isentropic ascent over the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain in the morning and early afternoon on Thursday, which is also evident in forecast soundings. Thus, have continued a slight chance of showers during the day in these locations, even though lift is weak. Highs on Thursday a few degrees cooler and closer to average in the upper 70s/low 80s, again lowest over the north. The mid-level trough over the northeast is forecast to lift east of the Carolinas by early Friday, resulting in rising mid-level heights and surface high pressure to settle over central Pennsylvania. Overnight lows Thursday night to be in the mid to upper 50s in the south and lower 50s in the north.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 400 AM Tuesday .

On Friday and Saturday, the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement on the track and placement of the mid/upper low, which looks to stall near or just NE of Maine, before finally lifting to the NE on Sunday. As this happens, the trough over the East Coast will be replaced by a ridge building in across the Southeast US. At the surface, the backdoor front will remain near our southern zones on Friday, before it looks to lift north through central NC as a warm front on Saturday. Overall the ECMWF has sped up with the exit of the trough off the East Coast, but its pattern remains more amplified compared to the GFS. Thus the ECMWF has a stronger ridge and is dry through almost the entire extended period. Meanwhile the GFS has a flatter ridge and is more progressive, with a few vort maxes moving through the area, with the potential to generate some light precipitation or at least some clouds from Friday through the weekend. However, with dry NW flow aloft, very little support from the ECMWF or its ensembles, and even most GFS ensembles remaining dry, opted to keep POPs just below slight on Friday and Saturday. Precipitation chances on Sunday may be a bit better as PW values start to increase.

By Monday, a low pressure system somewhere over the Great Lakes or Midwest will drag a cold front towards our region. Thus have slight to low chance POPs on Monday, highest NW. Not surprisingly given their respective tendencies, the GFS is faster with this system compared to the ECMWF, and confidence on details this far out is low.

It looks like there may still be a decent gradient in temperatures across central NC on Friday, with forecast highs ranging from lower- 70s in the NE to lower-80s in the SW. These will depend on the exact placement of the front and how quickly the mid/upper trough exits the area, but confidence is a bit better as differences between the GFS and ECMWF are not as great as they had been. By Saturday through Monday as the front lifts north and the flow turns southerly, temperatures will warm, with forecast highs ranging from upper-70s north to mid-80s south and lows upper-50s to lower-60s (slightly above average). The ECMWF solution would mean a stronger ridge and less clouds, yielding warmer temperatures compared to the GFS.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 620 AM Tuesday .

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected across central NC through the 24 hour TAF period with just a couple of exceptions. Some localized fog may develop through around daybreak and then dissipate. In addition, an approaching cold front will trigger some scattered showers or storms across southern and southeastern VA late this afternoon that could skirt the northeastern portions of central NC this evening. Probabilities are limited and will not include a mention in the KRWI terminal at this time. Very light, mainly southwesterly winds this morning will become light southwest this morning and will shift to north behind the front late tonight.

Outlook: The cold front will move across southern NC early Wednesday morning and then offshore. A rogue shower or storm may still threaten northeast sections late tonight. Fair weather with mainly VFR conditions are expected for Wednesday through Friday as high pressure builds into the area. A limited chance of a shower arrives for Friday night into Saturday. -Blaes

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Blaes NEAR TERM . Hartfield/Blaes SHORT TERM . AK LONG TERM . Danco AVIATION . Blaes


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC14 mi48 minSW 510.00 miFair81°F63°F54%1016.3 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC16 mi48 minSW 910.00 miFair80°F62°F54%1016.6 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC21 mi52 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F63°F53%1015.8 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC24 mi48 minSW 510.00 miFair76°F63°F63%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJNX

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Last 24hrSW5SW5SW3S6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3W7
1 day agoNW3W4N3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4
2 days agoNW4CalmCalmN4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Tue -- 04:00 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:46 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:32 PM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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0.90.70.50.40.30.40.711.11.21.21.10.80.50.30.20.20.30.611.31.41.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Tue -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:32 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:58 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 11:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.611.31.51.61.51.310.60.40.30.30.511.41.71.81.81.61.410.8

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