Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Viola, AR
May 20, 2024 5:44 AM CDT (10:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:40 PM Moonset 3:09 AM |
Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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FXUS64 KLZK 200852 AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 352 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Ridging will be noted the next couple of days from the Texas Gulf Coast to the southeast United States. This will result in above to well above average temperatures, and afternoon readings reaching into the lower 90s today/Tuesday in central/southern sections of the state.
Active weather will stay mostly to our north/west. Severe weather occurred in the central/portions of the southern Plains overnight, with a complex of storms in northeast Oklahoma early this morning.
The complex will weaken as dawn approaches, with maybe a few leftover showers in northwest Arkansas as the day begins.
Otherwise, we will watch a potent storm system go from the southwest United States around the ridge toward the upper Midwest tonight/Tuesday. The system will attempt to drag a cold front toward Arkansas, with the front knocking on the door and approaching the northwest corner of the state as the period ends.
As the front nears, there is at least some chance of showers and thunderstorms north of west of Little Rock Tuesday night. The front will limp into the region during the long term, and the pattern will become more unsettled.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
A frontal boundary will be approaching from the NW at the start of the long term period...gradually slowing or stalling by Wed afternoon/evening across far NWRN AR as flow aloft will be parallel to this front. Convection will remain likely along/ahead of this front across much of the CWA from Wed afternoon through early Thu as weak upper waves pass over AR. A more potent upper wave will lift NE over the state late Thu into early Fri...with more convection expected.
The threat for organized SVR storms looks limited initially on Wed...mainly dependent on the instability/SHR in place with the front stalling
However
strong to SVR TSRA will be possible along/ahead of the front where there will be plenty of instability and some SHR...with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats expected. The potential for some more strong/SVR TSRA will again be possible Thu/Thu night as the more potent upper wave passes overhead
Right now
there remain uncertainty on where the heaviest rainfall axis may develop...but some areas could see the potential for some heavy rainfall by the end of the week.
Beyond Thu night/Fri morning...the unsettled pattern looks to continue into the weekend as flow aloft remains WRLY/SWRLY.
However...this activity will primarily be due to afternoon heating and any smaller mesoscale forcing mechanisms. The threat for organized SVR TSRA will also remain limited as a result...but a few strong/SVR TSRA will still be possible into the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions are expected overnight/Monday, with mainly high clouds through the period and a few cumulus Monday afternoon.
A light south/southeast wind is in the forecast overnight. The wind on Monday will be south/southeast at 6 to 12 knots with 16 to 20 knot gusts in places.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 88 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 20 Camden AR 92 68 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 87 67 87 67 / 10 0 0 40 Hot Springs AR 91 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 91 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 91 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 20 Mountain Home AR 87 68 88 68 / 10 0 0 40 Newport AR 89 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 20 Pine Bluff AR 91 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 91 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 20 Searcy AR 90 67 90 71 / 0 0 0 20 Stuttgart AR 90 70 90 73 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 352 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Ridging will be noted the next couple of days from the Texas Gulf Coast to the southeast United States. This will result in above to well above average temperatures, and afternoon readings reaching into the lower 90s today/Tuesday in central/southern sections of the state.
Active weather will stay mostly to our north/west. Severe weather occurred in the central/portions of the southern Plains overnight, with a complex of storms in northeast Oklahoma early this morning.
The complex will weaken as dawn approaches, with maybe a few leftover showers in northwest Arkansas as the day begins.
Otherwise, we will watch a potent storm system go from the southwest United States around the ridge toward the upper Midwest tonight/Tuesday. The system will attempt to drag a cold front toward Arkansas, with the front knocking on the door and approaching the northwest corner of the state as the period ends.
As the front nears, there is at least some chance of showers and thunderstorms north of west of Little Rock Tuesday night. The front will limp into the region during the long term, and the pattern will become more unsettled.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
A frontal boundary will be approaching from the NW at the start of the long term period...gradually slowing or stalling by Wed afternoon/evening across far NWRN AR as flow aloft will be parallel to this front. Convection will remain likely along/ahead of this front across much of the CWA from Wed afternoon through early Thu as weak upper waves pass over AR. A more potent upper wave will lift NE over the state late Thu into early Fri...with more convection expected.
The threat for organized SVR storms looks limited initially on Wed...mainly dependent on the instability/SHR in place with the front stalling
However
strong to SVR TSRA will be possible along/ahead of the front where there will be plenty of instability and some SHR...with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats expected. The potential for some more strong/SVR TSRA will again be possible Thu/Thu night as the more potent upper wave passes overhead
Right now
there remain uncertainty on where the heaviest rainfall axis may develop...but some areas could see the potential for some heavy rainfall by the end of the week.
Beyond Thu night/Fri morning...the unsettled pattern looks to continue into the weekend as flow aloft remains WRLY/SWRLY.
However...this activity will primarily be due to afternoon heating and any smaller mesoscale forcing mechanisms. The threat for organized SVR TSRA will also remain limited as a result...but a few strong/SVR TSRA will still be possible into the weekend.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions are expected overnight/Monday, with mainly high clouds through the period and a few cumulus Monday afternoon.
A light south/southeast wind is in the forecast overnight. The wind on Monday will be south/southeast at 6 to 12 knots with 16 to 20 knot gusts in places.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 88 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 20 Camden AR 92 68 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 87 67 87 67 / 10 0 0 40 Hot Springs AR 91 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 10 Little Rock AR 91 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 91 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 20 Mountain Home AR 87 68 88 68 / 10 0 0 40 Newport AR 89 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 20 Pine Bluff AR 91 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 10 Russellville AR 91 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 20 Searcy AR 90 67 90 71 / 0 0 0 20 Stuttgart AR 90 70 90 73 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Springfield, MO,
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