Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 12:16 AM   Moonset 9:36 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KTSA 291100 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 600 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms continue across northwest AR, but these are advancing east and will wrap up the next couple of hours. Otherwise, widespread fog has developed over much of the area, with a Dense Fog Advisory now in effect.

A weak boundary is moving into the area from northwest to southeast, it's currently moving into the Tulsa area. CAM guidance does not advance it that much further into the area, perhaps another county or so east and south. Areas to the north of this boundary will dry slightly, eroding the fog potential. The fog will burn off shortly after sunrise today. With sunny and dry conditions for the rest of the morning and afternoon, highs will warm nicely, into the mid to upper 70s for most areas.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quiet weather will continue for much of Tuesday, with temperatures surging into the low to mid 80s as southerly flow resumes. By Tuesday evening a boundary will sag into northeast OK, with at least a low end chance of a few showers and thunderstorms north of this boundary. Heading into Wednesday this boundary will mostly wash out, but better forcing will arrive as a shortwave ejects from a trough in the west into the area. This will keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going, with 15-30 PoPs across the area. Model soundings show good instability and sufficient wind shear to support a low end severe threat, but the highest threat will likely remain west of the area.

The western trough will move into the northern Plains Thursday, with a sharp shortwave rounding the base of this trough. This will greatly increase wind shear and lift Thursday, but will also send a strong cold front into the region. Much more widespread precipitation is expected to develop with scattered to numerous thunderstorms. This is most likely the best chance for severe weather during the next week. Some lingering showers could continue into Friday before we get another break from the action.

Cooler and drier weather will settle into the area by later Friday and Saturday. Heading into Sunday and Monday ensemble guidance indicates another weather system could impact the area, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Dense fog will affect the far NW AR and SE OK TAF sites for a few hours this morning before burning off. MVFR cigs at KFSM should scatter out by mid-morning. VFR conditions will then prevail at all sites thru tonight.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 57 85 64 / 0 0 10 20 FSM 81 58 87 63 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 82 59 85 66 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 79 53 85 61 / 0 0 10 30 FYV 76 54 83 61 / 10 0 0 10 BYV 76 53 83 60 / 10 0 0 10 MKO 79 56 83 63 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 77 54 83 62 / 0 0 0 20 F10 80 57 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 81 58 84 64 / 0 0 0 0

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ062-063- 065>074.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002- 010-011.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tulsa, OK,