Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jamesville, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:19PM Thursday October 28, 2021 5:35 PM EDT (21:35 UTC) Moonrise 11:23PMMoonset 1:24PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 258 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm edt this evening through Friday morning...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy. Showers likely early this evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms late this evening and overnight.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves choppy. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jamesville, NC
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location: 35.76, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 281949 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 349 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A complex low pressure system will impact the region tonight into Saturday. High pressure will build in from the northwest Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 320 PM Thu . Cloud cover is really thickening up across our area as of just after 3, with the leading edge of rain showers just on our doorstep. As a warm front now across southern Georgia lifts northward along the coast tonight, widespread rains will move across our area by early evening. While basin average rain amounts will be around a half an inch, and must of the initial showers will be quite light, some brief heavier downpours are likely as precipitable water values climb from under an inch now, to near 2 inches by late evening.

After 07Z this steadier light rain, with embedded heavier pockets of rain will gradually shift northeast and potentially out of our area. We will then turn our attention to the potential of a broken line of showers and embedded thunder which is expected to sweep across Eastern NC through daybreak, and into mid morning over the Outer Banks. For most of the area this will be ahead of an occluded front, and we should be quite stable owing to elevated thunder inland. Right along the coast however, after 07Z, MLCAPES quickly rise in a narrow 2 to 4 hour window to around 500 J/KG. With plenty of shear in the low levels, if we can get enough instability for a few storms to produce damaging winds and even offer the threat of tornadoes. The afternoon update from SPC was excellent, and has trimmed back and focused the area of concern right toward the Crystal Coast and that matches latest trends well. Higher resolution guidance still suggests the more appreciable convection will be toward the Gulf Stream, but with a bit of instability along the coast, any storms that form will need careful watching.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. As of 320 PM Thu . The broken line mentioned above will be moving offshore around daybreak for the Crystal Coast, but the Outer Banks will still be at risk for heavier showers and embedded thunder through mid morning. After that time most of the day will remain rain free with increasing amounts of sunshine and temps into the 70s, making for a nice end to the work week.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 315 AM Thu . Active weather pattern through the first part of the period with troughing generally persisting over the eastern US and large complex low pressure system impacting the area Fri and Sat. High pressure will build over the area Sunday into early next week. A weak cold front will move through the area mid next week.

Friday night through Saturday . Stacked low pressure over the TN valley region will slowly lift across the southern Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic into Saturday. Isolated showers Sat, best chances along the immediate coast. Cooler Sat with highs 65-70 deg.

Sunday through Tuesday . Low pressure will continues to lift through the NE US as trough axis shifts off the east coast. Upper flow becomes more zonal Sunday as sfc high pressure builds in from the WNW. Upper ridge begins to build across the SE Mon as next frontal system approaches from the west. Near normal temps expected with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows mid/upper 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

Tuesday and Thursday . High pressure will slide off the coast Tue as a weakening cold front approaches from the west. The front is progged to push through Tue night, though still some timing differences this far out. Little moisture with this feature, so will continue dry forecast through Wed. Moisture increases late week with low pressure moving through the gulf states. Near normal temps will continue through the period with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s/50s.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. SHORT TERM /through Friday/ . As of 200 PM Thu . Rain will overspread the terminals by early evening with VFR conditions now dropping to MVFR quickly in lower clouds and precipitation. Models still hint at IFR possible after 03Z. With a breezy boundary layer, confidence is a bit lower that this will happen so we will continue with low end MVFR cigs, and SCT IFR cigs.

Rain clears the terminals quickly Friday morning but MVFR cigs should persist through mid morning before a return to VFR.

Southeast winds now veer into the south late tonight and eventually southwest Friday. Gusts to 20 kts possible especially tonight.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/ . As of 315 AM Thu . Widespread showers and isolated tstms will continue to lift through the area Fri morning, with periods of moderate to locally heavy rain. Sub-VFR conditions likely Fri morning with cigs grad improving through the day. Isolated to scattered showers Fri night and Sat. SE winds early Friday, becoming SSW and gusting 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

MARINE. SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/ . As of 330 PM Thu . No changes to the current headlines of SCA over the inland waters, gale warnings over the coastal waters, and a high surf advisory north of Cape Lookout.

Overall thinking stays the same as before, with easterly and even some northeast winds now quickly veering into the southeast by early tonight and increasing rapidly. Based on some of the latest higher resolution guidance we increased the winds a tad over the outer edges of our coastal waters, where gusts over 35 knots should be common. Winds peak tonight through mid Friday morning, before gradually diminishing a bit Friday afternoon to SCA.

Seas tonight increase to 8 to 12 feet, highest north of Cape Lookout. Seas remain elevated Friday, especially north of Cape Hatteras with 8 to 12 foot seas through midday. 6 to 8 foot seas elsewhere remain, with another slight uptick again late in the day.


LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/ . As of 405 AM Thu . SW 15-25 kt winds Fri night and 10-20 kt Sat. High pressure will grad build in from the west Sun, with winds becoming W 10-20 kt. The high will crest over the area Mon with Nly winds 10-15 kt.

Seas 4-7 ft Sat grad subsiding to 3-6 ft Sun as winds diminish and become more offshore. Seas will continue to subside to 2-4 ft Mon.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 330 PM Thu . Strong SE winds will develop tonight and continue into the first part of Friday, before shifting SSW. Strong onshore winds will combine with large NE swells from distant low pressure. High Surf Advisory for the beaches north of Cape Lookout continues with 6 to 9 foot waves in the surf zone. Main concern is rough surf, minor beach erosion and localized ocean overwash (mainly along Hwy 12 in spots where with vulnerable dune structure), esp during times of high tide.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. High Surf Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . EH SHORT TERM . EH LONG TERM . CQD AVIATION . EH/CQD/MS MARINE . EH/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 68 mi66 min NE 17G18 64°F 68°F1010.7 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 70 mi70 min 68°F5 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 72 mi66 min NE 12G16 66°F 68°F1010.3 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC15 mi61 minESE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F55°F65%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3000000000000000E7E8SE5SE6SE6SE5SE6E5
1 day agoW5NW10
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W6------------W4W4W4NW7
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2 days ago0SE3SE500--W20
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:26 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:37 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:48 PM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:24 AM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 06:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:55 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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