Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM   Moonset 12:52 PM

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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 121 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - W winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening. Mon - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 121 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will build in today with multiple disturbances crossing the area over the next few days.

FXUS62 KRAH 021840 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front will approach the area from the northeast on Friday before stalling over the northern Coastal Plain by Saturday morning. A series of weak upper level disturbances will move through the region Friday evening through Sunday, bringing periods of unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 PM Thursday...

An unseasonably strong mid-level ridge of 580dam at H5 will extend up through the Southeast and into the central Mid-Atlantic through tonight. A convectively enhanced disturbance will help shift the axis of the ridge towards the coast as it pivots across the Mid-MS and lower OH Valley, but will do very little to weaken the ridge heading into Fri morning. Mostly clear skies tonight and a weak pressure gradient across central NC would favor pockets of calm conditions and some radiational cooling potential, but light stirring across the Piedmont should prevent prolonged cooling. Lows tonight will generally range from the upper 50s to low 60s while mid 50s will be possible in spots where calm surface conditions are able to persist in the Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM Thursday...

A convectively enhanced disturbance over the Ohio Valley Fri morning will largely remain to our west and north as it rides through the western periphery of the high amplitude ridging along the East Coast through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a lobe a high pressure will ridge south through the Northeast and down the Mid-Atlantic coast during the daylight hours. This should effectively push a shallow backdoor cold front combined with the seabreeze through southeastern VA into the northern Coastal Plain of central NC Fri evening before stalling overnight. 12z Hi-Res guidance hints at some isolated shower potential early Fri afternoon over the Piedmont, but limited instability, dry air aloft, and a deeply mixed boundary layer will likely prevent much outside of towering cumulus and an isolated shower.

Otherwise, a very similar airmass will be in place with marginally cooler 850mb temperatures compared to Thurs and would result in highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Thickening mid/high clouds and bubbling cumulus during the afternoon may keep temperatures in the Triad closer to low/mid 80s. Underneath a blanket of cloud cover overnight, lows will be more uniform across the area with lows in the low/mid 60s.



LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 220 PM Thursday...

The first half of the extended forecast will feature an unsettled pattern. A weak surface low will be over the Ohio River Valley Saturday morning, slowly move to the east over Virginia by Sunday morning, then dissipate. A cold front will extend to the south from the low, and the front will be the primary rain-maker over the weekend. Extended likely pops a bit farther to the east both Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall amounts will range from a quarter inch in the southeast to nearly an inch in the northwest - needed rainfall, but not enough to change the drought status (almost all of which is D0 - abnormally dry - in our area). All locations will have at least a slight chance of thunderstorms, although instability values will be a little higher in the west. After the upper 80s and lower 90s of today and tomorrow, highs will be more seasonable for the weekend, ranging from the upper 70s the mid 80s.

An upper level trough will approach the area Monday and move overhead Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to all locations. The forecast should then generally dry out for the middle of the week. However, an upper ridge will build across the Carolinas, and with southwesterly surface flow, temperatures will rise above normal again. By Wednesday and Thursday, highs should be in the lower 90s with lows around 70, values more typical of July and August than early May.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 125 PM Thursday...

VFR fair weather cumulus has developed mainly across the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain, affecting FAY, will quickly disperse shortly after sunset. Light winds out of the southeast will slowly veer around to southwesterly by Sat afternoon. Crossover temperatures will be more difficult to achieve tonight compared to this morning and result in less favorable fog potential. Shallow moisture advection off the Atlantic and pockets of radiational cooling may develop another round of fog, potentially dense in spots, but probabilities are more favorable south of FAY.

Looking beyond 18z Fri, VFR conditions are likely to hold through Fri, although mid/high clouds will gradually increase from the west.
The chance for sub-VFR conditions within scattered to numerous showers and storms will increase starting late Fri night, lasting through Mon, as a series of disturbances passes over the region.
Areas of early-morning fog are also expected. -GIH

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Suffolk
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Thu -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:21 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:36 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
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Suffolk, Virginia, Tide feet

Hollidays Point (bridge)
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Thu -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:12 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:49 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:50 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia, Tide feet

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