Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Low Mountain, AZ
May 20, 2024 4:03 AM MDT (10:03 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:55 PM Moonset 3:22 AM |
FXUS65 KFGZ 201002 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 302 AM MST Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong winds are expected today along with slightly cooler temperatures. A few isolated sprinkles or showers will be possible later this afternoon and evening over eastern Arizona, however much of the area will remain dry. Dry, mild, and breezy weather then continues for the remainder of the week.
DISCUSSION
Today...A closed-low off the southern California coast will ejects off the Pacific today, while at the same time a trough moves into the Great Basin. The two systems look to phase together today, leading to a strengthening upper-level jet over Arizona.
Gusty southwest winds ensue over much of the region with the increased pressure gradient. Model soundings for this afternoon show ample mixing potential, allowing for the stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. As a result, wind gusts of 35-45 kts will be possible over a majority of northern Arizona. Locally stronger winds up to 50 kts will be possible in the typical winder locations downwind of the Mogollon Rim into the Little Colorado River Valley.
Given the track of the system, a fairly dry air mass will be in place over the region (especially at the surface). The dry air mass combined with gusty winds will lead to areas of critical fire weather conditions, particularly across the lower elevations north of the Mogollon Rim.
While dry air will be in place for most, a tongue of mid-level moisture looks to into central Arizona this afternoon. Thus, there is a slight chance for a few isolated showers today. However, the vast majority of the area will remain dry. Moisture through much of the boundary layer remains scarce, thus much of the increase in moisture will only result in virga or increased cloud cover. Areas that do see rain will likely only see a couple of drops to a few hundredths of an inch. Additionally, given the inverted-v sounding profile, gusty, erratic winds will be possible around any virga or showers. The greatest chances for any showers look to mainly by from the eastern Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains, and maybe over the higher terrain near the AZ/UT border as well.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Behind the trough, quasi-zonal flow sets in over Arizona. Winds weaken some, but remain breezy and temperatures continue to remain within a couple of degrees of normal. Some gusty winds will remain over portions of eastern Arizona during the afternoon on Tuesday, potentially continuing near-critical fire weather conditions into Tuesday for parts of Apache County.
Thursday through Sunday...Dry conditions and slightly cooler than normal conditions continue into the weekend. Occasional shortwave passes to the north will result some increased afternoon winds. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions remain possible into the end of the week. With the shortwave passes, there remains a chance for a couple isolated showers over the higher terrain near the AZ/UT border. However, at this point in time it's too early to confidently include any mentionable PoPs.
AVIATION
Monday 20/12Z through Tuesday 21/12Z...Southwest winds increase after 15Z becoming 20-30 kts gusting 30-45 kts.
The strongest winds will be north of a KFLG-KSOW line. Winds diminishing overnight. Local visibility reductions possible from wildfire smoke and areas of blowing dust today. Otherwise, VFR conditions. A low chance (15-25%) exists for showers east of a KFLG-KRQE line today which could produce locally erratic and strong wind gusts.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday 21/12Z through Thursday 23/12Z
VFR conditions are expected. West to southwest winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts during the afternoons.
FIRE WEATHER
Today and Tuesday..Dry and windy conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of northern Arizona.
Look for southwest winds 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph across much of the area. Lighter winds are forecast for Tuesday with west winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.
Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions continue with near-normal temperatures. Southwest winds 10-20 mph on Wednesday, increasing to 15-25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-006>017-039-040.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ107>110-112>114-138>140.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 302 AM MST Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong winds are expected today along with slightly cooler temperatures. A few isolated sprinkles or showers will be possible later this afternoon and evening over eastern Arizona, however much of the area will remain dry. Dry, mild, and breezy weather then continues for the remainder of the week.
DISCUSSION
Today...A closed-low off the southern California coast will ejects off the Pacific today, while at the same time a trough moves into the Great Basin. The two systems look to phase together today, leading to a strengthening upper-level jet over Arizona.
Gusty southwest winds ensue over much of the region with the increased pressure gradient. Model soundings for this afternoon show ample mixing potential, allowing for the stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. As a result, wind gusts of 35-45 kts will be possible over a majority of northern Arizona. Locally stronger winds up to 50 kts will be possible in the typical winder locations downwind of the Mogollon Rim into the Little Colorado River Valley.
Given the track of the system, a fairly dry air mass will be in place over the region (especially at the surface). The dry air mass combined with gusty winds will lead to areas of critical fire weather conditions, particularly across the lower elevations north of the Mogollon Rim.
While dry air will be in place for most, a tongue of mid-level moisture looks to into central Arizona this afternoon. Thus, there is a slight chance for a few isolated showers today. However, the vast majority of the area will remain dry. Moisture through much of the boundary layer remains scarce, thus much of the increase in moisture will only result in virga or increased cloud cover. Areas that do see rain will likely only see a couple of drops to a few hundredths of an inch. Additionally, given the inverted-v sounding profile, gusty, erratic winds will be possible around any virga or showers. The greatest chances for any showers look to mainly by from the eastern Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains, and maybe over the higher terrain near the AZ/UT border as well.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Behind the trough, quasi-zonal flow sets in over Arizona. Winds weaken some, but remain breezy and temperatures continue to remain within a couple of degrees of normal. Some gusty winds will remain over portions of eastern Arizona during the afternoon on Tuesday, potentially continuing near-critical fire weather conditions into Tuesday for parts of Apache County.
Thursday through Sunday...Dry conditions and slightly cooler than normal conditions continue into the weekend. Occasional shortwave passes to the north will result some increased afternoon winds. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions remain possible into the end of the week. With the shortwave passes, there remains a chance for a couple isolated showers over the higher terrain near the AZ/UT border. However, at this point in time it's too early to confidently include any mentionable PoPs.
AVIATION
Monday 20/12Z through Tuesday 21/12Z...Southwest winds increase after 15Z becoming 20-30 kts gusting 30-45 kts.
The strongest winds will be north of a KFLG-KSOW line. Winds diminishing overnight. Local visibility reductions possible from wildfire smoke and areas of blowing dust today. Otherwise, VFR conditions. A low chance (15-25%) exists for showers east of a KFLG-KRQE line today which could produce locally erratic and strong wind gusts.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday 21/12Z through Thursday 23/12Z
VFR conditions are expected. West to southwest winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts during the afternoons.
FIRE WEATHER
Today and Tuesday..Dry and windy conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of northern Arizona.
Look for southwest winds 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph across much of the area. Lighter winds are forecast for Tuesday with west winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.
Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions continue with near-normal temperatures. Southwest winds 10-20 mph on Wednesday, increasing to 15-25 mph on Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH 5-15% each afternoon.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-006>017-039-040.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ107>110-112>114-138>140.
Flagstaff, AZ,
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