Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 4:06 AM   Moonset 5:42 PM

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FXUS64 KLZK 062337 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 637 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Some pulse, relatively short lived convection will be possible across southern parts of the state this afternoon/evening with some northward propagation possible. Other than locally heavy downpours, an isolated storm or two may be able to briefly produce gusty winds and hail.

Attention will be to the west of the state this evening and tonight as conditions remain primed for widespread severe weather across portions of OK/KS. Severe storms that develop from central into northern parts of OK this evening are expected to eventually merge into a robust line and head toward W/NW Arkansas. This line of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, torrential downpours and a few tornadoes.

Timing for this activity to reach NW Arkansas looks most likely between 12-2 AM with a continued eastward progression through the early morning hours. Latest CAMs continue to indicate a gradual weakening of activity through 7-8 AM with the northern half of the state most likely to see TS activity. Lowest confidence for early morning precip lies along a corridor from west central to central parts of the state. The southern extent of the line of storms may impact these areas, but that remains uncertain.

Precip will depart by noon with little if any additional showers and storms expected during the afternoon/evening hours on Tuesday.
Most of the state will see highs top out in the 80s F Tue afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

To begin the period, a strong storm system is expected to impact the natural state...By Wednesday, Arkansas is expected to be located within the warm sector of this system with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and air temps in the 80s to lower 90s. With high wind shear and high instability over the region, the chance for severe weather looks likely with this system. All severe weather modes will be possible (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail).

By Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning...the front will begin to move through the state with strong to severe thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Any discrete cells ahead of the main line with pose a greater tornado risk. The line itself will pose a greater damaging straight-line wind threat with quick spin up tornadoes possible. Large hail is also a concern late Wednesday.
Please remain weather aware Wednesday as the threat for severe weather appears likely across much of the state. Changes to the forecast are possible so continue to check back for the latest updates.

QPF values are expected to be highest across central and eastern Arkansas in the long term. These areas could see anywhere from one to two inches...elsewhere, locations could see up to an inch with the least amounts expected across northwestern Arkansas.

Temperatures will be warmest head of the cold front on Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s
Post frontal passage
temperatures will begin to feel more comfortable with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

All sites will begin the period in VFR flight category on Monday evening. A complex of thunderstorms will be making their way into Arkansas and beginning to weakening impacting the central and northern terminals directly by the early morning hours on Tuesday.
However, the CIGS will begin to lower to MVFR and the possibility of IFR CIGS and VSBY at KHOT and KADF along with any northern and central terminals impacted by the decaying thunderstorm complex. VFR category in terms of CIGS will improve to VFR by Tuesday mid-day across all terminals. Expect wind shear Tuesday morning across all sites. Expect surface wind gusts in excess 25 knots across all sites Tuesday afternoon and surface wind gusts in excess of 35+ knots in any thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 69 86 67 87 / 50 40 10 60 Camden AR 69 87 69 89 / 20 10 10 30 Harrison AR 66 83 59 82 / 80 20 0 70 Hot Springs AR 69 86 65 87 / 30 20 20 40 Little Rock AR 72 88 70 88 / 40 30 20 40 Monticello AR 72 88 72 90 / 20 20 10 20 Mount Ida AR 68 86 64 86 / 40 20 10 50 Mountain Home AR 66 84 60 85 / 80 50 0 70 Newport AR 70 85 67 87 / 40 40 10 50 Pine Bluff AR 70 86 70 89 / 20 20 20 30 Russellville AR 68 86 64 85 / 50 40 10 50 Searcy AR 69 86 67 87 / 40 30 20 50 Stuttgart AR 72 85 70 88 / 30 30 20 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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