Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manteo, NC
May 6, 2024 1:34 PM EDT (17:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM Moonset 5:31 PM |
AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 1131 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of today - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Scattered showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 936 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will occur through Tue due to passage of an upper level disturbance. Bermuda high pressure, the piedmont trough and the daily sea breeze will combine to produce modest sw winds, with periodic gusts up to 25 kt, Tue through Thu night. A cold front accompanied with convection will blast across the area late Thu into Fri.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 061504 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1104 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1045 AM Monday...
Satellite imagery this morning shows more agitation to the cumulus field along a surface confluence zone that extends from near Wilmington northeast through the NRN OBX. Based on the 12z MHX observed sounding, the airmass within this confluence zone is already uncapped, with SBCAPE around 1000j/kg. Thus far, low- level convergence has been sufficient for the development of scattered showers, but perhaps not strong enough for deeper, more sustained, convection. Additionally, deep layer shear is very weak (~10kt per the 12z MHX sounding). This environment will continue to support "airmass" type showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours, with the greatest chance focused along the above-mentioned confluence axis (which is expected to drift inland with the developing seabreeze). The most likely hazards will be lightning strikes and brief, but very heavy, rain. The risk of severe weather through 1 pm this afternoon is LOW (<5% chance). The forecast was adjusted some to reflect the highest pops along the confluence axis, with lower pops elsewhere.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to ridge in to the area from offshore with weak surface troughing across the Carolina Piedmont. A weak shortwave will cross through the region today, and help support the development of scattered to at times widespread showers and thunderstorms today.
Morning coastal convection will diminish before noon and then expect convective coverage to focus along a strengthening sea breeze from late morning onward, advancing inland through the afternoon. Generally 30-50% chances of rain expected through mid afternoon with this activity. Thereafter, more widespread rain and thunderstorms (60-70%) will likely develop over the coastal plain as sea breeze activity meets semi organized convection moving in from central NC. A few of these cells could pose a threat for some stronger winds before convection begins to weaken around sunset. Temperatures will be mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies, but a few locations could get into the mid 80s before clouds and convective coverage increases this afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
As of 730 AM Mon...Any remaining convection will continue to decay this evening, with just some widely scattered activity expected overnight inland. Along the coast and offshore, nocturnal convection will ramp up again and scattered shower and thunderstorms are possible here by early tomorrow morning.
Temperatures will be mild with lows mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As 345 AM Mon...Unsettled weather will continue through midweek as a weak trough lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. Wednesday may be the driest day of the week with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.
However this lack of precipitation will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. An approaching strong frontal system will then impact the area Thursday into Friday once again bringing unsettled weather back to the area. More benign weather possible over the weekend.
Tuesday... A weak mid level trough will be making its way across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. This will bring height falls to ENC Tue afternoon as well as a weak surface trough and our next threat at some unsettled weather. Ample moisture will be in place across the area with widespread PWAT's over 1.0". As a result latest global and Hi-Res guidance shows SBCAPE values building to around 1000-2000 J/kg Tue afternoon with HRRR probabilities of 1500+ J/kg of SBCAPE around 50-80% across much of the region. In addition to this 0-6 km bulk shear will also be increasing as well Tue afternoon to around 25-35 kts. While shear and mid level lapse rates won't be very impressive, the weak forcing and strong instability should be more than enough to promote scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with a few isolated thunderstorms becoming strong to potentially severe in nature.
Biggest threat within the strongest storms would be damaging wind gusts and some isolated small hail. Highs on Tue get into the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX with lows getting down into the 60s.
Wednesday... A more zonal upper level pattern briefly emerges across the Mid-Atlantic as a weak impulse treks across the zonal flow. At the surface SW'rly flow and increasing low level thicknesses will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast. There is a chance for some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to occur especially along any sea/sound breeze Wed afternoon as strong instability will once again be in place though with weaker shear and forcing compared to Tuesday current thinking is that storms won't be very organized in nature. This could change and bears monitoring in the coming days but given latest thinking Wed still looks to be the driest day out of the week so far.
Thursday through Sunday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again. Latest trends have sped up an incoming cold front with the frontal passage now forecast to occur Thurs night into Fri morning. As a result greatest thunderstorm and severe threat is now likely on Thurs afternoon and evening with a diminishing threat on Friday. With this change in mind, did increase PoP's to likely on Thurs afternoon and lowered PoP's on Friday to SChc to Chc.
Otherwise as noted above, strong instability (SBCAPE values >1500 J/kg), ample 0-6 km shear (35-45 kts), and steep mid level lapse rates (6.5-7.5 C/Km) will likely result in a more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm threat Thurs afternoon and evening.
Though a robust shortwave trough will then swing southward into the area on Friday, with the quicker cold frontal passage precip on Friday is now forecast to primarily remain rain with only an isolated thunder threat as instability will have been shunted well offshore.
The front will push through the area by Friday morning with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday and Sunday. A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 730 AM Mon...A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings this morning will improve over the next couple of hours to VFR levels.
Thereafter expect scattered to at times widespread convection to develop first along the sea breeze and then farther inland later this afternoon, which could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions at the terminals.
A similar regime will remain tonight with moist SW flow present, and low level stratus (mostly at MVFR levels) is again expected to form. The best chances for this will be along the coastal plain, but there is at least some risk of MVFR ceilings developing closer to US 17.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected for the most part through mid-week outside of any shower or thunderstorm each aftn/evening that impacts the area with the highest threat for thunderstorm activity occuring on Tue. Another round of sub VFR conditions will be possible Thu afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region bringing more widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with VFR conditions likely returning at some point on Fri.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Mon...Outside of convection decent boating conditions are expected through tonight. Winds will be S/SSW at 10-15 kts through this afternoon, and then increase in response to the building thermal gradient to become SW 15-20 kts tonight through early tomorrow morning. Seas will be 2-4 ft today, and increase to 3-5 ft early tomorrow morning.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Mon... An active weather pattern will lead to deteriorating boating conditions through midweek. We start the period off with 15-20 kt SW'rly winds and 3-5 ft seas across our waters. Given the strong thermal gradient we may briefly flirt with SCA conditions across our coastal waters Tue afternoon and evening as ocnl gusts up to 25 kts will not be out of the question. However confidence is not high enough to issue SCA's just yet and will let the day shift take another look to see how things have trended. Otherwise 15-20 kt SW'rly winds will continue across all our waters with ocnl gusts to 25 kts along the Gulf Stream waters on Wed. As a cold front approaches on Thursday SW'rly winds increase further closer to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts at times promoting SCA conditions across our waters on Thurs with winds potentially easing and becoming more westerly by the end of the week. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1104 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 1045 AM Monday...
Satellite imagery this morning shows more agitation to the cumulus field along a surface confluence zone that extends from near Wilmington northeast through the NRN OBX. Based on the 12z MHX observed sounding, the airmass within this confluence zone is already uncapped, with SBCAPE around 1000j/kg. Thus far, low- level convergence has been sufficient for the development of scattered showers, but perhaps not strong enough for deeper, more sustained, convection. Additionally, deep layer shear is very weak (~10kt per the 12z MHX sounding). This environment will continue to support "airmass" type showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours, with the greatest chance focused along the above-mentioned confluence axis (which is expected to drift inland with the developing seabreeze). The most likely hazards will be lightning strikes and brief, but very heavy, rain. The risk of severe weather through 1 pm this afternoon is LOW (<5% chance). The forecast was adjusted some to reflect the highest pops along the confluence axis, with lower pops elsewhere.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to ridge in to the area from offshore with weak surface troughing across the Carolina Piedmont. A weak shortwave will cross through the region today, and help support the development of scattered to at times widespread showers and thunderstorms today.
Morning coastal convection will diminish before noon and then expect convective coverage to focus along a strengthening sea breeze from late morning onward, advancing inland through the afternoon. Generally 30-50% chances of rain expected through mid afternoon with this activity. Thereafter, more widespread rain and thunderstorms (60-70%) will likely develop over the coastal plain as sea breeze activity meets semi organized convection moving in from central NC. A few of these cells could pose a threat for some stronger winds before convection begins to weaken around sunset. Temperatures will be mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies, but a few locations could get into the mid 80s before clouds and convective coverage increases this afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
As of 730 AM Mon...Any remaining convection will continue to decay this evening, with just some widely scattered activity expected overnight inland. Along the coast and offshore, nocturnal convection will ramp up again and scattered shower and thunderstorms are possible here by early tomorrow morning.
Temperatures will be mild with lows mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As 345 AM Mon...Unsettled weather will continue through midweek as a weak trough lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. Wednesday may be the driest day of the week with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.
However this lack of precipitation will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. An approaching strong frontal system will then impact the area Thursday into Friday once again bringing unsettled weather back to the area. More benign weather possible over the weekend.
Tuesday... A weak mid level trough will be making its way across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. This will bring height falls to ENC Tue afternoon as well as a weak surface trough and our next threat at some unsettled weather. Ample moisture will be in place across the area with widespread PWAT's over 1.0". As a result latest global and Hi-Res guidance shows SBCAPE values building to around 1000-2000 J/kg Tue afternoon with HRRR probabilities of 1500+ J/kg of SBCAPE around 50-80% across much of the region. In addition to this 0-6 km bulk shear will also be increasing as well Tue afternoon to around 25-35 kts. While shear and mid level lapse rates won't be very impressive, the weak forcing and strong instability should be more than enough to promote scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with a few isolated thunderstorms becoming strong to potentially severe in nature.
Biggest threat within the strongest storms would be damaging wind gusts and some isolated small hail. Highs on Tue get into the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX with lows getting down into the 60s.
Wednesday... A more zonal upper level pattern briefly emerges across the Mid-Atlantic as a weak impulse treks across the zonal flow. At the surface SW'rly flow and increasing low level thicknesses will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast. There is a chance for some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to occur especially along any sea/sound breeze Wed afternoon as strong instability will once again be in place though with weaker shear and forcing compared to Tuesday current thinking is that storms won't be very organized in nature. This could change and bears monitoring in the coming days but given latest thinking Wed still looks to be the driest day out of the week so far.
Thursday through Sunday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again. Latest trends have sped up an incoming cold front with the frontal passage now forecast to occur Thurs night into Fri morning. As a result greatest thunderstorm and severe threat is now likely on Thurs afternoon and evening with a diminishing threat on Friday. With this change in mind, did increase PoP's to likely on Thurs afternoon and lowered PoP's on Friday to SChc to Chc.
Otherwise as noted above, strong instability (SBCAPE values >1500 J/kg), ample 0-6 km shear (35-45 kts), and steep mid level lapse rates (6.5-7.5 C/Km) will likely result in a more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm threat Thurs afternoon and evening.
Though a robust shortwave trough will then swing southward into the area on Friday, with the quicker cold frontal passage precip on Friday is now forecast to primarily remain rain with only an isolated thunder threat as instability will have been shunted well offshore.
The front will push through the area by Friday morning with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday and Sunday. A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 730 AM Mon...A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings this morning will improve over the next couple of hours to VFR levels.
Thereafter expect scattered to at times widespread convection to develop first along the sea breeze and then farther inland later this afternoon, which could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions at the terminals.
A similar regime will remain tonight with moist SW flow present, and low level stratus (mostly at MVFR levels) is again expected to form. The best chances for this will be along the coastal plain, but there is at least some risk of MVFR ceilings developing closer to US 17.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected for the most part through mid-week outside of any shower or thunderstorm each aftn/evening that impacts the area with the highest threat for thunderstorm activity occuring on Tue. Another round of sub VFR conditions will be possible Thu afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region bringing more widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with VFR conditions likely returning at some point on Fri.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Mon...Outside of convection decent boating conditions are expected through tonight. Winds will be S/SSW at 10-15 kts through this afternoon, and then increase in response to the building thermal gradient to become SW 15-20 kts tonight through early tomorrow morning. Seas will be 2-4 ft today, and increase to 3-5 ft early tomorrow morning.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Mon... An active weather pattern will lead to deteriorating boating conditions through midweek. We start the period off with 15-20 kt SW'rly winds and 3-5 ft seas across our waters. Given the strong thermal gradient we may briefly flirt with SCA conditions across our coastal waters Tue afternoon and evening as ocnl gusts up to 25 kts will not be out of the question. However confidence is not high enough to issue SCA's just yet and will let the day shift take another look to see how things have trended. Otherwise 15-20 kt SW'rly winds will continue across all our waters with ocnl gusts to 25 kts along the Gulf Stream waters on Wed. As a cold front approaches on Thursday SW'rly winds increase further closer to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts at times promoting SCA conditions across our waters on Thurs with winds potentially easing and becoming more westerly by the end of the week. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC | 10 mi | 64 min | SSW 18G | 72°F | 71°F | 30.07 | ||
| 44086 | 14 mi | 38 min | 65°F | 3 ft | ||||
| DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 | 19 mi | 64 min | W 7G | 75°F | 30.03 | |||
| 44056 - Duck FRF, NC | 20 mi | 38 min | 62°F | 2 ft | ||||
| 44095 | 21 mi | 38 min | 64°F | 3 ft | ||||
| 44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) | 24 mi | 64 min | 68°F | 66°F | 3 ft | |||
| 41082 | 28 mi | 154 min | SSW 12 | 67°F | 64°F | 30.08 | ||
| 41083 | 45 mi | 154 min | SW 9.7 | 67°F | 63°F | 30.09 | ||
| 44079 | 48 mi | 154 min | SW 9.7 | 62°F | 57°F | 30.08 | ||
| HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC | 48 mi | 64 min | S 6G | 71°F | 71°F | 30.09 | ||
| 41120 | 49 mi | 94 min | 66°F | 4 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMQI DARE COUNTY RGNL,NC | 2 sm | 24 min | SSW 13 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Rain | 77°F | 70°F | 78% | 30.03 |
| KFFA FIRST FLIGHT,NC | 8 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 68°F | 74% | 30.01 |
Jennetts Pier (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EDT -0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT 3.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:34 PM EDT -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT 4.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EDT -0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT 3.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:34 PM EDT -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT 4.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 2.1 |
| 5 am |
| 3 |
| 6 am |
| 3.5 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 4 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Roanoke Sound Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:58 AM EDT -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:49 AM EDT 0.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:01 PM EDT -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:13 PM EDT 0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:58 AM EDT -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:49 AM EDT 0.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:01 PM EDT -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:13 PM EDT 0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0 |
| 3 am |
| -0 |
| 4 am |
| 0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0 |
| 3 pm |
| -0 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Morehead City, NC,
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