Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 3:14 AM   Moonset 3:19 PM

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FXUS62 KRAH 042017 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 417 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the area through Sunday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will stall across the area through tonight, before lifting north into Virginia early Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 235 PM Saturday...

Latest sfc analysis this afternoon depicts the synoptic front stretching from just north of KRWI, west-northwest just through to the south of KINT/KGSO. Those in the far western Piedmont are largely under the influence of rain-cooled outflow, with primarily lingering stratiform rain. Further east in the warm sector, scattered showers and a few storms continue to stream north across the southern Piedmont/Sandhills regions. Additional scattered showers and storms have developed further south across south-central SC heading northward towards our southern Piedmont.

Aloft, a stronger MCV continues to spiral over northern GA. This feature will migrate through our southern and western Piedmont later tonight. As such, additional showers and storms will continue into the overnight period, with highest chances continuing for those west of US-1. Showers and storms will continue to be slow-moving, and given the chance for some training, along with an anomalous moisture profile to tap into, sudden bursts of up to 1 to 1.5 inches will be possible with any heavier downpour. As such, isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible through Sunday morning (WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall generally for those west of US-1). However, shear will remain weak through the period, and thus severe thunderstorm chances are low tonight.

It's not as clear if locations along the NC/VA border will see any re-development of storms tonight. Forecast soundings highlight some fleeting stability, but given the approach of the wave aloft, would not be surprised if some thunder is heard even that far north.

Warm overnight lows in the mid 60s is expected.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 215 PM Saturday...

Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will shift offshore and breakdown Sun/Sun night as the increasingly sheared shortwave disturbance moves through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Another southern stream s/w will strengthen over the southern Plains on Sun, then move eastward into the lower/mid-MS Valley through Sun night. At the surface, high pressure will move off the New England coast and eastward over the northern Atlantic as a low moves through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Sun/Sun night. An attendant cold front draped swwd from the low will become more W-E oriented through the OH Valley by Sun night. Meanwhile over central NC, the quasi- stationary front that had lingered over the area will lift northward as a warm front, with warm, moist southerly return flow over the are in its wake.

Precipitation/Convection: Showers and storms will likely still be ongoing Sun morning, most prevalent over the Piedmont. PWATs will remain anomalously high, in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, through the afternoon. Surface-based instability should increase with daytime heating, although the latter may be somewhat inhibited by the ongoing convection and extensive cloud cover. Bulk shear is also expected to be weak again on Sun. As a result, slow-moving, widely scattered showers and storms will be possible through the aft/eve Sun, with the main threat of some isolated heavy rainfall and localized flooding, although most locations may only receive a few hundredths of an inch of rain.

Temperatures: Widespread overcast skies and ongoing convection should somewhat limit heating early, but temps could recover during the afternoon. For now expect highs to range from the mid 70s along the NC/VA border to around 80 degrees SE. Lows Sun night mainly in the low to mid 60s expected.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 415 PM Saturday...

The extended forecast will feature a continued chance of unsettled weather to start the week Mon, followed by somewhat drier and hot temperatures by the middle of the week. Energetic wswly flow aloft will increase shower/storm chances again mid-late week, followed by milder, stable, and less humid conditions by Sat.

The models remain in relatively good agreement regarding a srn stream shortwave trough forecast to pivot across the TN Valley and srn Appalachians Monday and srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas Monday night-early Tuesday, during which time above average chances of showers/storms will result over cntl NC. Shortwave ridging will follow and migrate across and offshore the South Atlantic with drier conditions favored Tue-Wed. Associated subsidence, on the wrn periphery of sub-tropical high pressure that will extend across the swrn N. Atlantic, will also result in unseasonably hot and humid conditions extending over cntl NC Wed-Thu. Increasingly-energetic wswly flow, and at or above climatological chances of convection, will otherwise prevail across the Southeast, within closely-spaced srn and nrn stream branches of the westerlies, through early next weekend. An associated synoptic cold front will move across cntl NC Fri or Sat.

While the models are in relatively good agreement regarding the pattern described above, they also depict the development of a couple of rex blocks over n-cntl NOAM during the middle of the week and over wrn NOAM late week into next weekend. With those blocking developments in mind, model guidance may trend slower with the progression of the cold front and following milder and more stable conditions by early next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 127 PM Saturday...

Under anomalously moist conditions, LIFR ceilings persist at KINT/KGSO this afternoon. Elsewhere, terminals have largely scattered to VFR with some clearing of the cloud shield. Scattered showers and a few storms will continue to stream from south to north through early Sunday morning. If any heavier cells interact with our terminals, brief periods of gustiness and sub-VFR conditions are likely. As we progress into early Sunday, additional scattered showers and a few isolated storms will be possible as well. LIFR to IFR ceilings are then likely to sock back in across central NC starting around 03Z and persisting through early to mid Sunday morning.

Outlook: MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely to sock back in Sunday and monday night with additional scattered showers/storms possible.
Drier conditions are expected mid-week.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Bannermans Branch
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:33 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:59 PM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:24 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:45 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:50 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:17 PM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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