Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:41 AM   Moonset 10:20 AM

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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 957 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Rest of today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S late. Waves a moderate chop. Tonight - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Fri - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves light chop. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 939 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will anchor off the southeastern us coast for the majority of this week. An upper level disturbance will move across the region tonight into Wednesday. High pressure will return for the end of the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 301409 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1009 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front will move through the area on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1010 AM Tuesday...No changes needed to the previous forecast. Mid-level ridge axis is beginning to shift offshore as shortwave trough, currently digging into the Gulf States, continues to migrate eastward into tonight. Despite continued low-level moisture advection, the combination of residual subsidence and warm temps aloft are expected to keep the risk of showers at a minimum again today as the seabreeze moves inland.
Yesterday the chance of showers was close to zero. Today it will be about 5-10%. Once again, temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid 80s inland(~10 degrees above normal), and the 70s along the coast (close to normal).

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

SFC low pressure is forecast to pass south of Southern New England tonight, with an associated weak frontal boundary moving slowly east from the Appalachians to the Carolinas and Virginia. A modest LLJ is forecast to develop ahead of the advancing front, with steady low- mid level moistening expected through the night. Mid-level lapse rates will be weakening with time, but a deepening layer of moisture appears supportive of a zone of modest instability, especially on the nose of the strongest elevated moisture transport. Within this zone, SREF probs give a 50-70% chance of MUCAPE > 500j/kg developing ahead of the front and an upper level shortwave approaching from the west. Large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to be on the weak side, but a weak coastal trough moving inland plus modest low-mid level convergence appears supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from coastal SC northeast through SE NC after midnight. Weak effective shear (~20kt) is expected to limit any severe weather potential tonight. Where thunderstorms manage to develop, rainfall amounts as high as 0.25-0.50" will be possible. Otherwise, amounts are forecast to be less than 0.10".

With increasing clouds, and steady boundary layer moistening, temperatures tonight are expected to be very mild for late April, only dropping into the mid 60s. For perspective, normal lows this time of year are in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Inland highs in the low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then an unsettled weekend and start to the new week

FORECAST DETAILS

A shortwave trough will move east across the area on Wednesday and support shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%). As for severe potential, the threat appears low but non-zero with the high CAPE/low shear environment being painted by the CAMs. Highs will reach the low 80s with dew points in the low 60s, which will generate plenty of instability to support thunderstorms. The CAMs are showing large MUCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg but weak effective shear. However, it should be noted that the CAMs are showing a higher amount of shear than they were 24 hours ago.
This is especially true along counties south of HWY 70 near the coast, so this will be a trend to keep an eye on.

We return to warm, dry weather on Thursday and Friday with a ridge building over the southeast US. Highs will be in the mid 80s across the coastal plain and low 70s at the beaches.

Unsettled weather returns this weekend with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will be gradually washed out as a surface low forms due to a shortwave trough moving across the southeast. At the same time, a cold front associated with a deep low over south-central Canada will move into our area and stall. PoPs increase west to east on Saturday with shower and thunderstorm activity possible through Monday (15-30% chance).

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Wednesday/...
As of 715 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub VFR conditions possible late tonight (30-50% chance)

- TSRA possible after 06z/2am tonight (20-40% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

SCT cumulus clouds are developing off the coast of GA/SC this morning, and this is a sign of increasing moisture ahead of an upper level wave moving through the TN Valley. Low-level moisture will continue to steadily stream north through tonight, leading to a modest increase in the risk of SHRA, TSRA, and lowering CIGs late tonight. The greatest risk of the above- mentioned conditions is after 06z/2am tonight. Prior to then, gusty S to SW winds will be common, with an added boost along the advancing seabreeze this afternoon. Despite the increasing moisture, I expect a mostly dry seabreeze this afternoon, with the SHRA risk being <10%.

Of note for tonight, the coverage of SHRA and TSRA is expected to be scattered in nature, and guidance differs on where the greatest risk will be. Because of this, I opted to leave out any mention in the TAFs for now. In a similar fashion, guidance continues to differ on where/when/if sub-VFR CIGs will develop.
Because of this, I decided to introduce a SCT025 layer, but held off on going MVFR just yet.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR expected through the period but a few instances of unsettled weather are expected. An approaching disturbance will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday (30-60%). By Saturday, a cold front will be moving into the area and bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms (15-30%). Lowered CIGs and VIS are expected during these times.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Background northeasterly long-period swell continues through tonight, and will combine with a modest southerly wind swell, producing seas of 3-5 ft. Like yesterday, breezy southwesterly winds of 10-20kt will be common through tonight, with a few gusts to near 25kt where the thermal gradient in maximized.
Because of the marginal nature of the winds, we'll continue to run headline-free.

Late tonight, an upper level disturbance and a developing weak coastal trough is expected to support an increasing risk of showers and thunderstorms, especially for the southern waters/rivers/sounds.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-SCA conditions with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms

FORECAST DETAILS

Although marine conditions are forecast to remain below SCA criteria, opportunities for showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and this weekend. Winds will be variable through the period due to several systems moving through but will remain around 5-10 kt with 2-4 ft seas.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Davis Slough
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Tue -- 01:10 AM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:45 PM EDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet

Oregon Inlet Channel
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:36 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:27 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Oregon Inlet Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

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