Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moncure, NC

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 8:03 PM EST (01:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:38AMMoonset 2:43PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moncure, NC
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location: 35.63, -79.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 302320 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 620 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure over the Southeast states will move off the coast by Wednesday. A series of upper level disturbances will move southeast across the mid Atlantic region late Wednesday into Thursday, as surface high pressure persists to the south.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 245 PM Tuesday .

Forecast is on track with another quiet night ahead to close out November. The surface high centered over the eastern Gulf Coast and FL panhandle will continue to slide eastward through tonight, as the weakening lee trough holds in place over the western portion of the CWA. A mid level wave now moving from WY/MT into the Dakotas/NE will continue diving SE and absorb the smaller wave now over KS/MO, causing a flattening of the fast NW flow in the mid-upper levels over NC overnight and an increase in high clouds late, esp over our NW sections. Despite the winds becoming light tonight and the lack of clouds over the forecast area for most of the night, the higher dewpoints advecting in will keep temps from getting as chilly as they did last night. Lows 30-38 expected. -GIH

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 255 PM Tuesday .

The surface high center will continue moving offshore, with a weakening ridge extending back across N FL and the N Gulf Wed. The aforementioned merged mid level shortwave trough will be roughly over the Miss Valley early Wed, then track ESE, crossing the Carolinas Wed evening and night. We'll continue to see increasing and thickening clouds with bases lowering through the mid levels Wed, peaking in coverage and opacity late Wed evening into the early overnight hours. Clouds will then exit with the wave late Wed night. Low level SW flow will persist during this period, but with the low level ridge axis cutting off any opportunity for significant low level moisture advection into our area, the lowest 2 km will remain too dry for any precip, despite the forcing for ascent aloft. Expect highs generally in the 60s, with above normal thicknesses tempered by the increase in clouds. Mild lows Wed night in the upper 30s to mid 40s with skies clearing out W to E toward daybreak. -GIH

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 240 PM Tuesday .

Mainly dry with above normal temperatures through the rest of the week and into the weekend. There is the possibility for rain early next week but better chance is beyond the current forecast period.

Thursday and Friday: Aloft, a departing shortwave will lift away from the area on Thursday while a secondary, weaker disturbance will clip the area Thursday eve/night. While the upper level flow will be split out west (western US) the flow aloft over the mid-Atlantic will be primarily NW Thu night and Friday, slowly backing to more westerly Fri night as a southern stream disturbance approaches from the west. At the surface, as a strong low over Ontario/Quebec migrates eastward, the associated trough will set up over and move through the area while the attendant dry cold front sinks south- southeast into NC Thu night/Fri. A transient high will quickly move through the mid-Atlantic in the wake of the front late Fri/Fri night. There are still some differences between the various model solutions with respect to the front but general consensus across central NC is for highest temperatures SW and lowest temperatures NE Fri/Fri night. Regardless of that fact, temperatures will still be well above normal, moderating some from Thu to Fri (though in the NE there may be little difference in highs and lows may be a tad lower). Dry weather will persist.

Saturday onward: There are still a lot of differences between the medium-range models, which is resulting in continued low confidence in the forecast for this period.

Aloft, expect the aforementioned southern stream disturbance to the west to lift east-northeast int the region through Sunday. A northern stream s/w will dive southeast into the northern Rockies/Plains from Canada Sat night/Sun while a cutoff low in the southern stream sits over the Baja. The leading southern stream s/w will continue lifting through the region Sun night, while the approaching northern stream s/w moving through the Great Lakes will amplify the upper trough over the eastern US through Sun night. The s/w will quickly move through the Great Lakes/OH Valley and then the northern mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Sun night and Monday.

At the surface, High pressure will sit over Bermuda, ridging westward into the Southeast US through Sat night. Meanwhile, a moderately strong high will move eastward along the US/Canada border Sat night and Sun (peaking at ~1030 mb over the Northeast US and southeast Canada). This high is expected to ridge southward through the mid-Atlantic along the eastern Appalachians, setting up a potential CAD airmass on Sunday, though the lack of precip and the progressive nature of the high to the north may help inhibit that. Also, the strengthening cold front to the west rapidly approaching the region could also limit the duration. Lots of forecast uncertainty with all of that at this time. A surface low could develop along the NC coast within an inverted trough Mon/Mon night while a stronger low moves through the OH Valley and Northeast US Sun night/Mon, with its attendant cold front pushing east through the region Mon/Mon night.

Precipitation: Right now the models are having a hard time determining if/how much precipitation will fall across central NC through Monday, but there is a signal that most of the moisture could get squeezed out over the mountains. The best chance of precipitation will be with the fropa, dry otherwise.

Temperatures: Temperatures could be tricky depending on if the CAD materializes and also depending on the timing of the front. Expect a bit of a roller coaster of temps Sat through Tue, with the highest temps Sat/Sat night and lowest Mon night/Tue.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 620 PM Tuesday .

Through 00z Thursday: High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. Winds out of the SW will likely remain up around 5kts until around 06z when the pressure gradient begins to relax and surface conditions go calm. Clear skies tonight will give way to mid/high level clouds (between 15-25kft) moving into central NC Wednesday morning. Winds will eventually turn out of the south during the afternoon hours and will remain light and variable with no gusty winds expected. -Swiggett

Outlook: VFR conditions will hold through Sat, with just periods of mid and high clouds and dry weather expected. Adverse aviation conditions become more likely Sat night into Sun, as a backdoor front strengthens across the Carolinas in tandem with the arrival of a series of stronger upper level disturbances across the southern United States. -GIH

FIRE WEATHER. As of 320 AM Tuesday .

. INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY .

The combination of southwesterly winds gusting to around 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity values falling into the 25% to 35% range, along with recent dry weather and an abundance of leaves and other tree litter will lead to a risk of dangerous fire growth Tuesday.

The state of North Carolina has issued a state wide burn ban, which is in effect until further notice. Thus, outdoor burning is prohibited.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



SYNOPSIS . CBL/GIH NEAR TERM . Hartfield SHORT TERM . Hartfield LONG TERM . KC AVIATION . Swiggett/Hartfield FIRE WEATHER . BSD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC3 mi-43131 minN 010.00 miFair46°F27°F49%1019.6 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC24 mi73 minWSW 610.00 miFair46°F27°F47%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTA

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This day000--0--00--0000W3SW6SW10
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