Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McMinnville, TN
May 31, 2024 7:41 AM CDT (12:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:29 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 1:46 AM Moonset 1:37 PM |
FXUS64 KOHX 311119 AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 619 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
We get to enjoy one more day of really nice dry wx. Highs today will be warmer as an upper level ridge moves overhead, but humidity levels will still be nicer than usual for this time of year. High clouds will thicken through the day as a storm system moves from the plains to the Ms Valley.
That storm system will move east o the OH/TN Valleys bringing increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and Saturday. The greatest rain chances tonight through Saturday will be over the west half of our area, but everybody will have some chance.
Slight strengthening of a surface low pressure center just northwest of our area will create a tighter pressure gradient, gusty winds, and adequate wind shear (25-35KT) for a low-end severe storm risk Saturday afternoon and evening. Most models show a few hundred J/kg cape, but there is a conditional severe risk if the maximum possible instability can be realized at the same time shear peaks. SPC has our west half under a marginal risk, or level 1 out of 5, with localized wet downbursts being the main concern. Otherwise, the increased atmospheric moisture and instability will be enough fuel for any thunderstorms that develop to produce dangerous lightning and local downpours, so keep this in mind if you have have outdoor plans.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
For Sunday through Wednesday, a few weak upper level systems will work with the continued warm and humid air in place to keep at least scattered rain chances in the forecast each day. Wind shear looks generally weak, but there could be enough instability for some local gusty winds and heavy downpours with the stronger thunderstorms, especially during the peak heating hours each afternoon and early evening. An uptick in strong thunderstorm potential could develop ahead of a cold front late Wednesday or Thursday, but the details are uncertain at this time. The cold front promises to bring another shot of cooler and drier air for late next week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with increasing high clouds. Winds will generally be easterly to southeasterly.
Rain is expected to move into the area from the west, likely after midnight and continuing into Saturday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 85 66 80 67 / 0 20 80 80 Clarksville 82 65 77 65 / 0 40 80 70 Crossville 77 57 75 60 / 0 10 40 70 Columbia 85 66 79 65 / 10 30 80 80 Cookeville 79 62 77 63 / 0 10 60 80 Jamestown 78 58 76 61 / 0 10 50 70 Lawrenceburg 83 66 78 65 / 10 20 70 80 Murfreesboro 85 66 80 65 / 0 20 70 80 Waverly 83 65 78 64 / 10 40 90 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 619 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
We get to enjoy one more day of really nice dry wx. Highs today will be warmer as an upper level ridge moves overhead, but humidity levels will still be nicer than usual for this time of year. High clouds will thicken through the day as a storm system moves from the plains to the Ms Valley.
That storm system will move east o the OH/TN Valleys bringing increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and Saturday. The greatest rain chances tonight through Saturday will be over the west half of our area, but everybody will have some chance.
Slight strengthening of a surface low pressure center just northwest of our area will create a tighter pressure gradient, gusty winds, and adequate wind shear (25-35KT) for a low-end severe storm risk Saturday afternoon and evening. Most models show a few hundred J/kg cape, but there is a conditional severe risk if the maximum possible instability can be realized at the same time shear peaks. SPC has our west half under a marginal risk, or level 1 out of 5, with localized wet downbursts being the main concern. Otherwise, the increased atmospheric moisture and instability will be enough fuel for any thunderstorms that develop to produce dangerous lightning and local downpours, so keep this in mind if you have have outdoor plans.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
For Sunday through Wednesday, a few weak upper level systems will work with the continued warm and humid air in place to keep at least scattered rain chances in the forecast each day. Wind shear looks generally weak, but there could be enough instability for some local gusty winds and heavy downpours with the stronger thunderstorms, especially during the peak heating hours each afternoon and early evening. An uptick in strong thunderstorm potential could develop ahead of a cold front late Wednesday or Thursday, but the details are uncertain at this time. The cold front promises to bring another shot of cooler and drier air for late next week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with increasing high clouds. Winds will generally be easterly to southeasterly.
Rain is expected to move into the area from the west, likely after midnight and continuing into Saturday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 85 66 80 67 / 0 20 80 80 Clarksville 82 65 77 65 / 0 40 80 70 Crossville 77 57 75 60 / 0 10 40 70 Columbia 85 66 79 65 / 10 30 80 80 Cookeville 79 62 77 63 / 0 10 60 80 Jamestown 78 58 76 61 / 0 10 50 70 Lawrenceburg 83 66 78 65 / 10 20 70 80 Murfreesboro 85 66 80 65 / 0 20 70 80 Waverly 83 65 78 64 / 10 40 90 70
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRNC WARREN COUNTY MEML,TN | 1 sm | 26 min | NE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 30.21 |
Northern Alabama,
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