Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:49 AM   Moonset 4:40 PM

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FXUS64 KTSA 050804 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 304 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Showers and storms will overspread the area today as an upper trough axis will lift northeast from TX into AR and MO tonight. Pockets of heavier rainfall are likely to occur just about anywhere across the forecast area through the afternoon. Locally higher rainfall amounts today and saturated soils from previous convection across the area will maintain the flash flooding threat. Rain will begin to taper off from SW to NE this afternoon and evening as the upper trough lifts through the area. That said, the current expiration time of 00z Monday for the flood watch looks good and will leave as is.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Lingering rain across the NW AR zones should end by 06z, leaving the forecast area dry for rest of tonight much of the daytime on Monday, though some model data hints at some elevated shower and storm potential Monday afternoon across SE OK and NW AR, so will keep a low Pop in those areas. Focus turns to storms that develop along the dryline to west later Monday afternoon in conjunction with an upper trough that lifts from the mountain west region into the high plains Monday afternoon and evening. Potential for some significant severe weather will exist with storms that northeast Oklahoma late in the afternoon or more likely Monday evening.
Greatest coverage/higher end severe potential continues to favor NE OK and NW AR Monday eve/night. Despite lower storm coverage roughly from I-40 to the south, the environment will remain supportive of a higher end severe threat with any storm that develops. Coverage will diminish late Monday night and Tuesday morning, leaving most much of the area in a lull. However, will keep though low PoPs across the eastern sections of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. An uptick in storm chances will come Wednesday with a cold front that enters the area, with some severe potential in place ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening. The boundary will push through the area by Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area starting Thursday. An upper trough in NW flow aloft will clip the area Friday, and may produce a few showers across NE OK and NW AR, however will leave PoPs out for now. Otherwise, settled conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Widespread showers and storms will spread across eastern OK / northwest AR tonight through mid afternoon Sunday. The combination of periodic thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR ceilings will impact flight conditions area wide. Expecting low ceilings to persist in wake of departing precip with continued flight level impacts through Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 61 80 64 / 90 20 20 70 FSM 73 64 83 69 / 100 40 30 50 MLC 73 62 81 67 / 90 10 20 40 BVO 69 57 80 59 / 90 20 20 80 FYV 73 59 80 65 / 100 40 30 70 BYV 70 60 80 65 / 90 50 30 70 MKO 69 60 80 67 / 100 30 20 60 MIO 69 60 80 64 / 90 40 20 80 F10 70 61 80 67 / 100 20 20 50 HHW 72 63 79 69 / 90 10 20 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020- 029.

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