Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:11 AM

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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 318 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat - E winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 254 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will anchor off the southeastern us coast this week. A decaying cold front will move through the region on Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday through Friday.

FXUS62 KMHX 291914 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 314 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front will impact the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 PM Mon...Very quiet weather pattern in place over the eastern CONUS this afternoon. Mid-level ridge remains overhead today as high pressure centered over the Atlantic extends onshore. This pattern will remain in place tonight, with continued southwesterly flow keeping overnight temperatures mild under clear skies - upper 50s to low 60s. Guidance has backed off a bit on low stratus potential overnight, with now only the NAM and ARW advertising such development. Both of these models have a history of being too aggressive in showing low stratus in south to southwesterly flow, and given the lack of support from any other guidance (including a reliable GFS LAMP) did not reflect this in the forecast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM Monday...Upper ridge will begin to break down tomorrow as a strengthening shortwave trough, currently digging into eastern Texas, shifts eastward. Attendant surface low pressure/trough will also move across the southeastern CONUS, bringing unsettled weather ahead of it. Eastern NC will remain under the influence of the ridge into Tuesday evening, keeping conditions dry but with increasing high clouds as upper level moisture increases. The minority of guidance quickest with the surface trough/low does show some isolated shower activity impacting the coastal plain around sunset tomorrow, but probability of this is too low (under 10%) to include mentionable PoPs. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than today, in the low to mid 80s inland.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Dry weather should prevail Tuesday with the system not making its way to ENC until Wednesday. With this disturbance expected to pass during Wednesday's peak heating, showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area (30-55% chance).
Although thunderstorms are possible, severe storms are less likely as very little shear is expected.

Thursday has trended drier for showers and thunderstorms with PoPs below slight chance. Temperatures will remain high with upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms (35-40%) by Saturday afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still well above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Tuesday/...
As of 125 PM Monday...The probability of sub-VFR flight conditions is under 10%.

VFR conditions persist across all of eastern NC under warm southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of high pressure centered off the southeastern coast. Not nearly as much moisture to work with today compared to yesterday and expect little if any cloud cover through Tues morning, apart from some spotty cu mainly south of EWN. Focus for tonight is nocturnal stratus as low levels continue to gradually moisten. If any develops, most favored sites would be EWN and OAJ. Even here, the reliable LAMP guidance doesn't show any chance of sub-VFR flight conditions higher than 5%. The only deterministic members to show restrictions are the ARW and NAM, which historically are too aggressive with showing stratus/low fog particularly in southwesterly flow regimes. Opted to keep a VFR forecast, but trends will continue to be monitored.

Breezy southwesterly winds continue tomorrow with building cirri as next mid-level wave gradually approaches the region.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Pred VFR expected through the period. An approaching disturbance will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...Quiet boating conditions in place this afternoon over area waters as high pressure remains anchored to our southeast. Regional observations show southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt with seas averaging 3 feet with periods of 10-11 seconds. Little change in these conditions are expected through the period. Like yesterday, an increase in winds across the northern waters and sounds with a tightening thermal gradient is expected and a few spotty gusts to 25 kt are possible. This is not expected to last long enough to warrant SCA. A similar pattern is expected tomorrow, although for a broader swath of near-shore waters.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early this week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early this week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
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Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Mon -- 12:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:52 AM EDT     2.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

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