Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mountain Home, AR

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:22PM Sunday January 16, 2022 3:41 AM CST (09:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 6:35AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mountain Home, AR
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location: 36.34, -92.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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FXUS64 KLZK 160603 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1203 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

AVIATION. 16/06Z TAF CYCLE

Wl cont to see a mix of rain/snow thru the overnight PD at most locations. Precip wl sloly taper off fm the W toward daybreak and early Sun mrng. This wl result in low flight conds, mainly MVFR/IFR, esp where heavier precip occurs. Improving conds are expected Sun as the storm system heads E of AR. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION. (ISSUED 432 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022) SHORT TERM . Today Through Sunday

To sum up this forecast in one simple word: OUCH.

The theme so far has centered on giant snowflakes, high snowfall rates, and model guidance that remains significantly warmer than what has been observed thus far. Model-derived snow accumulation progs? Laughable!

Still, the forecast for western AR including the Ouachitas/Ozarks remains largely on track with the most significant and impactful accumulations in higher terrain (as of 22Z, Chimes is the *known* snowfall winner so far with a measured 8 inches; other locations in the mountains have seen similar and largely elevation- based snow totals). Banded snowfall will continue for the northern counties for at least another few to several hours with rates on the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour in the heaviest bands. This is well reflected in the ongoing Winter Storm Warning with no major changes to northern

Elsewhere, mosaic radar imagery shows rain continuing across eastern sections with snow elsewhere. A thin band of SN/RA/PL resides between the two and continues marching east/southeast with time and patchy freezing drizzle is also occurring. This trend will continue with a transition to all snow by 09Z at the latest. Earlier concerns about marginal temperatures across eastern zones have all but vanished given the likelihood of further increasing CAA as the parent cyclone to our east deepens in earnest overnight.

Add to that the high likelihood of additional snow banding across portions of north-central, northeast, central, and east-central (and perhaps even south-central/southeast AR) and a notable increase in forecast snow accumulation is warranted for the overnight hours. Anticipated average values remain in the 2 to 4 inch range across the warned area (3 to locally 6 inches above 1500 feet); however, a number of models continue showing several transient snow bands with rates in excess of 1 inch per hour through the evening. This will drive up snow totals for those fortunate/unfortunate enough to end up under one (or more . ).

There is also increasing confidence in a primary SW to NE oriented band developing over portions of central and eastern AR overnight, well situated within the TROWAL and supplied with ample moisture and forcing. As such, elected to expand the Winter Storm Warning to include central/east-central counties from Faulkner/Pulaski/Jefferson and points east. While confidence in seeing banded snowfall here is high, where/when this band will really start cranking remains an elusive piece of the puzzle. Further adjustments to ongoing headlines and accumulations may be needed this evening.

Also expanding the Winter Weather Advisory to include the remainder of counties in southern AR. While expected totals here are smaller, 1 to perhaps 2 inches cannot be ruled out over southern sections. Should banded snowfall materialize farther south than currently anticipated, another set of adjustments may be needed.

Concerning wind . as the system further strengthens through tonight, do expect breezy conditions will overspread the remainder of the area. The combination of heavy wet snow and wind speeds approaching 20 to 25 mph (gusts to 30 mph) has already caused tree and powerline damage and this will continue through tonight.

Precip should finally move out no later than Sunday around lunchtime if not earlier, although guidance has tried to slow this exit some, so that bears monitoring as well. Temperatures will rebound into the 30s and 40s by Sunday afternoon.

Despite what may or may not have been forgotten by this point, fingers are going numb and brain is beginning to short-circuit. Thanks for reading!

LONG TERM . Sunday Night Through Saturday

Temperatures will begin to warm into the middle of next week as H500 NW flow becomes zonal and srly sfc flow returns with ridging shifting east of the area. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest by mid week and as a developing H500 shortwave trough passes overhead, some light rain may briefly be possible.

Behind the front, intense sfc ridging will rapidly move while a strong H500 trough swings across the Great Lakes Region. This will provide much cooler air for the later part of the work week into the weekend. Dry conditions will accompany the cold air.

LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday FOR Arkansas-Baxter- Boone-Cleburne-Faulkner-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Jackson- Jefferson-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Newton-Prairie-Pulaski-Searcy- Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday FOR Bradley- Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Garland-Grant- Hot Spring-Johnson-Lawrence-Lincoln-Logan-Montgomery-Ouachita- Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Randolph-Saline-Scott-Yell.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baxter County Airport, AR5 mi48 minN 610.00 miOvercast29°F27°F92%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBPK

Wind History from BPK (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrE4E5N3444NE6NE3NE4
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E6--NE6NE6NE6NE7NE75655N43N6
1 day ago000000SE4S6S3--SE6SE5--SE7SE8SE7SE9SE8SE10SE8--SE100E4
2 days ago000W4W40NW4NW65N9
G18
5N8N6N5N300NW3N300----0

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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