Thursday, January20, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Claremont, NC

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 5:41PM Thursday January 20, 2022 6:49 PM EST (23:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:21PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Claremont, NC
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location: 35.73, -81.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 202318 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 618 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will settle along the Carolina Coast tonight, setting the stage for a surface low to develop near Georgia. As the low ripples along the front, wintry precipitation is likely to develop Friday afternoon into Friday night. Cold and dry high pressure quickly builds in for the weekend and the first part of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 600 PM EST Thursday: Main change this update was the issuance of an SPS for the potential development of patchy black ice for much of the forecast area late tonight into Friday morning as rainfall runoff and snowmelt combined with below freezing temps could lead to any wet spots re-freezing overnight. Otherwise, just blended in the latest OBS to the current forecast and made a few minor tweaks to PoPs through Friday night.

The frontal boundary should stall just south and east of the area while a surface wave develops along the boundary near the Carolina Coast in response to increasing large scale heights, which will help induce cyclogenesis. Some form of frontogenesis and strong CAA filtering in behind the cold front may allow for a transition to wintry precip across the foothills and piedmont this evening. This is already the case over the mountains as temperatures continue to plummet. Snow has been reported in the mountains, but the drier air entraining into the region will quickly shut off any real winter weather threat. Accumulation may occur above 4500', but likely to remain under Winter Weather Advisory threshold. As the boundary stalls to the south tonight, moist upglide will build back over the boundary and could prolong precip along and east of I-77, which would then allow the precipitation to become frozen. Not expecting much in terms of accumulation at this time outside of the Winter Weather Advisory. Expect temperatures to drop off rather significantly tonight compared to last night as strong CAA enters the boundary layer with overnight lows forecasted to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

A deepening positively tilted trough stretching from Atlantic Canada through the OH/TN Valleys looks to sharpen as it approaches the area Friday into Friday night. Weak CAD will begin to take form with 850mb WAA overhead, which will enhance the moist upglide behind the boundary to provide moisture in the cold air. The axis of the trough will lag just behind the better synoptic forcing associated with the trough and would produce the opportunity for redevelopment on the far western flank of the coastal low as it slowly lifts further offshore the Carolina Coast along the aforementioned cold front. Thus, precipitation could enter back into the region Friday afternoon/evening in the form of mostly snow, with sleet mixing in at times. One thing to note, saturation may not make it the ice nucleation activation threshold and could make the forecast tricky due to the possibility of light freezing rain developing instead of snow, but this is rare for our area. The snow would be light in general and would struggle to produce more than an inch or two at the very most. More guidance than not keeps the drier air entrained over the area as the upglide fetch tries to overrule the dry air. It will be a battle and who comes out on top will ultimately decide the CFWA fate for winter weather. As of now, leaning towards the dry side of things and only keeping chance PoPs for the eastern half of the CFWA. Otherwise, strong CAA and the development of a weak in-situ CAD will keep temperatures ~20+ degrees below normal for most locations. Expect the trough axis to lift after 06Z Saturday as the leading edge of a strong surface high to the west begins to control the overall weather pattern. Temperatures Friday night are forecasted to be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with skies becoming mostly clear by daybreak Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 1130 AM Thu: Dry high pressure will remain over the region thru the weekend, as an upper trough digs over the eastern CONUS. A shot of very weak DPVA may come to the area early Sunday from an embedded shortwave, but with practically no moisture to work with. CAA looks to continue through the short-term period, with enough insolation and diffluence aloft that CAD should quickly dissolve Saturday. Relatively weak flow however offers little opportunity for downsloping to offset the CAA, and as winds back Sunday in response to convergence between the northern and southern streams, the direction becomes unfavorable. Accordingly, still looking cold as the main story for the weekend. Temps are expected to top out 10-13 degrees below normal Saturday despite sunny skies, even following the warmer MOS blend; the NW NC Piedmont in particular may struggle to rise past 40, coming out of CAD. Continued mostly clear skies suggest little rebound in mins Saturday night. Airmass modification should let maxes rise almost back to normal Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 200 pm EST Thursday: A brief shot of shallow northwest flow moisture may impinge on the upslope areas of the western mountains Sunday night, but this should produce little more than clouds as the moisture dries up quickly through daybreak Monday. A weakly reinforcing cold front will also settle southward through the area by Monday.

Meanwhile, a southern stream cutoff low near the Four Corners region of the desert southwest will be in the process of opening Sunday night and then phasing back into the northern stream over the southern Plains Monday. The deamplifying wave will likely cross the Lower Mississippi River Valley Monday evening and then race quickly to the base of the southern Appalachians by early Tuesday. The wave should quickly lift northeast of the region by Tuesday afternoon. Will center the best PoPs with the swiftly moving wave around the 06Z to 18Z time frame on Tuesday with decent, but brief, moisture return. Chilly profiles will support a rain/snow mix, with light snow accumulations possible in affected areas mainly across the mountains and the northern tier. Northwest flow moisture and snow showers may continue through Tuesday night, with any additional light snow accumulations near the Tennessee border by daybreak Wednesday.

The eastern CONUS trough will amplify once again Tuesday night through Wednesday as northern tier energy digs southward through the Great Lakes Region. Dry surface high pressure will build over to the north of the region through Wednesday night. The ECMWF is much more amplified than the GFS with the digging trough as it approaches the Appalachians late Wednesday, with the GFS favoring shortwave development back over the Plains in the lee of the Rockies. This uncertainty lead to uncertain sensible weather in the East by Thursday, so PoPs will be avoided through Thursday for now given fairly limited moisture with most solutions.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: Broken band of precip associated with the cold front passage has progged to keep some mention of either -SHRA or VCSH in the TAF through at least 00Z. MVFR cigs have developed, with lowering cigs to IFR have been observed at some of the TAF sites. Winds have shifted to the N/NE behind the front (KAVL remains out of the NW) and should remain out of this direction through much of the night at around 10 - 15 kts with some low-end gusts as strong CAA filters in. Cigs should improve overnight, but wintry precip could begin to make its presence felt just after sunset, especially at KCLT where the moisture hangs on long enough for the cold air to interact. Did not include wintry precip at KAVL and KHKY or Upstate sites due to low confidence in this development. Vsbys are around MVFR levels currently as the rain continues to fall, but that will eventually lift over the next few hours as winds begin to pick up and rain moves off to the east. More winter weather could be in store Friday afternoon/evening, mainly near KCLT and has been included in a PROB30. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions tomorrow with lingering MVFR cigs. Winds will steadily come out of the NE (NW at KAVL) with low-end gusts continuing through the period.

Outlook: Cold high pressure builds back into the area tonight and continues into early next week. Light wintry precipitation may redevelop over the Piedmont on Friday before drier air returns for the weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ072-082. SC . Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for SCZ014.

SYNOPSIS . ARK NEAR TERM . AP/CAC SHORT TERM . Wimberley LONG TERM . HG AVIATION . CAC


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 99 mi80 min NNE 4.1G6 49°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC10 mi2.9 hrsNE 910.00 miLight Drizzle38°F36°F91%1019.6 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC13 mi2.9 hrsENE 76.00 miFog/Mist40°F39°F97%1018.5 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC17 mi2.9 hrsNE 55.00 miLight Rain40°F38°F95%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVH

Wind History from SVH (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrSW30W3SW3SW4SW6SW5S4S3S4W50S3N400N4NE5N7NE7N9NE6NE9NE6
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2 days agoW11
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0W30W5W5000000000W40W4W6W30000

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